#Employment data densely released, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny The probability of a rate hike in September surged to 66%, $BTC reached 77,000, the test has just begun. Woke up to find BTC already dropped to around 77,200. After Wash's speech, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to over 60%, and Ball added another push, now peaking at 66%. The 2-year US Treasury yield hit a one-month high, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets collectively came under pressure. Barclays even revised its forecast to predict one rate hike each in September and December. There are still three key data releases this week: JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The market expects an increase of 50,000 to 80,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Wash has already set the market to "data-sensitive mode," where any number could trigger sharp volatility. September is already called Rektember, one of the worst months historically, and this year it’s compounded by rate hike expectations and geopolitical risks. The next move for BTC depends on whether this week's employment data shows some favor.

#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO The Cook era officially ends, a new CEO takes office, and Apple stands at a crossroads. On September 1, Cook officially stepped down as Apple's CEO and became the Executive Chairman of the Board, with John Ternus taking over. When Cook took over in 2011, Apple's market value was less than $350 billion; now it has reached $4.6 trillion. Since Cook took office, Apple's stock price has risen by 2275%, and the total return including dividends has reached 2736%, while the S&P 500 rose 769% over the same period. Ternus has worked at Apple for 25 years, always responsible for hardware engineering, managing product lines including iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, and even Vision Pro. He is a typical "hardware veteran," obsessing over details—finding 35 grooves when the specification required 25, and arguing on the spot. He has taken over, but also inherited problems: Apple is clearly behind in AI, not building data centers on a large scale like Microsoft and Google. Siri's AI capabilities still rely on Google support, and several AI executives have left for Meta. Ternus's first big test after taking office is the September 9 fall launch event, where the first foldable iPhone will likely debut. For those holding Apple shares, the CEO change itself is not a reason to sell; historically, such internal smooth transitions have little impact on stock prices. What really determines the direction is whether the new CEO can find a new position for Apple in AI. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $AAPL

The big players are still buying, BTC and gold have started moving in sync. Strategy paused for ten weeks and finally took action last week. Sold some stocks to raise $600 million, spent $370 million to buy 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318. Total holdings reached 845,000 BTC, total cost $63.7 billion, average price $75,412, currently still showing floating profit. BitMine is even more aggressive, not stopping for 65 consecutive weeks, last week added 53,501 ETH, total holdings reached 5.9 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of total supply. Moreover, 86% is staked, generating $335 million in annual interest alone. One is hoarding BTC, the other is hoarding ETH, both moving at their own pace. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持 The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has reached 0.53, near historical highs. Previously it moved with the Nasdaq, now it moves with gold, as capital prices it as an "anti-devaluation" asset. Bloomberg analysts also say BTC's volatility structure is increasingly similar to gold. ETF funds are flowing in simultaneously, with gold ETFs and BTC ETFs both attracting money. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Whether orders can turn into real cash. Broadcom takes over on Wednesday, the custom AI chip is the next test point. $AVGO $DELL Big players are buying, macro is changing, earnings season is verifying. No rush to move at this position, wait until it lands. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验

Is Xiaomi at the bottom yet? The market looks weak indeed, hovering around 3.5, corresponding to 27.6 HKD. It has dropped from 59.9, nearly halving—quite brutal. Smartphone shipments fell 26.5% in Q2, but ASP hit 1351 yuan, a record high. They actively cut low-end models because storage chip prices surged too much to bear. Volume is down but prices are up; this is a deliberate adjustment, not a crash. The car business is still burning cash; the Pengcheng SUV launches in September, and R&D spending keeps rising, with 9.2 billion yuan invested. No profits in the short term, but cash on hand is sufficient. Research reports still give high target prices; institutions like Dongwu are still recommending buy. Management says the toughest times are almost over, and flagship phones will launch in the second half. I think this level is the bottom area, but it will take time to bounce back. Let's wait for smartphone gross margin stabilization and Pengcheng delivery data before deciding. Cutting losses at this level isn't very cost-effective. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI

$ZEC dual strategies have been running for 8 days, with the short position at 76% and the long position at 29%. Two Martingale strategies for ZEC have been running for over a week. The short position with 7x leverage ran for 45 cycles, accumulating a profit of 30.77U, a return rate of 76.94%. The average opening price was 837.68, current price is around 847, and the arbitrage profit has already covered the floating loss, so the cost basis was established long ago. The take profit is set at 828, which is still $20 away from the current price, just waiting. The long position with 5x leverage ran for 4 cycles, earning 11.57U, a return rate of 28.93%. The average opening price was 859.91, current price is 847, and only 2 out of 9 add-on opportunities have been used, so there is still plenty of ammo. The take profit is set at 895, leaving a $50 space. Both strategies run simultaneously, the short position capitalizes on pullbacks, the long position waits for a breakout, covering each other's risks. On the market front, ZEC has risen from 500 to 870 in the past two weeks, experiencing short-term high-level oscillations, washing back and forth between 805-870. The open interest remains above 1.5 billion, leverage is still heavy, and the direction is not yet clear. The position profit buffer is thick enough, no rush to move, just wait for the take profit to trigger. #玩转策略 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 /$ZEC #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元

