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Cato_KT
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海峡双航道、乌克兰贸然袭击伊朗资源船只,今天的信息密度还是可以的
这也与我上周的分析基本吻合,美伊局势发展至今,要么All in 打一个昏天暗地,俄乌与美伊战争混战,S3概率提升
要么偃旗息鼓,双方各退一步,回归技术性谈判,进入长期的外交斡旋阶段
只要不是疯子,都不会选择all in,特朗普虽然癫了点,但是也不是战争疯子,这是可以预见的!
能源价格快速回落是预料之中,不过细节处可以发现,国际原油与美油之间的价差在快速缩减
这意味着美国本身的能源价格压力实际上更大!#美军暂停对伊空袭,国际油价开盘大幅下跌
Cato_KT
Following yesterday's "good news from the delivery room," another optimistic signal emerged, with Iran and Oman conducting fruitful negotiations
In my opinion, Oman's previously proposed plan for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz should be recommended. The key is whether Iran will continue to charge ships passing through the strait; as long as there is no charge, the chances of this plan passing are very high
Going forward, Iran can assert sovereignty over part of the Strait of Hormuz without restricting ship access. Ships from countries with conflicts with Iran can choose to detour through the Strait of Oman, as long as there is no charge, which the U.S. can accept
This news signals further confirmation following Qatar's resumption of air traffic on the 26th yesterday. Once both sides begin active communication, it means the US-Iran situation will return to the technical negotiation stage, with the negotiation window gradually opening
The further decline in national crude oil prices has helped ease the weekend's geopolitical concerns. Next, attention should be paid to the stance of the U.S. and Trump, as well as clearer and more optimistic signals from the Gulf countries
Once the U.S. and Iran resolve the strait issue, aside from falling energy prices, the situation before the U.S. midterm elections should ease relatively well. Both sides will focus on technical negotiations, and before the November midterm election results, the U.S. and Iran will enter an optimistic window
Right now, my main concern is whether Iran can really give up its toll rights over the strait, because toll rights = absolute management rights = a secure moat. #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
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