$BTC Daily Market Update Due to the attack on the Hormuz oil tanker, the global bond decline, and concerns about US interest rate hikes, the Nasdaq failed to show strength. But from the chart perspective, the time has only been extended, and ultimately it will still follow the pattern where a breakout inevitably occurs. In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins' total market capitalization are all in the same position. All three assets are supported by a 12-hour uptrend, and from the daily chart, the decline is limited due to long-term adjustments. In the end, I believe that with news that changes the market direction and Nasdaq clearly breaking out of the downtrend, cryptocurrencies will also break out of the downtrend and see a strong rise within this week.

BTC Weekly Chart Comparison: The Essential Difference Between This Bear-Bull Transition and the Previous One From the BTC weekly chart, this bear-bull transition shows a distinctly different moving average evolution compared to the last cycle: the weekly SMA 50 is very unlikely to cross below the SMA 200. Comparing to the previous bear-bull transition (marked on the left side of the chart), at that time the coin price oscillated at a low level for a prolonged period, causing the SMA 50 and SMA 200 to intersect; But observing the current structure, the difference is very clear: Cycle is significantly shorter: This adjustment cycle is notably shorter than the previous one. After Bitcoin hit support, it did not consolidate sideways for long but chose to increase volume and rally early, directly ending the bear market’s one-way downward channel. Moving averages avoid crossing: With the current rapid price surge, the downward momentum of the originally declining SMA 50 has been quickly absorbed, and it is expected to complete a rounded bottom turn above the rising SMA 200, with a very low probability of intersection. This clearly indicates that this bear market phase has ended ahead of schedule, and the market is currently in a bear-to-bull transition phase, with bullish forces establishing structural dominance earlier than in the previous cycle.

BTC/ETH/XAU/SDNK Analysis for 2026.9.2 BTC/ETH continue to retest lower support levels. BTC ultimately broke through 77000 with a wick down to 76368. Yesterday’s first target at 76700 was hit, and the early session’s first take-profit at 700 points was also realized; currently, the trend continues as a small bearish move. Multiple attempts last night to push above 78425 failed, and in the early morning, it dropped to a new low accordingly. BTC support/resistance levels: 87550/85165/75475/78425/71500 Intraday volume contraction consolidates until evening when it attempts to test higher. Then at night, watch for either a volume-driven rally or continued suppression leading to new lows. Overall, the market is more bearish today, but rebounds can still be shorted with stop-losses. ETH support/resistance levels: 2750/2400/2225/2100 In the early morning, a wick broke below 2400 down to 2383. Currently consolidating around 2410, following BTC’s suppression at 78425. ETH follows BTC breaking 2400 downward to test levels sequentially. XAU had a small long position at 4363 last night, which did not hit the first take-profit. This position must strictly follow stop-loss rules. If stop-loss is not triggered, watch for a volume-driven rally at night to recover the cost price. If not, look for opportunities to break even or take a small stop-loss exit without affecting the overall strategy. SNDK surged to 1609 last night, then quickly fell to a low of 1525 in the early morning, now consolidating around 1540, fulfilling last night’s expectation of a shakeout hitting 1600. Trading advice does not constitute any investment basis: Today’s focus is no longer on US stocks; with upcoming minor and major non-farm payrolls and recent frequent hawkish comments from North America, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision is due early morning on the 17th of this month. The market is repeatedly manipulated to exhaust liquidity and chips, accumulating cheap chips for the future! Don’t miss spot opportunities during sharp drops. In this torturous market, trading contracts with small positions to hone trading skills and mindset is a necessary choice! #USStocks #Gold #web3 #TradingOpportunities

BTC is currently undergoing a relatively concentrated macro stress test. Oil prices are approaching $100, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar is strengthening, and the probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed above 60%. Almost all factors unfavorable to risk assets have converged. But BTC has only pulled back from above $80,000 to around $77,000 so far, without any uncontrolled decline. Therefore, the $75,000–$78,000 range is very critical. If BTC can still hold this area despite a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, it indicates that the funds that entered in August have not withdrawn easily, and market support still exists. However, if it breaks below and fails to recover for a long time, we should be cautious that this is not just a short-term macro disturbance, but a concentrated realization of profits accumulated from the August rally. There is no need to rush to guess the top now; first, let's see how long BTC can withstand in such a macro environment. The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR

BTC volume breakout with a closing wick! Closed half of the short position👇 1/ 📉 Normally, this should be a sharp drop BTC 1-hour chart shows increased bearish volume and directly dropped to a lower low. According to standard trend-following logic: a volume breakout means a deeper drop is expected. 2/ 🚨 But... the problem lies in this "but"! At the moment of closing, this bearish candle formed a long lower wick (closing wick). Signal interpretation: This means there was extremely strong buy support at the bottom during this hour. My response: If it were a solid big bearish candle, I would have held my short position tightly; but since this closing wick signal appeared, I decisively closed half of my short position at the current level! 3/ ⚠️ Seemingly weak rebounds often hide danger Although the current rebound on the hourly chart hasn't shown volume expansion and looks weak, we must not be careless: Main force's plan: This kind of lower wick support can easily be followed by a sudden explosive bullish candle during consolidation, directly triggering a short squeeze and sweeping stop losses around 80K. 4/ 🎯 Different strategies for ultra-short-term plans: 🔹 Aggressive ultra-short (long script): Entry: Playing the ultra-short rebound at the current level Stop loss: 76.3K Take profit target: 79K 🔹 Short positions above 79K (my personal holdings): Since I still hold half of my short base position, I won’t join this ultra-short rebound trade. Remaining short stop loss: 79.5K, leaving it to the market to see if it gets stopped out. The biggest taboo in trading is obsession; when you see signals, you must defend. Do you think this wick is a real bottom or a fake bull trap? ☕️ ⚠️ The above levels are only personal review notes and do not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.

