The sudden appreciation of the yen triggered a global market plunge A sudden plunge occurred after 1 PM today, with global markets experiencing a wave of declines, including A-shares, Asian stock markets in Japan and South Korea, as well as gold. The reason behind this was surprisingly the yen. At exactly 1 PM, the yen suddenly appreciated slightly, with the exchange rate against the US dollar rising from 159.5 to around 159.3. The cause was media reports revealing that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government made a 180-degree turn, changing its stance from opposing the Bank of Japan's rate hikes to supporting an imminent rate hike. It is very likely that at the upcoming monetary policy meetings in September or October, the Bank of Japan will implement its third rate hike in 12 years, potentially raising the rate from 1% to 1.25%. This would be the fastest consecutive rate hike by the Bank of Japan in decades. Since the beginning of this year, the yen has depreciated rapidly, falling from just above 150 to over 160. The Bank of Japan intervened twice this year, using about $66.7 billion in April with limited effect. In July, it intervened again, deploying around $58 billion to support the yen. Interestingly, the US government also joined forces; US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen not only sent a note to the market indicating plans to buy about $5-10 billion worth of yen in the future, but the Federal Reserve also conducted window guidance on exchange rates, sending a warning signal to the market to curb the rampant shorting of the yen. However, the market did not respond favorably to these consecutive moves. After the US-Japan joint intervention on July 30, the yen briefly rose to around 157, but within about a week, it returned to 159.5 and continued heading toward the 160 mark. Behind the yen shorting is a massive global carry trade fund totaling about $2 trillion. Why does the market feel so confident to continue shorting despite US-Japan intervention? The deeper reason is the recognition of Japan's huge short-term economic difficulties—Japan's debt is enormous, with debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 204%, the highest among all developed countries. Japan's economic structural transformation lags far behind its East Asian neighbors, and its economy has been sluggish. Meanwhile, with global oil prices soaring this year, imported inflation has caused great hardship for the Japanese people. Logically, the Bank of Japan should raise rates to combat inflation, but Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government fears that rate hikes will stall the economy and increase interest expenses, worsening the already strained fiscal situation. Therefore, they have firmly resisted rate hikes and only used foreign exchange interventions to support the market. This indirectly drags the US into a trap—when the Bank of Japan supports the yen, it must sell dollars to buy yen, and with limited foreign reserves, the Bank of Japan must sell US Treasuries to obtain dollars, creating huge selling pressure in the US Treasury market. The persistently high US Treasury yields are the top headache for the current Trump administration, which cannot tolerate Japan adding fuel to the fire at this time. Trump repeatedly accused Japan of undervaluing its currency and demanded a higher exchange rate. Treasury Secretary Yellen also visited Japan multiple times urging rate hikes. Under huge US political pressure and after two failed interventions with real money this year, today's news indicates that Sanae Takaichi has finally had to concede. The current global capital market situation is that the triangle of US dollar/US Treasuries, yen/Japanese bonds, and corporate bonds issued by large US AI companies cannot all be balanced simultaneously by global funds. The ultimate result is sacrificing the yen and Japanese bonds to preserve US Treasuries and the smooth issuance of AI company corporate bonds. Sanae Takaichi has effectively allowed Japan to raise rates, meaning Japan will bear the fiscal costs of higher interest, sacrificing fiscal credibility and causing Japanese bonds to be further abandoned by the market. Global capital leaders have already warned that Japanese government bonds are approaching a "Truss moment"—referring to the time when UK Prime Minister Truss's fiscal stimulus via tax cuts triggered investor concerns, massive bond sell-offs, and the resignation of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Today's government concession and the Bank of Japan's upcoming rate hikes mean Japanese bonds will ultimately bear the burden. The global bond market will become more volatile and liquidity competition more intense, which is not good news for global stock markets—whether high-risk US stocks or gold, liquidity is needed to sustain bull markets. The precarious bond market sounds a warning bell for global assets. After today's news, the yen rose slightly and then stabilized, indicating investors are gradually digesting the negative news of the Bank of Japan's rate hikes in September and October. Once market pricing is complete, this round of turmoil will temporarily subside. The key is whether the yen can stabilize below 160. If it cannot hold this critical level, the Bank of Japan will continue selling US Treasuries, and in the worst case, the Federal Reserve may intervene through FIMA US Treasury repurchases to support Japan, effectively signaling a new round of global monetary easing. The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks.

