$BTC $ETH $SOL Conclusion first We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30% Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back Let's all get rich together

$BTC Is tonight's CPI likely to be positive? The highlight tonight is the release of the US July CPI data. On Polymarket, an experienced trader betting on inflation direction predicts that July CPI will be 3.4%, with the market currently assigning about a 39% probability to this outcome. This trader has a historical success rate of nearly 58% on inflation-related trades, making their track record somewhat reliable. Wall Street's view has also emerged: the main driver lowering inflation this time is likely not oil prices or food, but the rent and housing sector. If housing inflation continues to slow down, combined with weak energy prices, CPI is expected to drop further from June's 3.5%. The 3.4% figure is quite delicate: it indicates that inflation is indeed cooling, but it won't fall too sharply.

$ETH • Position range: 1845–1880 (current long position cost area, hold firmly) • Stop loss reference: effective break below 1835–1840 (below consolidation/wedge low point, confirm continuation failure before exiting) • First target: above 2000 (at least touch the round number resistance, corresponding to the first resistance after breakout acceleration) • Second target: 2020–2050 (if volume breakout above 2000 continues to extend) • Key observation points: • Breakout confirmation: daily close stabilizes at 1890–1900 (near the upper triangle boundary) • Pullback support: 1860–1870 (area to add positions after breakout pullback) Overall, still follow your judgment: higher probability of upward breakout after consolidation completion, maintain long positions, and wait for acceleration.

$BTC Guess whether tonight's CPI will be a surprise or a shock Tonight at 20:30, US CPI: Bitcoin might break out of its sideways comfort zone! Bitcoin has entered a very typical wait-for-news phase: The price has been stuck in a range for a long time, liquidity is weak, implied volatility in the derivatives market continues to decline, and both bulls and bears are reluctant to place heavy bets early. So the key point of tonight's CPI may not be whether it rises or falls, but whether it could increase Bitcoin's volatility. If inflation is lower than expected, expectations for rate cuts will rise, US Treasury yields and the dollar will come under pressure, making it easier for BTC to break upwards. If inflation is higher than expected, the market will reprice for high interest rates, and BTC may break downwards. The longer the sideways movement lasts, once the price truly leaves the current range, the subsequent trend may actually accelerate. If CPI still does not provide a clear direction, the market may continue to grind until September, when Fed policy expectations and the progress of the CLARITY Act will become new catalysts. There is also an unfriendly historical pattern here: September has long been one of the worst-performing months for Bitcoin, with an average historical return of about -4%.

$BTC Bad news: BTC fell below the previous night's low last night, dropping to around 63200 at its lowest. Good news: The 4-hour RSI6 shows a bullish divergence at the bottom. However: RSI14 shows no divergence, indicating that based on RSI alone, there is only a very short-term rebound demand. But then again: Due to the rise in oil prices in July, the market's expectations for tonight's CPI might not be optimistic. Currently, the expected data shows a year-over-year decline but a month-over-month increase. However, the average oil price in July is not much higher than in June, and with consumption possibly weakening and wages not accelerating, tonight's CPI might meet expectations. In fact, the Labor Department might even report lower than expected figures to support Trump's midterm elections and U.S. debt demand, which is also possible.

$BTC From the latest Profit/Loss supply structure view: (1) BTC has already entered the bottom structure observation area commonly seen in the late stage of historical bear markets. (2) Around June 30, 2026, at 57.8K, a phased bottom (secondary bear bottom) may have formed, and it might even become the bear bottom for this cycle. (3) But the appearance of a bottom area ≠ the bear market has ended. The market still needs time to complete chip redistribution and trend confirmation. It should be noted that some classic on-chain extreme bottom indicators have not yet fully triggered, such as LTH, CVDD, MVRV, NUPL, etc.

$SPCX It's time for the daily routine analysis of $SPCX again. As the saying goes, if good news doesn't lead to a price increase, it's time to be cautious. Since last weekend's liquidity vacuum spike to 141, the stock hasn't made a new high during this week's opening hours. Especially starting yesterday, the hype around SpaceX AI launching the Grok Bot to compete with Anthropic and OpenAI is an even clearer signal. Because this Bot is actually a variant fulfilling the Grok 4.6 schedule, meaning it's a secondary positive news; the benefits of Grok 4.6 have long been realized. 140 is the lower boundary of a major resistance zone. At this level, either previous profit-taking bulls exit, or early-stage shorts begin to enter. Regardless of long or short, even if the direction is wrong, it's very easy to recover at this level, with a good margin for error, cost-effectiveness, and win rate. The trigger for direction choice might be tonight's CPI data. Additionally, on August 20th, the next batch of 7% of tokens will unlock. Although similar to the August 6th unlock—unlocking doesn't necessarily mean a price drop—this recent rally is very likely setting up a higher base for a drop after the next unlock. The sustainability of this rally shouldn't be blindly optimistic.

