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华尔街之饿狼
华尔街之饿狼
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先直接说我的观点:我认为接下来科技股大概率延续见光死剧本,复刻上周谷歌、特斯拉的走势。 注意,海力士的财报也即将发布,也要重点关注! 更具体的分析可以看我上篇帖子。 目前市场对微软、Meta、苹果、亚马逊四大科技巨头的营收已经充分计价。市场普遍预期各家营收稳健增长,Azure、AWS云增速向好,Meta广告、苹果手机与服务收入基本符合预期。本轮财报季的核心矛盾不在营收,而在疯狂扩张的资本开支。 各家巨头的烧钱力度已经完全透支利润空间:Meta全年资本开支上调至1250亿—1450亿美元,亚马逊年度投入超2000亿,微软算力投入同样居高不下。哪怕营收保持20%—30%高增,只要资本开支增速更快,自由现金流和净利润就会被持续稀释。现阶段市场不再炒作AI故事,而是务实算账,赚钱速度跟不上花钱速度,科技股必然迎来估值重估、高位承压。 同样,关键的还有美联储这边,沃什大概率继续打太极。当前经济数据不支持加息,消费持续走弱,但他表态会偏鹰,刻意保留通胀风险担忧,不释放明确降息信号,用口头维稳市场、保留政策主动权,利率维持不变基本是定局。 但存储芯片会成为本轮财报季的逆势催化剂。四大巨头高资本开支,直接坐实AI算力、数据中心需求持续旺盛。目前$SKHY$MU$SNDK 随科技板块深度回调,情绪充分释放。随着巨头财报落地验证需求,存储板块有望率先迎来修复反弹,8月有望跟随现货涨价趋势,再度冲击前高。 传导到加密市场:短期受纳指联动、地缘政治、美联储偏鹰表态、美元强势压制,$BTC 大概率跟随科技股震荡走弱。但中期逻辑不改,AI持续扩产会持续利好分布式算力、去中心化存储赛道,$ETH 长期基本面间接受益。 整体节奏应该就是这样:科技巨头见光承压,存储芯片率先反弹,加密资产先跌后修复,全程取决于AI底层真实需求能否持续兑现。我是已经开了多单,博一一波反弹,吃一口就跑!
华尔街之饿狼
华尔街之饿狼
In the next four days, there's more excitement to watch. Judging from the recent earnings releases, it really is a case of whoever sells falls as well. Let's see if the next few can stop the decline. A slew of major news has all come together: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Microsoft and Meta's earnings, GDP, PCE inflation, and Amazon and Apple earnings all appear in turn. Google, Tesla, and Nvidia have basically delivered their papers ahead of schedule. Google's free cash flow turned negative, and Tesla's profits were cut in half. Don't be fooled by Nvidia's impressive billion-yuan unrealized gains on the books—the absurd valuation and high concentration of customers are obvious risks. Upon closer inspection, it's truly unsettling. Wednesday will be the main event: interest rates are likely to remain unchanged, with the focus on Powell's stance. In my view, I still speak hawkishly, but I dare not truly tighten liquidity. Now, a bunch of tech companies are frantically investing in AI, forcibly taking back their money, and the entire computing power sector is under pressure. Microsoft is closely watching Azure's growth; if it falls below 38%, I will choose to reduce my position. Meta's market has been sluggish for most of the past six months. If Zuckerberg announces another large-scale investment in AI, the funds will most likely flee immediately. On Thursday, the pressure was even greater, with GDP and PCE data released before the market opened. Right now, the market fears stagflation the most; while the economy is slowing, inflation remains high. If inflation remains stuck around 2.5%, high-valuation tech stocks will inevitably remain under pressure. Bank of America estimates Amazon's AWS growth rate at 33%. If the data meets the target, the computing power storage chain of Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Micron still has opportunities; If it doesn't reach that level, the entire sector will fluctuate. Apple doesn't listen much to Cook's empty promises, focusing only on the real sales figures in the Chinese market. A couple of years ago, the market was willing to pay for AI stories, but now investors are much more realistic and focus only on solid cash flow. The next few days will be a thorough investigation. I plan to avoid those targets that only burn money, struggle to realize returns, or have a single client structure. Back to today's market $BTC Currently, the price is oscillating around 65,200-65,400, with 65,700 above serving as a rebound after a breakout, and 66,200-66,500 has become a new resistance zone. $ETH is also climbing slowly, from around 1850 to around 1880. Overall, although the uptrend line has support, the rebound is very weak, and the bulls simply lack momentum. Additionally, although ETF funds occasionally flow in, the overall "price does not follow" indicates that existing funds are fleeing rather than entering increments. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?

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