Continuing to follow the script Tonight, the US July CPI fully met expectations, withstanding the risk of oil price rebound due to the Middle East conflict in July, continuing its downward trend, removing the biggest tail risk for the market. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 46% to 40%. The market is gradually realizing that there will be no rate hike this year, but possibly a rate cut, which is the script I have been telling everyone: the Fed first signals hawkishness to mislead the market — the market becomes desperate — then data reverses — market perception changes — the Fed cuts rates. This process means the market first falls, then gradually rises. Once you catch the rhythm, holding positions steadily feels very comfortable. Tonight, gold failed to break through $4500. No need to worry; it’s normal to have differing resistance levels. After some more oscillation and sufficient chip exchange, the breakout will be stronger. From a fundamental perspective, US economic data is very likely to continue weakening. Meanwhile, Trump’s pressure on Cook and the US debt issuance issues (Bassett had to intervene) continue to weigh on US credit, which is bullish for gold. After gold breaks through, it will be silver’s turn. Since silver has lower financial attributes than gold and is a follower asset, appropriately positioning in it is also a viable strategy. Today, Penguin announced its financial report, with capital expenditures far exceeding expectations, especially the outstanding performance of WorkBuddy, indicating successful AI implementation. Although negative cash flow turnover is a short-term issue and the stock price fell tonight, in the long term, it supports the domestic mid-to-lower stream AI narrative, which is good for the entire domestic AI main theme. The central bank announced tonight that it will conduct three 600 billion yuan reverse repo operations in the coming week. This liquidity injection offsets market tightness and is good news for the A-share market, especially for liquidity-sensitive stocks like small and mid caps, which can be watched in the short term. Bitcoin enters an August news vacuum period; time is exchanged for space. New market moves will wait until the bill is reconsidered in September. Currently, a drop is actually an opportunity to accumulate low-priced chips, while a rise is just dead time. The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks.

Key CPI Data Will Decide the Fate of the Rebound At 8:30 tonight, the US July CPI will be released. This could be the most important inflation data of the year because it will directly determine whether the current rebound continues or shifts into a consolidation phase. Looking back to August last year, at the same critical point—the US economy began to weaken gradually, nonfarm payroll data was unexpectedly revised downward, and Trump relentlessly pressured the Federal Reserve. The market seriously questioned the Fed's credibility. The subsequent scenario was the Fed's emergency rate cuts in September, three consecutive cuts, leading to a major market rally. This year is almost the same script. US economic indicators unexpectedly turned negative, July's large nonfarm payrolls shifted from positive to negative, Trump started investigating criminal issues related to Fed Governor Cook, and the just-concluded July Fed meeting was widely seen by the market as a complete failure. Walsh's speech caused US Treasury yields to surge sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.7%. The US urgently needs to cut rates to suppress long-term interest rates; the script is strikingly similar. I predicted at the beginning of the year that the US should cut rates in September. If it weren't for the mid-March Middle East conflict causing oil prices to spike, rate cut expectations would have already started trading. Currently, the market is deeply divided on whether rates will rise or fall. Tonight's CPI data is very likely to be the key to reversing everyone's expectations. This CPI release mainly focuses on three variables: first, whether the July rebound in oil prices will transmit into the CPI data; second, whether the overall weakening of the US economy will cause a significant drop in commodity CPI; third, whether housing inflation, which carries the largest weight in inflation, will continue to decline as expected. The market consensus currently expects July CPI to rise 0.1% month-over-month, and core CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month. I believe the overall month-over-month figure may be lower than expected, with other items roughly stable. If the data is lower than expected, the market will continue to rebound; if higher, the market may continue to consolidate for a while. The outcome will naturally be clear once the data is released. The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.

