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Mulight沐光
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大家都觉得AI越来越便宜、越来越免费。但Google刚把今年AI开支调到了2050亿美元，比上季度又多了150亿。而且花的比赚的还多。
不是Google一家。Meta、Amazon、Microsoft这周陆续发财报，市场预期全是超支。Nvidia给OpenAI做了2500亿美元债务担保——分析师原话是"资金链紧张的信号，不亚于需求信号"。
背后的死结很简单：中国AI公司拿不到同等GPU，但模型照样能打。Google被迫降价竞争，收入不涨开支暴涨。所有人都在赌同一件事——先烧钱建数据中心，等对手死光了，活下来的就能赚钱。
问题是你用的那些免费AI工具，靠的就是这种烧钱模式撑着。如果这周几大巨头的财报全是"花太多赚太少"，你猜下一个开始收费的会是谁。
这周Meta、Amazon、Microsoft的财报，可以留意一下资本支出那一栏。
Mulight沐光
Big Tech AI capital expenditure divergence — market fragmentation after Microsoft/Meta/Google earnings reports
Core Data:
- The combined AI capex for the three companies will reach $725 billion in the coming year
- Moody's warns that "unprecedented" spending threatens credit quality
- Data center lease contracts piled up to $850 billion
- However, none of the three companies' earnings reports were slashed by Capex—Microsoft Cloud grew 30+, and Meta reported AI ad ROI for the first time
Two algorithms for the same number—just calculate when free cash flow will collapse, and calculate infrastructure in five years. Amazon Q2 is the final answer sheet.
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