#闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 SanDisk's recent surge is a bit outrageous, but what I think is truly worth watching isn't how much it has risen, but whether these long-term agreements are really valuable. SNDK jumped about 35% last week, with the latest close around $1641. The market's excitement isn't just about "strong AI demand." What SanDisk now holds is something more concrete: Long-term agreements with 8 customers, with a total contract value of approximately $93.9 billion. These agreements are expected to cover about half of the bit demand in FY2027, increasing to about two-thirds by FY2028. The biggest significance for SanDisk isn't just selling a few more SSDs. Previously, the NAND industry was very cyclical; when prices dropped, profits took a rollercoaster ride. Now SanDisk aims to use long-term contracts to lock in demand and prices for the coming years in advance. If they can really achieve this, SanDisk won't just be an "AI storage concept stock." But I still dare not chase blindly. After such a big rise in one year, the market's expectations are no longer just "good performance," but must continuously exceed expectations. So what really needs to be verified next is whether these contracts can be converted into profits. Half the story has already been told. The remaining half depends on the financial reports to prove it. Do you think SNDK can keep surging, or has this wave already priced in expectations for the next few years? #闪迪 #SNDK #AI #存储芯片 #美股

What BTC fears most now may not be the Federal Reserve, but oil prices. The market suddenly feels a bit off today. The ceasefire between the US and Iran ended, and Iran has sent out tougher signals, reigniting risks in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, crude oil has risen for the third consecutive day, with Brent crude back above $91 per barrel. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.72%, and the 30-year yield even surged to 5.32%. (Reuters) The most interesting thing is: BTC is only around $64,000 now. Many might wonder: What does rising oil prices have to do with BTC? Actually, it’s very related. If oil prices keep rising, the biggest problem isn’t just more expensive gasoline. It’s that: Inflation could rise again. Once inflation picks up, the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates will be squeezed, and the market might even start discussing "maintaining high rates for longer." This is not good news for risk assets like BTC. So now I actually think: What BTC really needs to watch next isn’t just Fed speeches, but the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. If the conflict cools down and oil prices fall back— BTC might trade based on expectations of rate cuts again. But if oil prices keep pushing toward $100— Risk assets might suffer again. So this time, I won’t guess whether BTC will go up or down tomorrow. I’ll just watch crude oil. What do you think: If oil hits $100, will BTC crash along with it, or will it instead be seen as a safe haven by investors? #BTC #Bitcoin #CrudeOil

#OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 OpenAI and Anthropic are no longer competing over whose model is stronger. They have started competing over who can reach the trillion-dollar level first. The latest news shows that Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate has exceeded $65 billion, while OpenAI is currently around $40 billion. Anthropic is even expected to pursue an IPO later this year. Even more astonishing, the market's valuation expectations for Anthropic have begun to approach $2 trillion, with some secondary market trades pushing its valuation to about $1.5 trillion. But here, I want to pour some cold water. The revenue growth is indeed fierce, but the valuation has also gone crazy. Anthropic still needs to continuously invest huge sums in computing power, model training, and hiring. What investors are buying now is essentially expectations for its income and profits in the coming years. The same goes for OpenAI. So, the final competition might not be about "whose model is smarter." Instead, it is: Who can truly turn the insane AI computing costs into sustainable cash flow. If AI really becomes the next generation infrastructure, today might just be the beginning for these two companies. But if future growth is not as fast as expected... This trillion-dollar valuation now could also fall without mercy. Do you think OpenAI will win in the end, or will Anthropic be the first to reach a trillion dollars?

SanDisk's recent surge is a bit outrageous, but I think what's really worth looking at isn't how much it has risen, but whether these long-term contracts are actually valuable. SNDK jumped about 35% last week, with the latest close around $1641. The market is so excited, but the core reason isn't just "strong AI demand." It's that SanDisk now holds something more concrete: Long-term contracts with 8 customers, with a total contract value of about $93.9 billion. Moreover, these contracts are expected to cover about half of the bit demand in FY2027, increasing to about two-thirds by FY2028. The biggest significance for SanDisk isn't just selling a few more SSDs. Previously, the NAND industry was especially cyclical; when prices dropped, profits took a rollercoaster ride. Now SanDisk wants to use long-term contracts to lock in demand and prices for the next few years in advance. If they can really achieve this, SanDisk won't just be an "AI storage concept stock." But I still don't dare to chase blindly. After such a big rise in one year, the market's expectations for it are no longer just "good performance," but it must continuously exceed expectations. So what really needs to be verified next is whether these contracts can be converted into profits. The story is already halfway told. The remaining half needs to be proven by the financial reports. Do you think SNDK can keep surging, or has this wave already priced in expectations for the next few years? #SanDisk #SNDK #AI #StorageChips #USStocks $SNDK

With the current situation in the US stock market, is it better to go long or short? I'm not sure how to decide.

