Going long or short is not as good as waiting. The real big money is made by "sitting" and waiting, not by "trading" frequently. In 1929, Livermore sat still for two years and made 100 million in World War I. In 2008, Buffett held onto cash for a year and bottom-fished Goldman Sachs in the deep pit. Evolutionary instincts urge you to chase gains, fear missing out, and stay restless, but top hunters understand: cash itself is a heavy position. You are not fighting the market, you are fighting yourself. Don’t fear missing small waves; just wait for the moment of global liquidation and bloodbath to pick up the cheapest Bitcoin and U.S. stocks.

Due to sanctions imposed on HTX exchange by the EU Council and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, HTX's situation is becoming increasingly precarious. Thinking about Li Lin selling to Brother Sun was truly a brilliant move. Let's talk about asset placement. Do you think that just because an exchange publishes an asset reserve certificate, it's 100% safe? Often, it's just a snapshot of assets at a certain point in time. Some exchanges can borrow hundreds of millions of dollars from other platforms (such as lending protocols) on the day of the audit to make up the numbers, then after the photo is taken and the audit passed, they immediately transfer the money back. This is a typical case of borrowing money to bridge and falsify accounts. Tracking on-chain data, it was found that HTX's own user assets and reserves were largely misappropriated or stored in another exchange account controlled by Sun Yuchen, Poloniex. Both exchanges share the same owner: Brother Sun. Besides asset commingling, the biggest risk in Brother Sun's ecosystem—HTX, Poloniex, TRON, USDD—is the highly concentrated collateral assets and self-use. The major part of HTX and Poloniex's asset reserves consists of their own issued TRX, HTX tokens, and the algorithmic stablecoin USDD. This is equivalent to using your own stock as collateral to borrow money, then issuing your own tokens as reserves. As long as the coin price fluctuates drastically, this internal cycle chain is very prone to liquidity crashes. So how can retail investors guard against a sudden FTX-style collapse? In the crypto world, no private key means the coins are not truly yours—this is the only truth. Don't treat exchanges like savings banks. When frequently transferring and withdrawing funds between major exchanges, try to top up as needed. Core spot assets not in trading status must be withdrawn back to cold wallets under your own control, especially assets you don't understand for the long term, such as Bitcoin—don't mind the hassle.

Major reversal! Saylor has officially incorporated USDT into the BTC ecosystem. Finally bowed to the fiat world, Layered positioning: BTC = digital capital (value hoarding) STRC = digital credit (fixed income preferred stock) SR-strcUSX hybrid token USDT = daily transaction currency The acceptance of U was forced by debt repayment. The company has fixed annual dividend expenses of over a billion, making it impossible to continuously issue new shares for financing. Introducing U is to build a channel for BTC collateral to exchange for USD stablecoins, avoiding frequent spot sales. The core demand is to solve its own debt liquidity problem. Issuing USD-like credit products backed by BTC collateral will trigger a chain liquidation when the coin price plummets, increasing BTC selling pressure, consistent with the leverage liquidation logic of the past. In summary: the medium to long-term selling pressure on BTC has not been relieved. Looking back, it’s quite awkward that a few years ago Saylor publicly said stablecoins would be gradually shut down by regulators worldwide.

USDT has finally completed its first-ever independent financial audit, receiving the highest praise from KPMG. This effectively confirms the authenticity and compliance of its assets. It also marks an upgrade from an attestation report to a full, genuine audit. Previously, it wasn’t that Tether didn’t want an audit, but the Big Four accounting firms were unwilling to take it on. This time, with KPMG’s signature, it indicates that the regulatory environment and compliance framework have completely thawed. Tether has taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in cash from users and purchased a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, yielding 4% to 5%. Because USDT does not pay interest to holders, the tens of billions of dollars in annual Treasury bond interest income become 100% net profit for Tether. Moreover, Tether has only a few dozen employees, and its profit per capita even surpasses that of Goldman Sachs and Apple. Today, stablecoins have become invisible buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. government is actually very happy to see Tether expand, because every additional USDT used globally is equivalent to helping the U.S. Treasury absorb one more dollar of debt. This is also why, at the macro level, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are gradually accepting and even promoting the compliance of stablecoins. This is also the core reason why Circle (USDC) holds money transmission licenses in the vast majority of U.S. states and is applying for federal-level commercial bank and trust licenses.