[August Monthly Summary] August has ended. Bitcoin: $78,581 (+24.95%) Ethereum: $2,468 (+32.48%) Bitcoin rose about 25%, Ethereum rose about 33%, closing out August. Bitcoin went from 7.3% ➡️ 25%, Ethereum went from 18.5% ➡️ 32.5% Compared to July's gains, both Bitcoin and Ethereum saw much larger increases. I believe July was the month the downtrend ended, and August was the month the bull market began. September will bring clarity, and the midterm elections are also approaching. Personally, I think Bitcoin's gains in September may exceed 30%, and Ethereum's may exceed 40%. Therefore, the target prices for the end of September are as follows. - BTC: 100K (about +30%) - ETH: 3.5K (about +40%) If August was the month the bull market started, then September will be the month the bull market truly ignites, and I am very much looking forward to it.

BTC has fallen from above $80,000 to around $78,000, with the active buy-sell ratio in the perpetual contract market dropping to 0.956, and the 7-day average also falling below 1. This indicator measures the ratio of active buy volume to active sell volume in perpetual contracts. A value below 1 indicates that recently, contract traders have been selling more aggressively at market price, showing a bearish bias in the short-term derivatives market. However, this metric alone cannot determine whether these sell orders come from new short positions or from long positions actively closing. The former is usually accompanied by an increase in open interest, while the latter is more likely accompanied by a decrease in open interest; these two scenarios have different implications for the subsequent market trend. Therefore, what can be confirmed now is: During BTC's pullback, sellers in perpetual contracts have been more active; but to judge whether shorts will continue to add positions, one must also consider open interest and funding rates. If active selling dominates and open interest continues to rise, short pressure is more concerning; if open interest decreases, it is more likely a long deleveraging.

Bitcoin experienced a slight decline. After breaking through the red moving average, it showed a good trend but then slightly pulled back. This is the 4-hour chart. Although it fell below the moving average, there isn't much concern at the moment. If there is no special movement during the US daytime today, it is highly likely to maintain the current state until September 9, which seems to be a reasonable judgment. Of course, there are exceptions. If Trump tries to make some moves again, his declining approval rating could lead to simultaneous declines in the crypto market and US stocks. However, I don't think that would be a significant drop. Currently, the US Treasury is intervening in various economic sectors such as oil prices, the yen, and US bonds. It is clear they are trying to maintain the market until early November. Hopefully, mid-September will come quickly 😆 bitcoin:native #bitcoin

9.1 BTC descending channel, 79000 locks every rebound｜Gold 4450 two VWAPs resonance can't break through 【BTC】 In a descending channel, the rebound highs are all locked by the red VWAP at 79000. Buy long in two batches between 75000 and 76000, take profit when it rebounds to the upper edge of the channel. 【ETH】 Bull flag in the blue channel, both rebounds today were suppressed by the upper edge. Buy long in three batches at VWAPs 2427, 2371, and 2303, with ratios 1:1:2. Volatility is high, don't over-leverage, stop loss if it breaks below 2303. 【Gold】 Two VWAPs resonate at 4450, the rebound can't break through, yesterday's live broadcast shorted in batches here. Shorted as bearish in yesterday's live broadcast, already took profit on half the position, pushed the rest to breakeven. Below, take profit on short orders at 4290 and 4253, or reverse to long to try for a rebound.

【No Reason to Short BTC Currently】 Although BTC's highs are gradually lowering, the lows have never been broken, and the 77,600 support level has consistently held. From my perspective, there is no reason to short. Even if I get shaken out in the afternoon, I still remain bullish because no shorting structure has been found yet. If anyone still asks what constitutes a shorting structure, I will summarize common reversal patterns once again: 【Head and Shoulders Top】The right shoulder is lower than the head; confirmed after breaking the neckline. 【Double Top / M Top】The second rally fails to surpass the previous high; confirmed after breaking the middle low. 【Triple Top】Multiple failed attempts to break the same resistance level. 【Rounded Top】The uptrend gradually slows down and then turns downward. 【Sharp Top / V-Shaped Reversal】A rapid rally followed by a quick drop, usually accompanied by high volume. 【False Breakout of Previous High】Breaks above the previous high but immediately retracts, creating a bull trap. 【Rising Wedge】Price continues to make new highs, but the slope and momentum weaken; breaks below the lower boundary to turn bearish. Currently, the candlesticks are narrowing. Since there is no shorting structure, I will continue looking for opportunities to go long. My first plan is: after breaking 76,800, wait for a price rebound before going long. If there is no rebound, I will not enter. The second plan is around 75,500, also choosing right-side trading, waiting for rebound confirmation before going long. At this stage, I prefer to stay flat rather than short. The current upward wave should be ending soon, with the endpoint around 83K. The subsequent second wave correction is when I will fully buy spot positions. Be patient; BTC will not directly rise to 120,000. There are midterm elections in November; from September to November, a second wave correction plus consolidation is highly probable. The above content is only my personal market analysis and trading ideas and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation.