You have your broad sunny path, I have my narrow plank bridge. You just keep rising, little US stocks, watch how my crypto circle continues to fluctuate. The higher you stand, the harder you fall. I’ve been crouching all along; falling hurts less that way. This is the current state of the crypto world. The S&P has climbed above 7800, closing at a new high, and Wall Street has already started calling for 8000. On the other hand, Bitcoin fell below 63000, and Ethereum returned to 1870. Under the same macro backdrop, capital has made its choice. Today, the biggest gainers were the three storage giants—SanDisk surged 13% in one day, Micron rose 4%, and SK Hynix gained 7%. But it’s not just them; Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are all up. This new high in the S&P is actually quite healthy—not propped up by a single sector, but a broad rally. CPI and PPI both cooled down, the probability of a rate hike dropped to 30%, oil prices fell, and US Treasury yields declined. These three positive factors combined, capital is piling into the entire tech chain. Meanwhile, the crypto world remains stagnant. Inflation cooling is clearly positive, but capital simply hasn’t come. $BTC fell below 63000—what’s the key signal? Whales are offloading. On-chain data shows that large holders have been continuously reducing their positions over the past week, while BTC inflows to exchanges are increasing—a classic sign of selling ahead. The ETF side is even more direct: on August 13, there was a net outflow of $131 million, with Fidelity pulling out $55.12 million, Ark $58.82 million, and even BlackRock $5.74 million. Since mid-July, ETF inflows have plummeted by 80%. $ETH is also about to fail to hold 1870, weaker in the short term, but capital flow is already shifting. I will slowly buy below 1850, but won’t chase above 1900. The logic on both sides is different now—BTC is digesting selling pressure, ETH is waiting for a catalyst. Once the political cards are played and liquidity truly shifts, ETH’s resilience will emerge first. Regulatory negotiations have dragged on with no results, and ETF funds are flowing out; these issues can’t be solved by macro factors. Ultimately, US stocks are trading political narratives and industry trends, while crypto is still waiting for liquidity to truly turn. Both are going their own way. US stocks are charging toward 8000, crypto is holding at 60000. Looking back in six months, one of these markets will definitely be overly optimistic, and the other overly pessimistic. Which is which, I can’t say for sure now, but my intuition tells me—the optimism in US stocks might be overextended, and the pessimism in crypto might be overdone. Or maybe it’s just a matter of mindset being too good. #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温

Right now in the crypto world, good news for the US stock market is bad news for it, and bad news for the US stock market is a black swan event for it. The crypto world is terrifying—what kind of news can actually stimulate it? CPI and PPI have been released consecutively, and the signals of cooling inflation are clear enough. July CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, all right on target. PPI month-over-month is flat, year-over-year dropped from 5.5% to 4.7%. According to the classic script, the probability of a rate hike should decrease, and risk assets should rise. CME data confirms this—the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 40% to 32%. But the market has split. In the crypto world, Bitcoin $BTC is still hovering around 64,000, now almost like a stablecoin. It surged a bit before the news was released, but as soon as the news came out, it immediately fell flat. What about Ethereum? $ETH has been fluctuating between 1,870 and 1,890. It spiked briefly after the data but then faded. Over 60,000 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours, ETF funds haven’t flowed back, and 1,900 has become a short-term ceiling for ETH. On the US stock side, it’s a completely different story. SanDisk jumped 10% to 1,550, and SK Hynix rose over 7%. Same data, two worlds. This can’t be explained by economics. Inside the Federal Reserve, there’s a big fight—Harker calls for a rate hike, Kaplan says wait and see. On the surface, it’s a data disagreement, but behind it are two political forces arm-wrestling. Whether to hike in September depends only half on economic data. Crypto is stuck in an awkward position. Inflation has cooled, the probability of a rate hike has dropped, so it should rise, but funds aren’t moving. Because the market wants "rate cuts," not "no rate hikes." No rate hike just stops the bleeding; rate cuts are the transfusion. ETH has been stuck around 1,900 for almost two weeks; it gets slammed when it tries to go up—a typical wait-for-catalyst scenario. Once rate cut expectations shift from "whether to hike" to "when to cut," ETH’s elasticity will be much stronger than BTC’s, and a drop in staking yields will directly push up the ETH/BTC exchange rate. SanDisk $SNDK rose 10%, apparently due to AI, but behind it is the expectation of chip production capacity shifting due to the chip bill. The crypto world is still stuck in liquidity narratives, while US stocks are already trading politics. My strategy: don’t chase BTC above 64,000, buy on dips around 63,000; slowly accumulate ETH below 1,850, don’t chase above 1,900. Wait for the political cards to be played out, then liquidity will shift. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大