Execution is about a lot of real money. The gap between you and experts has never been about what you think in your head, but whether you take action with your hands. In this society, in the end, what matters is who can implement and execute; no matter how high your awareness is, if you don't act, you're just a piece of worthless paper. How does money come? In four words: work your ass off. Don't bring any emotions, don't find any excuses, don't care if your mood is good or not today, just work mindlessly. Many people often say, "I'm not in a good state today, I need to adjust." Adjust my ass! Just work first! Even if you produce garbage content today, it's still ten thousand times better than lying down doing nothing. As long as you don't get knocked down and hospitalized, be relentless and show up every day. People who set up stalls every day can make money, it's very simple. Does the owner of a tobacco and liquor store really understand any profound business logic? Maybe he doesn't understand anything, he just does one thing right: opens the door on time every morning. That's how money is made. Is there any skill in buying lottery tickets? There is skill in picking numbers, but is there any skill in quick picks? But the problem is, do you go for quick picks every day? Some people do win big with quick picks, but you haven't even tried. Some people want to rest on Saturdays and Sundays, celebrate holidays, and go on dates on Valentine's Day. What you need to do is show up every day without fail; this is your most basic and terrifying moat. How can you make money? Look at how poor people think, and do the opposite. Why are poor people poor? Because they care too much about face and emotions. If you want to make money, your skin has to be thick enough to be impervious to knives and guns! Besides making money, all other messy things are insignificant in the face of survival. Many people who can't make money will definitely feel extremely uncomfortable and want to refute after hearing this. That's totally normal! Because they don't understand or accept it, that's why they remain poor. The biggest risk in life is never taking risks, but the outdated beliefs you hold in your mind. Whatever garbage thoughts you have in your mind, that's the kind of garbage life you'll live this lifetime.

The snowball effect of the US debt has gotten out of control. The total size of the national debt is about to break 40 trillion, with interest payments alone at 1.17 trillion, which is more than the annual military budget of 804 billion. US Treasury yields have surged to the highest level since 2007, causing borrowing costs to skyrocket. It's now hard to find projects that offer a stable return of 4.5%-5%, let alone government-backed ones like short-term Treasury bills from Uncle Sam that provide easy returns. Impact on BTC: As risk-free US Treasury yields rise, capital is reluctant to hold interest-free Bitcoin, so the price will continue to be suppressed. Only when the US debt faces a default crisis and the dollar's credit is shaken will Bitcoin's digital gold logic kick in, but it will also experience a sharp drop first.

5 Core Financial Report Metrics in the Munger and Buffett System ROE (Return on Equity): How efficient is the company at making money? (Long-term >15% is considered excellent) Gross Margin: Does the product have pricing power? Is it a moat? (Above 40% means others can't easily replace you) Free Cash Flow: Is the cash on hand real money? (Profit without cash flow is a false prosperity) Debt-to-Asset Ratio: How much has been borrowed? Is the risk of default high? (Preferably below 50%) Dividend Yield (Payout Ratio): Is the company willing to actually pay shareholders? (Daring to pay dividends means real profit)

If you are willing to be with boring people, you are a boring person. If you are willing to follow boring people, you will continue to be a boring person. If you are willing to be with people who love learning and are willing to improve, you are a person who loves learning and progress. If you are willing to be with people who think with their brains, you will gradually become more thoughtful. If you are willing to be with people who only vent their emotions, your world will be filled with emotions, and emotions do not bring any value growth or wealth increase. Staying away from boredom is the best way to keep improving yourself, while following boredom is the best way to gradually degenerate and become trapped. The circle you choose and the things you usually pay attention to determine your cognition and growth space. It took me more than 40 years to realize that I need to keep improving myself, and I will kick away anything that might bring me negative energy. This is something I only started doing this year; although a bit late, I have started. Investment is a journey, never give up the passion to see the world. I often tell my friends that we must constantly replenish our energy, on one hand by seeing the real world, not just things in videos, and on the other hand by reading more books to continuously improve ourselves, rather than having a world filled only with emotions. Finally, about Bitcoin, it is something to hold long-term, a long-term investment, not a short-term behavior, nor a way to casually speculate in the short term. At the same time, never forget the reservoir logic and that it is a very important regulating valve. Especially now after its correlation with the US stock market. Finance is a cruel thing, it is the most silent yet the most lethal weapon. Always have reverence for the financial market. Every day, ask yourself if your day has value, if you have gained or progressed more than yesterday, you cannot fool others. Every night lying in bed, ask yourself, are you wasting energy internally? Or have you overcome yourself and made a bit of progress?

What would happen if OpenAI cannot go public? The core management is pessimistic about the IPO prospects. Taking advantage of the company's 852 billion valuation, they are buying back shares to cash out and leave quickly; no one is willing to lock up shares waiting for the IPO. The market predicts only an 18% chance of going public before 2027. Looking at it now, Musk was really smart to go public early. Competitor Anthropic has an 81% chance of going public and is very likely to get listed first. The COO, second-in-command for business, Sora supervisor, and product head have all left, leaving the management almost hollowed out. In 2025, there was a huge loss of 38.5 billion USD, with extremely high computing costs, and then they spent 70 billion to buy back employee shares to cash out, which is essentially a disguised delay of the IPO. More awkwardly, the CFO and "Ultraman" have serious internal disagreements on the IPO timing, which is what old Buffett meant about the importance of the founding team. Moreover, the secondary market is unwilling to accept the ultra-high valuation of 852 billion; a forced IPO would directly break the issue price, so the company would rather delay than lower the price. After SpaceX went public, its stock price also directly fell below the issue price. Institutions have significantly cooled their confidence in sky-high valued unprofitable AI companies, especially since Musk's narrative also involves rockets and space. Personal views: 1. Going public is also a bubble, continuing to drain liquidity. If it follows Anthropic, there will be even less money in the pool, and with "Ultraman" demanding a high valuation, it becomes even harder. 2. Unprofitable AI companies relying on burning cash have greatly reduced appeal to Wall Street and retail investors. Therefore, today Musk also came out saying OpenAI and Anthropico's Grok AI will surpass all existing AI models. Essentially, it's pretending to band together; don't forget Musk hasn't sold a single share of his stock. MicroStrategy, "Ultraman," Japanese exchange rate, US debt—which one will be the straw that breaks the global economy?

BTC daily Bollinger Bands are extremely tight, with volatility compressed to the lowest level since October 2023, BTC volatility has dropped to freezing point, and the technical crowd is starting to show off. The exact same narrowing pattern back then directly led to a two-year bull market, surging from $20,000 all the way up to a major bull run. Bulls are hoping to replicate that trend. Don't be brainwashed by the idea that history repeating means a big surge. The 2023 bull market was driven by multiple overlapping positive factors; the current environment is completely different. Now inflation is stubborn, MSTR keeps selling coins, and yen carry trade funds can withdraw at any time, lacking the underlying momentum for a rise. It's very risky, and since I say this, you naturally understand, market makers in crypto manipulate the market to draw standard technical patterns, attracting retail investors to chase longs, then spike and harvest long positions, with fake breakouts accounting for over 40%. Also, bears warn: there are many macro negatives, and a pullback to the 57,800 support level is possible. Actually, predicting the market at this time is a sign of boredom; at this stage, investing in Bitcoin boils down to one word: wait.