$BTC $SOL $ETH Will tonight's CPI lead to a rate cut? Tonight's U.S. CPI may be the most important set of data for risk assets in the coming weeks. Let's start with CPI and PPI Many market judgments are confused because these inflation indicators are mixed together. What exactly is the difference between CPI and PPI? CPI, short for Consumer Price Index, measures what changes in the actual prices ordinary consumers pay when purchasing goods and services. Rent, food, gasoline, medical care, car insurance, airfare, and clothing are all within the CPI statistics. Simply put, CPI observes how much households bear once inflation moves to the consumption side. PPI, short for Producer Price Index, observes how the prices domestic producers in the U.S. receive when selling goods and services change. It stands from the perspective of both the enterprise and the seller, closer to production, wholesale, and supply chain stages. That's why people often say PPI is upstream inflation, CPI is downstream inflation Not fully answered After production costs rise, companies can choose to raise prices or squeeze profits; Import prices, taxes, transportation costs, inventories, and demand strength will also change the speed at which PPI is transmitted to CPI. A rise in PPI does not necessarily mean that next month's CPI will increase proportionally. Conversely, if end-user demand is weak, even if production costs rise, companies may not be able to pass all costs on to consumers. It should also be added that a frequently overlooked fact is that the Federal Reserve's official 2% inflation target corresponds to the PCE price index, not the CPI. The reason the market still places great emphasis on CPI is that it was released earlier, has a more direct market impact, and the housing and service prices it contains help investors assess whether inflation is sticky. The subsequent PPI will continue to help the market revise its judgments on enterprise costs and PCE. Therefore, tonight's CPI is the first shot in the market's repricing path to interest rates. A door has opened for weak non-farm farmers In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000. More importantly, the combined increase in employment in May and June was revised down by 103,000, indicating that the employment slowdown is not a single month noise. Over the past 12 months, U.S. nonfarm payrolls have increased by an average of only 34,000 people per month; in July, average hourly earnings grew year-on-year to 3.2%, indicating that wage inflationary pressures are easing. On the other hand, the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, without a recession-like jump. The labor force participation rate was 61.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from January. In other words, the job market is indeed weakening, but it is currently closer to a hiring freeze and reduced labor demand by companies, which does not mean large-scale layoffs or economic recession. This set of data shifts the risk balance faced by the Federal Reserve. Previously, the Fed was mainly worried about inflation not being brought down. Now, it must also consider whether continuing to maintain high interest rates will further hurt employment. But this does not mean that rate cuts have become the benchmark scenario. At the July meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, while the statement still emphasized that inflation is above the 2% target. Among the 12 voting commissioners, 3 even advocated for a 25 basis point hike. As of the 7th of this month, market pricing reported by Reuters still shows a probability of a rate hike in September at about 44%. This timing is crucial; weak nonfarms weaken the logic for rate hikes, but have not yet made rate cuts the main theme in the market. Nonfarm payrolls have made the Fed start worrying about employment, and tonight's CPI will determine whether the Fed can temporarily lower its concerns about inflation. Only when both conditions are met simultaneously will interest rate cuts truly enter the discussion. Tonight's market expectations Currently, the market's general expectation for July CPI is: Overall CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to a 0.4% decrease previously. Overall CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, compared to the previous 3.5% Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared to the previous value of 0 Core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, compared to the previous 2.6% The Cleveland Fed's updated immediate forecast on the 11th is also very close, with overall CPI up about 0.09% month-on-month and core CPI up about 0.21% month-on-month. It is worth noting that the 0.4% drop in June CPI was largely due to a 5.7% month-on-month drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices falling 9.7%. Although core CPI did not rise month-on-month, there were still one-off internal factors: auto insurance fell by 2.0%, and hotel accommodation prices fell by 2.3%. Relatively more sustained housing prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, the smallest increase since January 2021. In other words, the June data includes both genuine cooling inflation and short-term declines in energy and some service prices. Tonight, the market needs to confirm whether underlying inflation remains moderate after the rebound. What is the real focus on this? Year-over-year data is good for describing what happened over the past year, but for tonight's trading, the month-over-month is even more important. Because year-on-year growth is affected by the base of the same period last year. Even if prices accelerate again this month, as long as the same period last year rises faster, year-on-year figures may still decline. Core CPI was 0.2% month-on-month, still above 2% after rough annualization; The annualized rate of 0.3% is close to 4%. After several consecutive months of 0.3%, the Fed finds it hard to believe inflation has stabilized back near its target. So tonight, we will look at it in three categories The first layer is the core CPI month-on-month This is the fastest data the market reads, and also the most sensitive part of the two-year U.S. Treasury yield The second floor is housing Rent and owner-equivalent rent carry a high weight in the CPI, and the adjustment process is slow. If the month-on-month growth rate for housing continues to stay between 0.1% and 0.2%, it indicates that past rent reductions are gradually entering official data. Conversely, if housing accelerates again, the decline in core inflation may not be as solid as it appears on the surface. The third layer is core non-residential services Healthcare, insurance, transportation, entertainment, and personal services tend to be more closely linked to wages and domestic demand. Energy prices can rise and fall quickly, but once service prices become inertia, they are usually harder to bring down. If headline CPI is high, mainly due to a rebound in energy but core services remain moderate, the market may not remain panicked. The real danger is: rising energy prices, housing rebound, and service prices accelerating again. Then it's no longer noise caused by a single item, but inflation spreading. In summary The key point about tonight's CPI is whether the direction of policy risk has changed.

