Welcome everyone! Feel free to ask questions, discuss the market, and chat here. I will post some real-time news in the group, such as earnings reports, non-farm payroll data, etc. $BTC I hate you, hurry up and go up, is it possible that the rate hikes are just a smokescreen? #PPI、CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days

#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 As soon as the dot plot came out, I felt a chill. More hikes are coming. The first rate hike in three years has just landed, and there are more to come. I glanced at my $BTC long position, and the unrealized loss has already hit -55.64%, with the liquidation price hanging at 67,919. Every day I open my eyes to a sea of red, a slow, dull knife cutting into my holdings—it's really torturous. Someone asked me how much longer I have to hold on; how would I know? Cut losses? After holding on for so long, all the biggest shocks have already exploded. Cutting now would mean all the nights endured and every margin top-up wasted. Add more positions? The bullets are all spent; the little U left in the account must be kept to prevent liquidation. It's a deadlock. I won’t look anymore; the more I look, the more anxious I get. I closed the app. Until the liquidation price breaks, I’ll just consider this money "dead" in there. I won’t guess where the bottom is, nor try to figure out how to get out. If I can’t beat the market with skill, I’ll just rely on who has the stronger will to survive.

#波动雷达：币种异动观察 25 basis points, 4.00%. It landed. $BTC dropped to 75,288 then pulled back to 76,000. I watched all night, my eyes are sore. It didn’t crash, that’s a good thing, I guess. Then the dot plot came out. 19 people, 16 think it still needs to be raised. I really... stared at that number for a long time, speechless. At the start of the year, 8 people said no hikes this year, now none remain. It’s not just one hike, it has to continue. My long position, entered at 80,619, now at 76,100. Floating loss nearly 40%. Liquidation price 67,891. Every day I open the account it’s in the red. The small profits from $HYPE grid arbitrage all went into this. Staying up late watching the market, and this is all I got. Cut losses? Impossible. I’ve held for over a month, cutting now would mean all the previous endurance was for nothing. Add more? No money left. There’s a press conference at 2:30. No guesses. Just sitting and waiting. No move. No hike. No cut. Let’s wait until after tonight.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ What was bound to happen has happened: a 25 basis point hike, pushing the rate directly to 4.00%. Looking at the news you sent, I don’t feel as panicked as I imagined, just a deep sense of powerlessness. The market had priced in a 92.5% chance of a rate hike, and now that the shoe has dropped, no miracle occurred. But what really gives me chills is this line: "The median of the dot plot shows one more rate hike in 2026. The committee unanimously agreed on this rate decision." Last meeting was split 9 to 3 internally; this time it passed unanimously. There’s no "bad news fully priced in," only "Higher for Longer." The Fed not only raised rates but clearly told you: this isn’t over. They want to press inflation back to 2% "more timely," which means rates will be stuck high. After more than a month of enduring slow, painful losses every day, watching $HYPE grid trades claw back profits bit by bit, all filling the bottomless pit of this $BTC long position. Now that the rate hike hammer has fallen, I feel calm instead. At 2:30, Walsh will hold a press conference; his words will be the key going forward. If he continues hawkish rhetoric, forced liquidation prices might really be tested. If he softens a bit, it could leave some breathing room for the market.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ At 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, with a 92.5% probability of a rate hike, it can be said that the rate hike is already a sure thing; the market has basically priced in these 25 basis points in advance. I stared at the "core conclusion" in the chart for a long time — "What truly determines asset prices is how Waller defines this action and how much more he plans to raise next." This sentence is like a knife hanging over my head. The three scenarios listed in the chart are basically my life and death ledger going forward. If it’s "stop after 1-2 hikes," that would be great news for me; all the bad news would be out, turning into good news. My $BTC long position, currently down 60% (liquidation price 67,891), might get a chance to recover some serious losses. But if it’s "more than 3 consecutive hikes," with US Treasury yields continuing to surge and the dollar strengthening, I will most likely face liquidation. The current situation is truly surreal. The White House (Trump) wants rate cuts, the bond market (10-year Treasury yield breaking 5%) is forcing hikes, and Waller is caught in the middle, still trying to maintain the Fed’s fragile independence. I glanced at my account; $BTC at 80,619 is cutting into my flesh with a dull knife every day. The earlier CLARITY Act failure already dealt a heavy blow, and if Waller remains hawkish again tonight, I might really not hold on.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 6 hours left until the Federal Reserve announces the interest rate decision. The market pricing now is almost all in, betting on a rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has surged to 92.4%. 📉 Market situation on the eve of the decision · $BTC: Bulls are being crushed. Hit by the dual blows of the CLARITY Act failing to pass and rate hike expectations, BTC once dropped to a four-week low of $75,026, currently struggling around $75,600-$76,200. Market analysis suggests that if it breaks below $75,000, the next support level could be around $69,000-$70,000. ⏰ Three scenarios at 2:00 AM 1. Baseline scenario (highest probability): A 25bp rate hike, raising rates to 3.75%-4.00%. The key is to watch Waller's wording and the dot plot; if he hints this is just a "recalibration" rather than the start of consecutive hikes, the market may see a "sell-off exhaustion" rebound. 2. Hawkish surprise: If Waller sends a strong signal at the press conference or the dot plot shows more hikes before year-end, tech stocks and high-valuation sectors will continue to be under pressure. 3. Dovish surprise (very low probability): If the Fed holds steady, Deutsche Bank strategists point out this would be the "biggest dovish surprise" at a routine meeting since 1994.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The CLARITY Act did not pass, with a 47-47 tie, not even reaching the 60-vote threshold. When I saw this number, I sat in my chair stunned for a while. Not because it was unexpected, but because it was frustrating. This bill passed the House with 294 votes, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, took over a year, and finally got stuck on the question of whether government officials can profit from crypto. The market reacted quickly. $BTC directly fell below 75,000, Circle dropped over 12%, Coinbase dropped over 11%. My account experienced another round of drawdown; that long position at 80,619 is now showing even more unrealized losses. Right now, there’s only one thing on my mind: tonight’s early morning FOMC. The probability of a rate hike has already climbed above 87%, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both turning bearish. Core CPI month-over-month at 0.3% exceeded expectations, PPI stuck at 5.4%, oil prices and long-term US Treasury yields remain high. Last week at Jackson Hole, Waller made it clear—the tightening stance won’t change until inflation hits 2%. But I still hold a sliver of hope. The market has priced in a 90% chance of a rate hike; if it really happens, it would be a classic case of “bad news fully priced in.” Goldman Sachs also said the FOMC would want to avoid market reactions triggered by keeping rates unchanged.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The US stock market is about to open, will it go up or down today? Honestly, I really can't guess, but the current situation is especially awkward. The FOMC is just before dawn tomorrow, with a 90% probability of a rate hike, and the whole internet is betting on a 25 basis point increase. At times like this, bulls dare not act rashly; even the slightest stir can trigger a sell-off. I'm afraid the US stock market will open low and smash $BTC down to 74,000 or even 72,000. But on the other hand, the market has already priced in the "rate hike" expectation fully. If the US stock market opens low and then rises tonight, or directly ignores the negative news and surges upward, then as long as the FOMC is slightly dovish tomorrow, it will be a typical case of "bad news fully priced in turning into good news," and BTC will pull back to 80,000, giving me some breathing room on this position. Looking at the market, $XRP is still in the green, at least it's rising. Then looking at the positions still losing money in my hands, it's really frustrating. The $HYPE grid is still tirelessly arbitraging, earning some small change all to fill the bottomless pit that is BTC.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ With the FOMC announcement imminent, the whole internet has gone crazy. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and HSBC all flipping their stance. Reuters surveyed 101 economists, and 86 expect a 25 basis point hike. Interest rates are expected to reach 3.75%-4.00%. The reasons are clear—PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, CPI month-on-month at 0.4%, oil prices and long-term US Treasury yields all stuck at high levels. I took another look at my BTC long position. Average price 80,619, mark price 77,676, unrealized loss 37.89%, down 74U. To avoid liquidation, the forced liquidation price is tightly held at 67,891. This position has been held for over a month; every morning I open my account to a slow, painful loss—it’s really wearing me down. The funniest part is Trump and Hassett still shouting: "No reason to raise rates!" No matter how many tweets the blond guy posts, it’s useless. If the Fed listened to the president, what independence would it have? Besides, with those inflation numbers on the table, even seasoned players like Goldman Sachs have accepted it. How could Warsh back down now? The only comfort I have now is those $HYPE grids. Hustling to arbitrage hundreds of times daily, making a few small gains. But in the end, it all went into $BTC, this bottomless pit.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Why is the Fed so stubbornly holding onto rate hikes right now? It's precisely because AI capital is expanding wildly, data centers are being built like crazy, pushing energy and chip prices through the roof, making inflation impossible to bring down. At this moment, instead of helping to cool things off, Trump is shouting "AI is surging" and telling them not to hit the brakes. If you keep flooring it here, inflation expectations dropping is just a fantasy! CPI data just came out, core monthly rate at 0.3% slightly above expectations, and the probability of a rate hike shot up to 90%. I'm staring at my $BTC long position opened at 80,619, floating at a -40% loss, with the forced liquidation price stubbornly stuck at 67,878. Every day it's a slow bleed, I was hoping for a breather at the FOMC on September 17, but the blond guy is still furiously adding fuel to the inflation fire. A few days ago he said the White House has no reason to raise rates and wants to maintain the status quo, then turned around and started posting about AI hype. So the rate hike blade isn't falling on you, huh? You really don't feel the pain. AI surging is indeed a good thing, and a technological revolution is definitely needed, but at this critical moment, your hot air is precisely stepping on the liquidation line of my long position. Forced liquidation price at 67,878, FOMC is coming soon, half of my fate is in the hands of Powell, and the other half is damn well in the hands of this "strong and smart" president.

#特朗普接受新版伦理条款, the CLARITY vote approaches Trump actually compromised. The latest news is that he has made concessions on the ethical provisions of the CLARITY Act. Let's briefly summarize. On September 15, which is tomorrow, the Senate will hold a procedural vote. This vote is not final, but it requires 60 votes to proceed. The Republican Party only has 53 seats, meaning at least 7 more Democrats need to vote. Previously, it was stuck tightly because of ethical clauses; Democrats insisted on restricting the president and officials from making money in crypto, while Trump's own business was out of the question. Now he's taken a step back and accepted 80%, which is definitely a crucial step. If it passes tomorrow, regulatory certainty will be in place, and the division of labor and token classification between the SEC and CFTC will become much clearer, which is a huge boon for the entire industry. But! I glanced down at my $BTC long position at 80,619. Even if the bill passes tomorrow, it's still a long-term positive and won't put out the immediate fire. The market is now focused on the September 17 FOMC, with the probability of a rate hike pushed to over 90%. The bill is a good bill, but my life now is in Walsh's hands. Tomorrow I'll check the voting results first, then wait a couple more days to see the Fed. Hopefully, double good news will arrive, so even my long position can catch my breath.