Structural Opportunities in the A-Share Technology Sector If we talk about the upcoming phase's structural highlights in A-shares, the first layer is to focus closely on AI technology. Within AI technology, it's fine to focus on the leading companies, but to stay one step ahead of the market and outperform most retail investors, you need to ask what exactly this leader represents. The next layer down is to select domestic computing power leaders and domestic substitution leaders. Domestic computing power includes the upstream chip design and semiconductor equipment manufacturing, both of which are tightly controlled by foreign entities, highly valuable, and should be the core leaders to watch in the future. The most representative of course is Huawei; the entire industry chain led by Huawei is the core direction of the domestic computing power sector. Another line is the overseas computing power chain led by the U.S., such as optical modules, which have proven performance and are long-term leaders worth watching. But the problem is their volatility follows the U.S. stock market and is heavily influenced by overseas tech stocks. Apart from these two, everything else seems miscellaneous to me. For example, market speculation on glass substrates, MLCCs, etc., is global and not unique to China; also, these are lower-end in the industry chain, unlike optical modules which have technological content and overseas demand. Even robots and commercial aerospace—commercial aerospace is at too early a stage and not exactly the same, but many similar directions, even if leaders, I believe lack long-term value. Returning to this round of AI technology investment, it may now be necessary to layout mid- to downstream sectors. Overseas AI has entered a rotation from upstream to mid- and downstream; optical modules may be entering a relative bottleneck. If optical modules rotate down, does the new overseas rotation direction have a domestic counterpart or industry chain support? Currently, mid- to downstream can look for large model companies and cloud computing companies—mainly in Hong Kong stocks, with growth not as fast as in the U.S. But Chinese large model companies will follow the U.S. in the next short-term rotation or hype cycle. Following the overseas chain requires the ability to time trades, constantly grasp overseas tech trends, and pocket profits from domestic companies in phases, being good at taking profits. Domestic computing power, however, can be a long-term play. Both directions are viable; the key is to recognize your own trading style and match the corresponding strategy. This is the direction where ordinary A-share investors can truly seize opportunities and make money. The above is only a personal opinion, not investment advice; please be aware of risks.

To put it bluntly, the rules have always been set by the United States for others. If other countries' exchange rates have loopholes, they deserve to be harvested by American capital. Recently, the much-discussed Plaza Accord 2.0 between Japan and the US involves joint intervention in exchange rates. The real mastermind behind this is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen—one of the architects of the dollar system, former Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund, who orchestrated the attacks on the British pound and the Asian financial crisis. From Yellen's rise, we can clearly see what she is doing now. In the 1992 pound attack, Yellen observed problems in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The UK economy was weak but stubbornly maintained high interest rates; she believed the Bank of England could only choose between exchange rates and real estate. Soros agreed with her judgment, borrowed money and leveraged to short the pound. On Black Wednesday, the UK raised interest rates twice in one day to 15%, exhausted $26.9 billion in foreign reserves, yet still couldn't stop the attack, eventually exiting the ERM, with the pound plummeting 4% in a single day. Soros became famous overnight, profiting over a billion dollars. Yellen later accurately bet on the yen's depreciation and attacked the Thai baht and other currencies during the Asian financial crisis, profiting handsomely each time. The wheel of fortune turns. The Wall Street titan who once dominated the scene has now become the firefighter defending against capital attacks, in a more awkward position than the countries once targeted. US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the 30-year Treasury yield has exceeded 5%, the highest since 2007. Yellen not only has to keep borrowing new debt to pay off old debt but also suppress borrowing costs to convince the market that the dollar is credible. Neither of these conditions currently holds. US credit has been ruined by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell told the bond market at a meeting, "Welcome the market to raise rates on behalf of the Fed," enraging Wall Street tycoons who frantically sold off Treasuries. Within an hour after the meeting, the 10-year Treasury yield broke 4.7%. Powell caused the mess, and Yellen can only clean up afterward. That's why Yellen is urgently trying to help Japan put out the fire—because even insiders no longer trust US debt, overseas central banks are selling off, and a global de-dollarization wave is rolling in. The Bank of Japan is the most important big buyer and