Altcoin Season Could Explode If Bitcoin Holds Above $100K
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Bitcoin spent most of Q2 moving sideways and is now retesting the key $110K resistance as Q3 kicks off. A breakout could push it toward $120K, though it may take time. Standard Chartered also expects BTC to hit $120K by August or September.
However, short-term dips are still expected. Experts say $100,000 is the key level to watch this quarter. If Bitcoin holds above it, the outlook stays strong. But if it falls below, the price could drop to around $88,000, where many buyers might jump in. For now, the market seems to be gearing up for a big move, and any short-term pullbacks could be seen as a chance to buy at lower prices. Let’s see if we are hitting an alt-season or not.
This Altcoin Season Is Different
Looking at the possible scenarios of Q3 2025, a crypto analyst from Selected Investments urges investors to stay alert. Despite the summer lull, key macro events unfolding over the next few months could determine whether Bitcoin and altcoins push toward a final bull market top or fall short.
He compared the previous cycles, wherein Bitcoin peaked roughly 525–546 days post-halving. Applying the same timeline to the April 2024 halving puts the projected top in mid-October 2025. However, the analyst warns that history alone can’t predict outcomes. Unlike past cycles, current macro conditions like tighter global liquidity and elevated interest rates create a vastly different backdrop.
Global Liquidity Tight, But That Could Change Soon
The analyst points to a key metric like global M2 money supply growth. Compared to the liquidity booms of 2017 and 2021, 2025 shows far more constrained conditions. Interest rates remain high, around 4.5%, but analysts now anticipate rate cuts in the coming months. July carries a 25% chance of a 25 bps cut, with probabilities rising to 71% in September and 56% in October for deeper cuts. These would likely boost market liquidity and benefit risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Altcoins Still Quiet, But TVL Signals Underlying Strength
Despite Bitcoin nearing its all-time high at $108K, the Fear and Greed Index is only at 46, indicating a lack of retail interest, a scenario that often precedes explosive moves. The analyst believes this quiet strength is a signal that the altcoin season is still ahead. Total value locked (TVL) in DeFi is nearing $115 billion, not far from the $175 billion peak in 2021, even though altcoin prices remain subdued.
Ethereum’s Next Move Depends on Macro Shifts
Ethereum remains rangebound around $2,500, facing key resistance. The analyst sees a potential breakout if macro conditions improve. Historically, Q4 has delivered outsized gains, with Bitcoin averaging 85% returns and Ethereum 24%. With Bitcoin dominance still high, a meaningful shift could break a full-fledged altcoin rally.
In short, Q3 could be the calm before a storm, especially if rate cuts and liquidity injections align.