$BTC's largest sellers, almost sold out? Analyst Murphy posted on X: After $BTC dropped to around $63,000, nearly all chips bought in 2025 are at a loss. On-chain data shows that about 4.77 million of these chips remain, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year. Excluding internal wallet transfers, most of the chips that left indicate holders cutting losses or completing turnover. Before February this year, this batch of trapped positions declined rapidly; after February, the curve clearly slowed down. The price continues to fall, but the number of chips has not decreased significantly in sync, indicating that the most panicked have already exited, leaving long-term holders. Additionally, BTC bought from 2022 to 2024 that still has unrealized gains shows a selling curve that is nearly flat. The longer the holding period, the less sensitive to short-term fluctuations. Referring to the previous two bear markets, by the end of 2022, high-position chips from 2021 decreased by about 51%; by the end of 2018, high-position chips from 2017 decreased by about 62%. Currently, this round is at 41.5%. If history is a reference, selling pressure may not be fully released yet, but the most panicked selling phase has likely passed. There is another obvious difference this round: the 2025 holdings include institutional funds such as ETFs and Strategies. These types of chips are usually held longer, so the high-position chips in this round may not need to decrease by 60% as in the past for the market to bottom out. #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？

$BTC is still fluctuating around $63,000, and Vida, founder of Equation News, has chosen to reduce his position by one-third. He does not believe that Bitcoin will not have a next bull market, but judges that this waiting period could be very long. His plan is to buy back between $45,000 and $55,000 within the next 1 to 3 years. The core reason is that market attention has been taken away by AI. Compared to the continuous emergence of new AI models, new products, and huge financing, Bitcoin currently has few new stories to tell. The most significant remaining narrative is still hedging against fiat depreciation, U.S. dollar credit, and U.S. debt risks. But these narratives may not fully erupt in the short term. Before a real currency crisis arrives, global assets may first undergo a re-pricing, and Bitcoin is unlikely to remain unaffected. However, fully betting the next bull market on problems with the U.S. dollar or U.S. debt is somewhat absolute. ETF funds, global liquidity shifts, regulatory improvements, and institutional allocations could also potentially drive demand back up. The $45,000 to $55,000 range is just Vida's personal expectation, not a market certainty. It feels like this truly reflects that the crypto market is losing the past certainty of "waiting for the narrative to return." As AI becomes the new darling of capital, $BTC not only has to fight against macro pressures but also compete for limited funds and attention. #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？

6 consecutive days of decline on the daily chart! Is $BTC about to change trend? $BTC has weakened for six consecutive days, currently falling below $63,000. The daily trendline and the 200-week moving average around $64,000 have also been broken one after another. What’s unusual is that while the US CPI and PPI both cooled down and the US stock market continued to rise, $BTC failed to keep up. This indicates that the current pressure on the coin price is not just interest rates, but a lack of funds within the crypto market itself. Latest data shows a net outflow of about $131 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in a single day, with macro positive factors directly offset by selling pressure. The technical outlook is also not optimistic. BTC’s price volatility over the past 30 days is only 5.6%, at a historically low level. Low volatility does not mean safety; it only means that bulls and bears are compressed into an increasingly narrow range. Once this balance is broken, the market could quickly expand. On the downside, $62,500 must be defended first. If the area around $62,200 is lost, a short-term dip to $61,300 is possible, followed by the key $60,000 psychological level. Resistance on the upside is concentrated between $64,500 and $65,000. Only by reclaiming $65,400 can there be a chance to open a rebound space between $67,000 and $68,000. The options market is also stuck at a critical point. About $1.29 billion in BTC options are about to expire, with the biggest pain point at $64,000; put positions are concentrated between $60,000 and $62,000, while call positions mainly bet on $65,000 to $72,000. Some analysts have suggested a 20% deep correction risk, but judging a crash solely based on a trendline break is insufficient evidence. Low volatility may signal a major move is coming, but direction still needs to be judged in conjunction with related data! Right now, more attention should be paid to whether ETF funds will flow back and whether $62,500 can hold. Holding and reclaiming $65,000 could mean this breakdown is just a shakeout; if support fails and volume expands, the market will truly enter a new round of decline. The inability of positive news to stimulate a rise is itself a weak signal. The window for $BTC’s trend change has opened, and the market is unlikely to remain calm in the coming days! #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？