must be stabilized. The yen's depreciation forces the Bank of Japan to keep selling Treasuries to support the yen, robbing Peter to pay Paul. Yellen first verbally pressured, then personally flew to Japan to guide, but the Bank of Japan still refused to raise rates. Finally, Yellen compromised and intervened through the Fed's exchange rate window guidance, violating market rules to stabilize the situation. The most ironic thing is the double standard of financial rules. When shorting the pound, the Western rhetoric was "free market pricing correcting economic imbalances," completely ignoring the cost of local asset crashes, corporate bankruptcies, and wealth shrinkage after currency collapse. When US debt is under pressure, the narrative changes—malicious shorting becomes market sabotage, and defending US debt and the dollar is deemed in the global interest. The rules have always been set by the US for others. If other countries have loopholes, they deserve to be harvested; if the US itself has problems, the whole world must bail it out. Yellen has transformed from a dragon slayer into a dragon herself; what changed is her role, not the underlying logic. Back then, the attacks targeted loopholes left by other countries' policy mistakes; now, the dollar's debt hole is precisely the result of decades of US fiscal profligacy and excessive money printing. The harmful effects of the exchange rate mechanism once taught to the world have now all backfired on the US. This is probably the most vivid cycle. The above is only a personal opinion, not investment advice; please be aware of risks.

The Federal Reserve also struggles to save the market Big news: after 24 years, Japan and the U.S. have once again joined forces to intervene in the exchange rate, with an impact potentially comparable to the Plaza Accord back then. This year, the yen has plummeted as if it took a laxative, breaking through 150, and now surpassing the 160 mark, even dropping to 162 at one point in July. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly stepped in to support the market, but global funds shorting the yen are completely unmoved. The entire $2 trillion carry trade not only disrespects the intervention but continuously turns the Bank of Japan’s injected funds into closing profits. The one who can’t sit still is U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. This week, the Bank of Japan took the lead, spending $52.8 billion on foreign exchange intervention. What surprised the market even more was Yellen accidentally leaking a hotel note that read "Buy 10 billion yen"—clearly not a slip, but a deliberate signal to the market. Shortly after, the New York Federal Reserve intervened in the forex market, conducting a rate window check and asking major Wall Street forex quoting banks for quotes on "selling 50 billion euros to buy yen." The news quickly spread across the forex market; traders knew the Fed was ready to step in. The yen surged rapidly, short sellers scrambled to cover, dropping from 162 back to 157. This operation is quite poignant. Back then, Yellen represented Soros Fund to break the Bank of England, sitting at the table as a financial hunter suppressing the pound; now she sits on the other side of the table as U.S. Treasury Secretary, personally defending the forex front line—a poetic turn of fate. This action completely contradicts the U.S.'s long-standing principle of market-led exchange rates. Intervening with state power indicates a major underlying risk. There are two layers of risk. The first is that stabilizing the yen is actually about stabilizing U.S. Treasury bonds. The Bank of Japan has been continuously selling U.S. Treasuries to raise dollars to support the exchange rate, about $30 to $50 billion each time. If this scale continues, it will not only push U.S. Treasury yields up and prices down but also desensitize the market—market participants know your ammunition is limited and you have to pause after each shot, allowing shorts to keep eating your chips. Losing Japan as the largest overseas buyer of U.S. Treasuries, while AI companies are issuing hundreds of billions in private bonds annually, means the global capital pool is a small well being drained by two big hands. If U.S. Treasury yields can’t be maintained, U.S. financial market liquidity may collapse, even threatening the stability of U.S. stocks. The second risk affects the U.S. real economy. If U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, the recent AI-driven stock decline has already served as a warning—liquidity and AI narrative are causing a double squeeze. If the Japanese carry trade reverses and $2 trillion of global funds simultaneously withdraw from the U.S., combined with midterm election disruptions, U.S. stocks could spiral downward. At that point, AI companies won’t be able to finance, and the much-anticipated AI industrial revolution in the U.S. may fail again. As the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the last defender of the financial system, Yellen has to sacrifice her own credibility to intervene—transforming from the dragon slayer of the past into the very dragon she once fought. This round of intervention has just begun; the yen has just stabilized below 160. The next risk point is whether the yen can break above 150. If it does, the entire carry trade capital could avalanche out in a stampede, triggering a financial