#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 I will hold long-term, but only with $BTC, $ETH, and $OKB. For long-term holding, I only choose assets with deep liquidity and solid fundamentals. BTC and ETH are consensus-level, while OKB is within the exchange ecosystem; the logic differs but all are solid. I treat BTC as digital gold: fixed total supply, regulatory easing, institutional entry—long-term outlook is to outperform inflation without issue. ETH is the underlying asset of the entire public chain ecosystem, with increasing staking rates, tightening circulating supply, recovering on-chain transaction volume, and new developments at the application layer. OKB’s logic is a bit different—they have locked the supply side, and demand grows through the X Layer and ecosystem applications; the longer the time, the more apparent the scarcity. I won’t hold small coins long-term. Liquidity is too shallow, narratives change too fast, making it hard to hold and sleep well. My long-term holdings are only these three; the rest of my positions are for short-term opportunities—take profits and run.

#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 SanDisk Kioxia plans to invest $31 billion to expand production, the NAND supply and demand reassessment has begun early. Just saw the news, SanDisk and Kioxia officially announced plans to invest $31 billion by 2032 to expand NAND flash production in Japan, targeting the Yokkaichi and Kitakami factories, mainly focusing on high-capacity flash for AI data centers. This money is not spent in vain. Kioxia's performance has already surged, the NAND price increase cycle is very strong, AI inference has changed the demand structure, and the supply-demand gap can continue until 2027. Goldman Sachs is even more aggressive, saying the tight situation could last until 2028. However, the market doesn't see it that way. When the news came out, SanDisk's stock price barely moved, still hovering between 1480-1500. Because what everyone fears is: if you expand production, price increases will stop. The painful lessons from previous cycles are there. But this expansion timeline extends to 2029, so it doesn't create actual supply pressure in the short term, more like reserving a spot for the super cycle after 2027. Also, this money will likely come through joint ventures and government subsidies, not just SanDisk bearing it alone. So, the long-term logic hasn't changed, the short-term market is still digesting. I'll watch first and wait for the direction to become clear.

#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens $BTC and $XAU have started to become close allies. I came across a Grayscale report showing that BTC has recently decoupled from the Nasdaq, instead moving closer to gold. The 90-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from over 60% to 33%, while the correlation with gold has surged from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%. The head of Grayscale research said the driving force behind this is the return of "currency depreciation trades"—the US federal debt has just surpassed 40 trillion, long-term government bond yields are rising, and capital is starting to seek scarce assets for hedging outside of government bonds. BTC has no central bank and a fixed total supply, making it increasingly like an "alternative gold" in this environment. Grayscale believes BTC is shifting from high-beta tech stocks to scarce macro assets. Gold is currently around 4470, BTC around 78400, and the correlation is still rising. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, the market lacks direction, so let's wait for the US stock market to open and see.

$ZEC shot straight up, and the short position profits are almost completely gone. Just checked the market, ZEC went directly from around 800 to 844, pushed straight up with no pullback. The shorts are in a tough spot. Entry average price was 819.02, 7x leverage, profits shrank from 70% down to 58%, the floating loss has eaten up a big chunk of the profits. The take profit is set at 810.02, but the current price is still over 30 dollars away, so the profits are just bleeding back. The longs are actually comfortable. Entry average price 833.67, 5x leverage, previously down 6%, now turned positive with over 5% floating profit. Added positions 9/9 fully used, held on hard and finally caught the rebound. Take profit is set at 867.86, still over 20 dollars away from triggering. The reason for this straight push up is quite clear. The Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) has been listed on NYSE Arca, managing assets over $310 million. Grayscale reported that Zcash's market cap is still less than 1% of Bitcoin's; if it reaches 2% of BTC's market cap, the price could hit $1622. Once this expectation came out, funds rushed in. On the chart, 815-825 is the key short-term resistance; after breaking through, the next target is 850-870. Support is around 775-785. The shorts can still hold on; it just depends on when the 810 take profit triggers. Nothing is certain until the end. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元

$TRUMP coin reminds me of the former $LAB, but its lifespan should be infinitely longer. These past two days, seeing TRUMP fluctuate between 2.5-3.0 suddenly reminded me of the previous LAB. But TRUMP is different from LAB. The core difference is: TRUMP is the president coin. The total supply is 1 billion, with entities associated with Trump, CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight LLC, controlling 80% of the tokens, unlocked over three years. From a tokenomics perspective, there are indeed similarities—high concentration and future unlocking pressure. But its lifespan is much longer than LAB. LAB was a meme coin issued by the project team, pumped and dumped to zero. TRUMP is backed by the current US president; as long as Trump remains in office, this coin has topic appeal, traffic, and market. Moreover, it is issued on the Solana chain and has become one of the largest Meme coins on-chain, with a stable 24-hour trading volume exceeding 1 billion USD. The price trend is similar too. LAB also fluctuated wildly, pumped up and dumped hard, relying on low liquidity and high control. TRUMP is now repeatedly oscillating between 2.5-3.0, going up and down, somewhat resembling LAB's previous pattern. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$TRUMP #TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？