$BTC is consolidating, with AI and DeFi sectors leading the strength? Currently, $BTC is still fluctuating around 63,000-64,000, up 0.82% in 24 hours; $ETH is at $1,893, up 0.33%. However, the 24-hour crypto trading volume is only $45.45 billion. The overall market has not broken out, showing some divergence among sectors. The AI sector rose 3.33%, becoming the strongest performing track currently. DeFi rose 2.33%, Layer2 up 1.72%, and RWA also increased by 1.20%. Events like DeepSeek Harness open testing and Alibaba's Qwen3.8-2.4T launching supercomputing internet continue to boost AI infrastructure enthusiasm. In DeFi, Fidelity plans to add staking and quarterly dividends to the Ethereum ETF, Ether.fi launched tokenized stock trading and portfolio-collateralized lending, and Ethena established institutional loan cooperation with FalconX. But this is not a full recovery for altcoins. GameFi fell 0.41%, SocialFi dropped 0.24%, NFT and Meme sectors also closed lower, and $DOGE declined 0.44%. Funds seem to be rotating locally around AI, staking yields, and on-chain finance. Also, short-term sector leadership does not indicate a trend reversal. Note that although the AI sector rose 3.33% in 24 hours, it still fell 5.26% over the past month; Layer2 rebounded 1.72% on the day, but monthly returns remain negative at 9.45%. The current movement is closer to a low-level recovery rather than a main upward trend. Next, we will continue to watch if $BTC can break out with volume and whether $ETH strengthens. Only when the overall market opens up space, and sector trading volume and breadth of gains expand simultaneously, can funds further diffuse into altcoins. Be cautious chasing sudden rallies in small-cap AI or DeFi tokens, as they are prone to short-term rotation traps. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

Altcoins collectively stall, $OKB breaks through $100 against the trend, rising nearly 8% in 24 hours! $BTC remains around $63,000, $ETH holds firm at $1,900, and $SOL hovers around $76. Mainstream coins are temporarily stable, but sentiment in the altcoin market is clearly weakening. The NFT sector fell 5.19% in 24 hours, with $BEAT dropping another 13.31%. The Meme sector retraced 3.69%, with $PEPE and $TRUMP down 5.61% and 6.58%, respectively. The previously high-volatility sectors are starting to recede, indicating that capital is indeed actively narrowing its holdings. A few coins are still running independent trends. The most eye-catching is $OKB, which rose nearly 8% while the CeFi sector overall dropped 0.52%. $OKB has shown continuous strength recently, possibly because the market is betting on X Layer’s recent completion of both funding and application ends: - Circle integrated native USDC and cross-chain transmission protocol CCTP into X Layer - Pendle completed native deployment on X Layer and launched the USDG yield market - Stablecoin scale on X Layer is about $2 billion, DeFi TVL has surpassed $100 million, growing nearly 10 times in half a year If more lending, trading, and yield protocols join next, capital on X Layer will truly start to flow. The weak narrative continues to bleed out, with a few strong coins absorbing liquidity. Choosing the wrong direction will be more painful than missing out.

Russian Central Bank: Retail investors can trade $BTC $ETH $USDT Russia is opening a door to cryptocurrency, but the gap is narrow. According to an article by bits.media, the recent draft consultation published by the Russian Central Bank states that ordinary investors will only be able to trade three crypto assets for the time being: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT. Within a single broker, crypto exchange, or asset management institution, the annual purchase limit per person cannot exceed 300,000 rubles, and a risk test must be passed before trading. Some trading restrictions are seen here: the market capitalization must be large enough, the average daily trading volume must be high enough, and there must be at least five years of price history in overseas markets. However, professional investors face relatively relaxed restrictions; they can trade other cryptocurrencies without purchase limits but must complete compliance requirements. This plan does not represent a full liberalization of crypto trading in Russia but aims to gradually bring funds that were previously in the gray area into licensed institutions and regulated accounts. The related system is expected to be implemented from September 1, and the Moscow Exchange has also begun preparing its own crypto asset custody institution. More notably, the Russian Central Bank ultimately included USDT, a US dollar stablecoin issued by an American company, alongside BTC and ETH in the initial list, indicating that regulators prioritize liquidity scale when faced with demand. This time, Russia has not fully accepted the crypto community because, for most altcoins, the door to the compliant market remains firmly closed!

Crypto winter continues: BitGo's revenue soars 80%, yet it struggles with "the busier, the harder to make money." BitGo's latest Q2 financial report shows revenue reaching $4.33 billion, a nearly 80% year-over-year increase, but the company ultimately posted a net loss of $19 million. In the same period last year, BitGo earned $38.3 million. Meanwhile, CFO Edward Reginelli will resign on September 15. Of the current $4.33 billion revenue, about $4.2 billion comes from digital asset trading, with direct costs as high as $4.19 billion, leaving a real profit margin of only about $7.1 million. Trading volume is growing, but the profitability per transaction is declining. The staking business shows a similar trend, with the platform's commission rate dropping from 16.1% in Q1 to 6%. BitGo previously cut about 15% of its staff in June and plans to save $15 million in cash expenses annually. The company emphasizes that the most important task now is not to keep increasing revenue figures but to maximize how much revenue can be converted into profit. It is worth noting that BitGo is not currently in a financial crisis. The company holds $159 million in cash, 2,523 bitcoins on its own books, and has no corporate-level debt. Stablecoin services are also one of the few bright spots, with related income up 148% year-over-year. BitGo's financial report reflects changes in the crypto industry: previously, growth in trading volume, user numbers, and custody assets meant the market was willing to pay; now, the market cares most about business profitability.

Decentralized? $SOL was almost "unplugged" by a data center Coindesk reported that the Solana network nearly went down again, not due to a code bug, but because of the network infrastructure of validator nodes. A routing failure at a large data center provider caused nearly 29% of Solana's staked assets to go offline briefly. Solana's network mechanism freezes the entire chain if the offline ratio exceeds one-third, as transactions cannot reach final confirmation. This time, the staked amount was only about 20 million SOL short of causing a network halt. The issue was caused by an abnormal network route at Teraswitch's Miami data center, which then affected locations including London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Singapore, and Tokyo, impacting about 90 validator nodes. The service provider fixed the problem in about 10 minutes, but many validator nodes' backup routes did not automatically take over, with the longest offline time around 33 minutes. This incident exposed a problem: a large amount of staking power depends on the same network operator AS2032, with concentration exceeding Solana's recommended safety range. Validator nodes appear globally distributed, but the underlying network lifeline may be shared. Therefore, having many nodes does not equal true decentralization. If data centers, cloud providers, and networks are highly centralized, even on-chain decentralization can be dragged down by a single point of failure. #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化

ETF continues to see inflows, but $BTC can't rise: who exactly is selling? $BTC once fell back to $63,700, remaining stuck between $62,000 and $66,000 over the past five weeks. Notably, volatility has dropped to historically low levels, and global cryptocurrency trading volume has fallen to a three-year low. Both bulls and bears are reluctant to bet early; the market is waiting for a signal that can break the balance. Currently, the biggest support comes from the US Bitcoin spot ETF. Recent inflows have hit a new high since April, with BlackRock IBIT still the main force, indicating institutions have not significantly withdrawn. However, ETF buying has not directly pushed up the coin price. Some traders believe that miners and large holders like Strategy are selling through over-the-counter markets, offsetting some of the new demand. This also explains why funds are flowing in, yet BTC has not broken through $66,000. We also need to pay attention to the US CPI, Federal Reserve policies, and the progress of the CLARITY Act. With inflation cooling and ETFs continuing to flow in, BTC volume could firmly hold above $66,000, potentially releasing the long-compressed volatility quickly; conversely, the area around $62,000 will face a test. It feels like BTC currently does not lack buyers, but the buyers and sellers have temporarily reached a delicate balance. Low volatility won't last forever; the longer the sideways movement, the greater the magnitude of the breakout tends to be. Watch the $66,000 attack line and the $62,000 defense line. #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在