Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23: The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention." This week requires verification, with the July FOMC meeting minutes feedback on the Fed's future expectations becoming the focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be latent key risks! The macro environment this week is not optimistic. Market anchors are mainly energy and inflation expectations, while the U.S. economy has already moved from anti-inflation expectations to the dangerous edge of stall prevention. If the already fragile economic expectations for energy rebound, beware of rising "stagflation" expectations. The biggest macro change this week is the shift from macro data to policy interpretation and verification. Last week, our macro data provided three answers: Has inflation spiraled out of control again? Temporarily, no. Has U.S. demand weakened? Yes, and significantly more than market expectations. Is the soft landing expectation valid? The short-term soft landing expectation has been shaken. This week, the data interpretation and verification aim to answer three questions: How hawkish was the July Fed meeting minutes? Is the Fed alert to the risk of economic stall? How does the Fed view the risks of inflation and economic stall? Is the U.S. consumer economy experiencing a short-term stall or an expansion of systemic risk? Are crude oil and Japan reintroducing overall inflation or even U.S. stagflation expectations, as well as liquidity risks!? First, the Fed meeting minutes: How hawkish was July? What were the hawkish focuses? Did it interpret employment risks? Did it anticipate economic stall risks in advance? There are no scheduled Fed official speeches this week, and Wash has no speaking agenda, which means that in the face of last week's data, the market cannot promptly obtain Fed officials'...

August 18 Latest Developments and Analysis on US-Iran: Whether the US Military Strikes or Not, Trump Has Already Lost This War! 1. Iranian officials signal military conflict, counter-threatening the US that if it does not comply within the stipulated period, the flames of war will reignite. From diplomatic pressure to military pressure, Iran's intensity is increasing, starting the countdown to US-Iran military risk #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 2. Houthi forces have begun attacking Saudi warships near the Red Sea, clearly spilling over US-Iran geopolitical risks, 3. Media reports that Saudi Aramco has significantly expanded its crude oil export system bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, clearly preparing for the worst-case scenario of a prolonged unfavorable US-Iran situation. 4. Turkish President Erdogan spoke with Trump, requesting to act as a regional mediator in the US-Iran situation. As a NATO member bordering Iran, this signal means Europe can no longer sit still and is beginning to try to participate in US-Iran mediation through proxies. This is seen as a positive signal but is unlikely to show results in the short term. 5. Kpler statistics show that on Monday, 6 cargo ships passed through the strait, but no VLCC or large LNG tankers, and the usual recovery numbers only count as a rebound rather than a full recovery; the actual situation remains unfavorable. 6. On Tuesday, August 18, a cargo ship attempting to pass through the strait was attacked. It is not yet confirmed whether this was an attack by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The reappearance of suspected attacks at this stage undoubtedly adds to the insecurity of strait passage. 7. Reuters reported that between August 12-16, Saudi Aramco has attempted to load 3 VLCCs

Summary and analysis of the latest US-Iran developments: 1. The Iranian parliament is accelerating the advancement of the "Hormuz Strait Law," with Iran using international legislation to assert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Once the bill is passed, it will not be favorable to the situation in the strait or to Iran's hostile countries led by the US and the West #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 2. The third tanker of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was attacked; military personnel clashes occurred between Iran and Qatar. Previously, it was confirmed that three Iranian pilots were detained by Qatar, which Qatar later denied. As an important regional mediator, Qatar's deterioration of relations with Iran at this time is not a good sign. 3. The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified again that the current agreement with Oman only concerns the shipping route and does not mean the strait will be reopened. Iran continues to maintain a tough diplomatic stance to prevent energy prices from weakening and to ease pressure on Trump. 4. Kpler data records show that only 5 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, zero on Sunday, with a total of 31 ships last week. The actual shipping situation weakening further stimulates energy price increases. 5. Weekend news revealed that the US previously could not confirm whether the negotiation representatives could represent the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (Iran's hardliners), which led to the 60-day ceasefire agreement being quickly overturned. During this period, the US attempted to contact senior Revolutionary Guard officials. However, Iran denied this. This remains a US "psychological warfare" tactic, aiming to stir up conflicts between Iran's internal leadership and the Revolutionary Guard. 6. The 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is nearing expiration, and neither side has clearly stated whether to extend the agreement

Latest news from Iran: Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the shipping map of the Strait of Hormuz. The news is true, but the benefits are limited. Many friends may see this news and think that with the agreement reached, real benefits are coming? Actually, that's not quite right. 1. The shipping map of the strait began key discussions as early as August 5, and passing it now is just an initial stage. This agreement only sets the shipping routes, and does not mean a new joint management agreement of the strait is completed. 2. A complete strait agreement includes the map agreement + management agreement + inspection + fees + security rules to be determined, then the joint text is finalized, and finally the agreement is signed. According to the procedures, this is only the first step. 3. Don't forget the "Hormuz Strategic Act" mentioned by the Iranian parliament yesterday, which has already passed 7 articles. This means that once legislation is successful, even if the strait is passed, Iran has national legislation as proof to refuse passage of any ships from the US, Israel, or any country deemed hostile through its territorial waters. Therefore, the key contradictions between the US and Iran are not yet coordinated, and the strait agreement is difficult to fully achieve. #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 $CL $BZ 4. What to watch next? The focus should shift from US-Iran diplomatic pressure rhetoric. Both sides may have diplomatic rhetoric that does not match private actual communication for negotiation and political needs. Diplomatic rhetoric is needed, but pushing negotiations is another matter. Unless there is an official public statement from the US and Iran, this has some judgment and analysis value for the situation. Attention should be paid to whether the strait agreement continues to be actively promoted and whether shipping vessels in the strait begin to resume navigation.

Compared to Japan's predicament and Sanae Takaichi's extremism in diplomacy and politics, neighboring South Korea seems to have welcomed an outstanding president in modern history. Some media even report that Lee Jae-myung could break the "Blue House curse." Since Lee Jae-myung took office, it is clear that he is a "smart person" in diplomatic politics, skillful and thriving. His policy stance shows reliance on the U.S. for security, economic stability with China, proactive easing with North Korea, and maintaining relations in a relatively balanced state. This is something few South Korean presidents in modern history have achieved, demonstrating Lee Jae-myung's diplomatic ability. As for the media's claim about breaking the "Blue House curse," I believe it can be 100% confirmed, but based on Lee Jae-myung's actions, there is indeed a high probability of breaking the curse. The so-called Blue House curse refers to South Korean presidents having great power during their terms but being politically purged after leaving office, with many presidents meeting unfortunate ends. The core issue is the excessive concentration of power. What has Lee Jae-myung done during his term? a. Acknowledged the existence of imperial-style autocracy in the South Korean presidency and attempted to weaken presidential powers; b. Returned some presidential powers to the National Assembly, strengthening the parliamentary system and its authority; c. Proposed changing the single five-year term system to a four-year term with the possibility of re-election. Looking at these policies together, they aim to weaken presidential power, expand the influence of the National Assembly, balance presidential authority, and introduce a re-election system to extend the term and mitigate the drawbacks of the five-year single term system's maximal use of power. I believe this set of small but strategic moves is Lee Jae-myung's cleverness, especially since he has gained recognition in sensitive diplomatic matters involving China, the U.S., and North Korea during his term.