tsunami in global markets. Whether this turns into a black swan event depends on Yellen’s next moves. The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise Tonight's US Nonfarm Payrolls data came as a surprise; my previous view was that the data would weaken, but I didn't expect it to turn negative outright. US stocks opened higher and continued to rise, while gold surged past 4400 before starting to fluctuate. Regarding the previously mentioned 50/200-day moving average strategy, entering near the 50-day moving average around 4200 should offer a comfortable rhythm. Next up is the 200-day moving average at the $4500 mark, which is expected to present significant resistance, with possible fluctuations and even potential suppression by the US. Of course, if it breaks through, the path ahead is clear, with the previous high of 5000 in sight. Today, the A-share market remains strong. As always, no need to worry before 4000 points; a drop could actually be an opportunity. The non-ferrous metals sector has recently gained momentum, and with the US dollar index declining, this continues to benefit non-ferrous metals, as long as they hold steady. After tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls, the market pulled back somewhat, clearly showing doubts about the data's credibility. Additionally, the Federal Reserve currently does not place much emphasis on employment data, which indicates market divergence and a controlled pace of increase—this is actually a good thing. If the market surged straight up, investors might chase blindly without enough time to build positions, and any negative news afterward would cause a sharp drop, forcing many out. Do we want to relive the July disaster? A-shares, US stocks, and gold steadily rising is the most friendly trend for retail investors. Regarding Bitcoin, the bill has been confirmed to be postponed until September, but no need to rush; the market environment is still favorable, just giving more time to accumulate chips. Everyone, keep a stable mindset, actively position during pullbacks, and steadily recover in this favorable environment! Have a great weekend. The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks.

The Federal Reserve also can't save the market The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has been fluctuating recently, but strangely, the US stock market is no longer falling, and gold isn't dropping either. Could it be that the US stock market has become desensitized to oil prices? Let me say something counterintuitive: The repeated tensions the US stirs up in the Middle East have nothing to do with geopolitics or the US stock market; behind it all is a focus on the liquidity of the global capital markets. Some have said that the US is targeting Iran this time to control the global oil supply. That makes sense, but it's not the core essence. Because the US is not short on oil now, and the dollar is no longer anchored to oil extracted from underground but to computing power running in data centers. Oil is the lifeblood of traditional industry, but AI is the brain of the future economy. The impact of oil price fluctuations from March to July this year on the global market is gradually losing its magic. The entire financial market sees that this oil crisis is not triggering a global stagflation like in the 1970s; instead, it highlights China's voice in the energy market across the ocean. This time at the Strait of Hormuz, China has delivered a perfect answer—new energy substitution. By 2025, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate has surpassed 50%, and its installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power ranks first globally. We do import 40% of our crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, but this time, with massive oil reserves and over 50% installed capacity of wind and solar green power, we've effectively replaced the rigid demand for traditional petrochemical energy. Wall Street financial capital sitting behind the so-called "King of Understanding" initially wanted to make a fortune from this oil crisis by aggressively going long on oil. But they unexpectedly found that China, a major oil consumer, not only didn't scramble to buy oil on the market but is living quite comfortably. The strategic deterrence of the Strait of Hormuz has been largely neutralized. The so-called comprehensive oil blockade now has become a performance where neither the US nor Iran dares to upset the table. The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is like a last flicker of the old energy era. China has already stood at the global energy high ground. A complete industrial chain for exporting global new energy has reshaped the global energy landscape. Oil has lost its power to strangle the global economy; the future dominant force in financial markets will be AI technology. Seeing through this big trend means you won't be scared into frequent panic selling by geopolitical news. More attention should be paid to the post-oil-dollar 2.0 version—the dollar AI anchor. In the future, the dollar cycle will add an AI cycle based on AI infrastructure devices and AI data tokens, beyond the traditional economic oil cycle and financial liquidity cycle. This is the core of the future dollar and global financial liquidity. The above is only a personal opinion and does not represent investment advice. Please be aware of risks.