#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 American consumers are starting to hesitate to spend, but the Federal Reserve is now reluctant to ease too soon. In July, U.S. retail sales dropped 0.6% month-over-month, the largest decline in 14 months and the first decrease after nine consecutive months of growth. This indicates one thing: American consumers are really starting to struggle a bit. But the awkward part is, inflation hasn't fully come down yet. July's CPI was up 3.4% year-over-year, core CPI 2.5%, still noticeably above the Fed's 2% target. So September is tough for the Fed: The economy is cooling down, giving reason to cut rates. Inflation is still above 3%, so they dare not easily loosen policy. This is the most troublesome part right now— It's not that the economy is too hot, nor that it has collapsed, but that it has entered a phase of "the more it cools, the more tangled it gets." For BTC and the U.S. stock market, I actually think this is more worth watching than just simple rate hikes or cuts. If employment and inflation continue to cool down, the market will start pricing in rate cuts again. But if oil prices and inflation suddenly rebound, risk assets might get hit again. Right now, if you ask me to bet on September in advance, I won’t. Do you think the Fed will cut rates in September, or keep things steady? #美联储 #BTC #比特币 #美股 #通胀

The most awkward thing about BTC right now is that despite more and more positive news, the price is becoming increasingly lackluster. Inflation and employment data haven't worsened significantly, and market concerns about the Fed continuing to raise interest rates are also declining. Yet BTC is still hovering around $63,000. What's more troublesome is that the US SEC suddenly canceled the scheduled meeting to discuss crypto regulation, and the CLARITY Act will have to wait until after the Senate recess to move forward. Meanwhile, demand for BTC ETFs has also clearly cooled off. (Reuters) In short, what's missing in the market now isn't news. What's missing are people willing to put real money in. In the past, whenever a regulatory positive came out, the crypto community would immediately shout bull market. Now? “Oh, got it.” Then it continues to trade sideways. 😂 So I'm actually not in a hurry to bottom-fish right now. If BTC can't hold above $64,000, I'd rather keep waiting. What's truly worth chasing isn't the "good news," but when the price finally starts moving up on its own after the good news comes out. If it drops another round this time, will you buy the dip? I won't buy yet. I'd rather earn less for a while than try to guess the bottom again. #BTC #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #SEC #CLARITYAct $BTC

#霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 If the Strait of Hormuz really reopens, crude oil might drop first, but I think the market hasn’t fully priced this in yet. Lately, everyone is waiting for one result: Will the US-Iran negotiations really come to fruition, and when will the Strait of Hormuz truly resume normal navigation? The problem is, it’s not at the "deal reached" stage yet. According to the latest news, commercial vessel traffic through Hormuz is still below the August average, and two UAE oil tankers were recently attacked by drones while passing through the strait. Brent crude rose to $88.52/barrel on Friday, up about 6% for the week. (Reuters) So the current crude price is actually trading on two completely opposite expectations: Deal reached → shipping resumes → risk premium drops → oil price may quickly fall. Negotiations stall → shipping risks continue → oil price remains supported by geopolitical risk. And even if a deal is announced, I don’t think all tankers will resume operations the next day. Insurance companies and shipping firms need to see a period of safe navigation before they can truly lower the risk premium. (The Wall Street Journal) So right now, I’m actually hesitant to chase crude oil. A deal might be good news for the economy, but for those who bought crude at high levels, it might instead mean "good news is already priced in." What do you think will happen next: Hormuz reopens, and oil prices plunge? Or: Negotiations drag on, and crude surges again? I’d rather wait for the deal to truly be finalized before placing bets. #CrudeOil #StraitOfHormuz #USIranNegotiations #Gold #Bitcoin

The most annoying thing about BTC right now isn't the drop, but that no one is buying even when good news comes. BTC has slipped back to around $63,000. The most awkward part is, this time it's really not that there is no good news. US inflation and employment data haven't worsened significantly, so risk assets should theoretically breathe a sigh of relief. So what happened? BTC still can't rally. What's more troublesome is that the US SEC's originally scheduled crypto regulatory meeting was suddenly canceled, and the CLARITY Act will have to wait until after the Senate recess to move forward. The market is suddenly confused. The feeling now is: Rate cut expectations: noted. Regulatory benefits: noted. ETF: noted as well. And BTC: "Fine, I'll keep falling." 😂 This actually makes me more cautious than a simple crash. Because a real bull market doesn't need daily reasons; the money flows in by itself. Now, on the contrary, every bit of good news needs a long explanation, yet funds still hesitate to chase. Currently, BTC is hovering around $63,000, and weakening ETF demand is also putting pressure on the price. So I'm not guessing the bottom now. If $64,000 doesn't hold, I'll keep waiting. If it really breaks through, I'd rather get in a bit later. In this kind of market, the biggest fear isn't missing out, it's thinking you've bottomed out only to find there's a basement below. Do you still dare to buy BTC now? #BTC #Bitcoin #SEC #Cryptocurrency #FederalReserve $BTC