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#WalshInflationRisk Walsh didn’t commit to a September hike at Jackson Hole, but the market clearly heard a warning 🏛️ He said inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions are not restrictive and the labor market is still near full employment. He also pushed back on forward guidance, keeping short-term rates as the Fed’s main policy tool. What stood out to me is how quickly expectations shifted without an explicit promise. September hike odds rose from around 35% to nearly 58%, while the two-year yield moved from 4.22% to 4.35%. Stocks, gold and BTC all fell afterward 📉 To me, this wasn’t a clear signal that a hike is coming. It was a reminder that the Fed doesn’t believe the inflation problem is finished—and doesn’t want markets assuming the path is already decided. September now feels less about one speech and more about which incoming data point breaks the balance first.