$GOOGL $SPCX $GOOG is quite impressive, to be honest! Recently, its disclosed external investment holdings show that it holds about 95% in $SPCX, a single company! Invested 900 million, over 15 years, now worth 90 billion USD, a return of over 100 times…… Let me share some details with you…… According to Alphabet's 13F as of June 30, 2026, it disclosed a total of 29 public securities holdings with a total market value of about 99.08 billion USD; among them, SpaceX has 551,189,500 shares, valued at about 94.18 billion USD at the end of the quarter, accounting for about 95.05% of the entire 13F portfolio. But here is a very crucial detail: this is not Google suddenly spending over 90 billion USD recently to buy SpaceX. On the contrary, this is actually a super long-term investment held for more than 10 years. In January 2015, Google participated in SpaceX's financing. Alphabet later clearly disclosed in its 10-K that Google invested 900 million USD in SpaceX at that time; Media reports then stated that Google obtained about 7.5% of the shares, corresponding to a SpaceX valuation of about 12 billion USD. Google and Fidelity together invested 1 billion USD in that round, acquiring nearly 10% of SpaceX. In other words: 2015: Google invested about 900 million USD. Q2 2026: SpaceX holdings in 13F valued at about 94.18 billion USD. Of course, this cannot be simply and crudely understood as "Google made 104 times profit," because there are dilution, equity changes, stock splits, and other factors in between; But it can still be considered one of Google's most beautiful strategic investments in history. And there is another easily misunderstood point in this 13F that I haven't seen anyone talk about. That is, after SpaceX went public in June this year, the portion of shares Google has held long-term entered the 13F as public securities for the first time. So what this 13F really tells us is not that Google just bought SpaceX, but that after the IPO, we finally clearly see how much SpaceX Google actually holds. Moreover, the 94.18 billion USD is the market value as of June 30, corresponding to the 551,189,500 shares disclosed in 13F, which roughly translates to a quarter-end market price of 170.86 USD per share, not Google's actual cost price. Google's very earliest cost was still that 900 million USD from more than ten years ago. Even more interestingly, look at the remaining 5% of Alphabet's public investment portfolio: $PL Planet Labs about 1.17 billion USD; $ASTS AST SpaceMobile about 795 million USD; $ARM about 695 million USD; There are also a batch of AI, biotech, and software companies. So Google's past investments actually have a pretty obvious characteristic: I find it very interesting, so let me say a bit more…… It doesn't only buy companies exactly the same as its main business, but is willing to bet very early on foundational infrastructure that might become important in the next decade. AI, autonomous driving, life sciences, satellites, communication networks are all like this. And the SpaceX investment is especially typical. SpaceX in 2015 was far from the SpaceX of today; at that time, Starlink hadn't even officially commercialized, yet Google had already put up 900 million USD to bet on it. More than a decade later, SpaceX has gradually connected rockets, Starlink, AI, satellite communications, and even future orbital data centers into a complete set of infrastructure. So after seeing this 13F myself, I am even more confident in my previous long-term judgment on $SPCX. Short-term stock price will of course be affected by valuation, financial reports, CAPEX, and lock-up releases; I was bearish when I should be bearish before. 😂😂😂 But in the long run: I still have great confidence in SpaceX. Sometimes the real big opportunity is not found by holding 100 companies. But by truly understanding one company and being willing to accompany it for ten years. Actually, to say a bit more, a good company investing in another good company, stepping on each other's feet, is not unusual. When I talked about Tencent last time, I mentioned Tencent has invested in many pretty good companies domestically, which is also a way to make profits. Later I will dig deeper into things we can talk about, see you next time……

$SPCX Temasek of Singapore is making a big move to buy SpaceX $SPCX In the latest disclosed holdings, Temasek holds about 9.83 million shares of SpaceX, valued at nearly $1.68 billion. SpaceX has directly become its fifth largest U.S. stock position, accounting for about 4.5% of the disclosed portfolio. The top four are BlackRock, Google, Visa, and Nvidia respectively. The SpaceX position is now almost as large as Nvidia's, even surpassing Mastercard. Essentially, SpaceX is still a super infrastructure company combining Space + Communications: rockets, Starship, Starlink, satellite communications are currently the core businesses. AI is more of a potential additional layer for the future, But it’s very interesting to look at it together with Temasek’s other holdings: Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, plus SpaceX. What it’s really betting on is not just “AI stocks,” but the most core types of infrastructure for the next decade: computing power, chips, cloud, communications, and space. A sovereign wealth fund making SpaceX its fifth largest position is already a very strong signal in itself.

$BTC Trivia: BTC wave 2 has already lasted 310 days. If nothing unexpected happens It will bottom out and start a big rebound before November 30.