Just took a quick look at the market; the August plot twist is faster than my mom flipping out. A couple of days ago, Trump was still shouting on Twitter about "the largest strike against Iran since WWII," but on August 1st, he reversed and canceled it, opting to sit down and talk about Hormuz instead—Iran was still being stubborn, saying they would only negotiate with Oman and wouldn't let the US in the door. On the night of the 6th, two explosions were heard on Qeshm Island, and Iran plans to legislate a ban on US ships passing through. It sounds intimidating, but oil prices had already dropped over 5% on the 4th, with the risk premium clearly unwinding. What’s more critical is Washington— • Powell has long retired; the current chair is Kevin Walsh, who hinted in the early hours of August 7th that a rate hike is planned for September. • A group of hawks including Musalem, Cook, Schmidt, Kashkari are circling and calling for it; CME pricing shows a 55% probability of a September hike. • July marked the fifth consecutive hold (3.5%-3.75%), but 3 out of 12 votes dissented wanting a hike, and the Dow dropped 0.85% last night, breaking a 5-day winning streak. The war flames were extinguished by Trump himself, but this new Fed hawk is even tougher than Powell—squeezed from both sides. So I went short, sticking to the usual rules— • As long as the Strait agreement lands in the next few days, oil prices will have another risk-off retreat. • The Washington Jackson Hole meeting (later this month) will likely bring more tough talk, and the Nasdaq will kneel first in respect. • Short-term shorts, take a couple bites and run, leaving it for the brave who dare to hold over the weekend. After all, those two explosions on Qeshm Island haven’t been explained yet, and if the Iranian parliament really passes the "ban on US ships" law, who knows where the market will hang on Monday open… 🥲 Just rambling, writing this mess intraday on August 7, 2026, not financial advice, I’m a coward, always close overnight. $BTC