The Federal Reserve also struggles to save the market Today, global markets continued to rise after volatile consolidation; both A-shares and U.S. stocks experienced slight fluctuations. This trend is very normal and does not require any action. Gold has stabilized above $4300, continuing to build momentum. Unlike the past few months, it did not break through only to be immediately hammered down by bears. This time, the breakout is stronger. Today, the "three men" had no major news, except that the Financial Times in the UK reported in the evening that "people familiar with Wash's thinking said" if inflation data is hotter in the coming weeks, Wash is ready to raise rates at the September rate decision. I think this is another round of expectation management, aiming to suppress long-term U.S. Treasury yields, but the effect is not ideal as Treasury yields actually rose. Overall, the current market environment is: · U.S. stocks' AI sector is gradually warming up; mid-to-lower stream new main themes await more evidence to ferment, returning to an upward trend · Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury issues remain unresolved; gold benefits but watch out for the dollar breaking above 100 · A-shares fluctuate upward, but the 4000-point resistance is significant · Bitcoin: The Senate may extend meetings to next week to gain more time for the Clarity Act Maintain a stable mindset, reduce operations, and steadily recover your capital. The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks.

The Federal Reserve also can't save the market Seven months after the four platforms landed, the streets of Japan are still lively with singing and dancing. Don't rush; the real pain hasn't arrived yet. In January this year, China's Ministry of Commerce issued the first announcement implementing export controls on dual-use items to Japan. In February, 20 core Japanese military-industrial companies, including Mitsubishi Shipbuilding, were directly placed on the control list, and another 20 companies like Subaru were put on the watch list. Seven months have passed, and watching domestic Japanese news gives the illusion that nothing has happened—factories haven't stopped production, supermarket prices haven't risen, and no politician has come out complaining. But the truth is hidden in customs data. From March to April this year, China's rare earth exports to Japan plummeted by 80% year-on-year, with some heavy rare earth categories cut off. Elements like dysprosium and terbium are essential for missile guidance heads, submarine silent motors, and core magnets in hybrid cars. Japan's dependence on China's heavy rare earths is nearly 100%. Why are Japanese companies still operating normally despite such grim data? Because they are burning through inventory. Over the past decade, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has established a national strategic resource reserve system, with companies holding about 3 to 6 months of commercial inventory. Initially, many manufacturers' first reaction was to hold on, moving inventory while searching worldwide for substitutes. Mitsubishi Electric even started recovering rare earths from discarded air conditioner compressors, and some companies resorted to high-temperature incineration of scrapped electric vehicles just to extract lithium and rare earths. This operation sounds quite heartbreaking—a country renowned worldwide for precision manufacturing resorting to scavenging methods to keep production lines running. This itself indicates that the normal supply chain has been cut off; the consequences just haven't reached the end users yet. Inventory will eventually run out. The industry generally predicts that from the second half of this year to the end of the year, the last batch of strategic reserves will be consumed, and the impact of production halts and cuts will spread from small and medium-sized Japanese enterprises to the entire manufacturing chain. This sanction fundamentally differs from previous Sino-Japanese trade frictions. Before, it was emotion-driven—you get upset and restrict some products, everyone makes a fuss and then sits down to negotiate, and after talks, things return to normal. Japanese companies have figured out this rhythm. But this time, it follows the legal procedures of the export control law, not administrative orders or diplomatic statements. It's a systematized long-term mechanism that won't be automatically lifted just because you hold a few meetings. This control is very precise; civilian trade proceeds normally, but if you involve military use, military users, or ambiguous areas like Subaru's unclear end-use, it's a direct cutoff. The key is a long-arm jurisdiction clause—any third party in any country or region that resells Chinese-origin dual-use items to Japanese military-related parties will also be held accountable. This clause directly blocks Japan's attempts to procure through Southeast Asia, the Middle East, or even European white gloves. Previously, they could find intermediaries in South Korea or Singapore to resell, but now anyone who dares to help Japan circumvent will likely be blacklisted. This is not a diplomatic game of slapping and then giving candy; it's legally sealing off the resource channels of Japan's military-industrial system, with the key in China's hands. Short-term losses are not the scariest thing for Japan; who hasn't experienced one or two years of cyclical difficulties? What truly chills the entire industry is another ongoing trend—China is permanently closing its market door to them. In the semiconductor sector, Japan's five major chip equipment giants had up to 50% of their revenue from the Chinese market in recent years. But due to Japan cooperating with the U.S. in semiconductor restrictions against China, combined with China's countermeasures, these companies' sales in mainland China have declined annually for the first time this year. Tokyo Electron's mainland China revenue share dropped from 50% to 27%, and the entire Japanese semiconductor sector lost nearly ¥500 billion. But this is not the core issue. The core question is: who is taking over the market share vacated by Japanese companies? Chinese domestic suppliers. In recent years, in many subfields heavily reliant on Japanese imports—semiconductor materials, high-end sensors, special alloys, precision ceramics—domestic substitution has accelerated. It wasn't that they didn't want to use domestic products before; it was that performance and stability were insufficient, and downstream users were reluctant to try. Now, with external supplies cut off, they have to use domestic products, and they find they work quite well. Domestic substitution is iterating continuously in real combat, and at China's speed, these alternatives are even catching up with or surpassing similar products, forming a perfect closed loop. Japanese politicians, in showing loyalty to the U.S. by cooperating in semiconductor restrictions against China, ended up counteracting their own exports to China; Chinese companies, though forced to pursue domestic substitution, have accelerated the maturity of their local supply chains. Once the domestic supply chain is firmly established, Japanese companies wanting to return will find no door open. Once a market is lost, it's hard to get it back. Users get used to other products that have similar performance, lower prices, and faster response—why would they turn back to you? Nomura Securities once estimated that if the controls last a year, Japan's economic loss would be about ¥2.6 trillion, dragging GDP down by 0.43%. But factoring in shrinking inbound tourism and other countermeasures, Japan's GDP contraction risk could approach 3%. These numbers are already ugly, but they only account for short-term shocks—no one dares to calculate how much Japan's manufacturing will shrink long-term after China completes full de-Japanization. The pain of this sanction for Japan is delayed; unlike military strikes that have immediate effects, it's more like chronic poisoning—no symptoms at first, but by the time you realize it, your organs have already failed. Japan's predicament essentially stems from choosing the wrong side in geopolitics. Sanae Takaichi repeatedly crossed red lines on Taiwan issues, thinking that backing the U.S. would make her fearless. But what can the U.S. give Japan? An ally demanding ¥80 trillion in investment, forcing it to buy 100 Boeing planes, and continuously increasing U.S. debt holdings—would it care about the long-term survival of Japanese companies? Japan is now being hit from both sides. The U.S. is squeezing its last drop of fiscal resources, and China is tightening its industrial lifeline. Caught in the middle, Japan's manufacturing can only slowly perish in silence. The real turning point will probably be from the end of this year to early next year. When inventory runs out, when China's substitute industrial chain matures, when market share shifts become irreversible, Japan will truly feel that in great power games, a small country that chooses the wrong side pays a far heavier price than it imagines. The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks.