#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 ——$SNDK SanDisk Investor Day was a blockbuster, with nearly a 14% increase in one day Last night, SanDisk really took off. It closed at $1528.11, up 13.67%, with an intraday high of $1580.88, trading volume reaching 33.1 billion, and a turnover rate of 15%. The core is the solid numbers released on Investor Day, August 13. For fiscal years 2028 to 2030, revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, operating margin about 75%, and adjusted free cash flow margin about 50%. The truly impressive part is the statement "100% excess cash returned to shareholders." Combined with the previous $14 billion new buyback, the remaining buyback quota reaches $15.5 billion. Goldman Sachs immediately set a target price of $2200, JPMorgan upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Overweight" with a target price of $2250. Susquehanna set a target of $3250, and RBC and Wells Fargo also raised their target prices overnight. More importantly, there are 8 NBM long-term contract customers, with a total contract value of about $94 billion. This covers about 50% of shipments in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal 2028. In 2023, the visibility was only three months, but now they are discussing four-year contracts. This model truly transforms the previously weather-dependent storage cycle business into something predictable. It surged nearly 14% in one day; chasing at this level is indeed not cost-effective in terms of risk-reward. Better to wait for a pullback.

#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 Both CPI and PPI have dropped, so why isn't $BTC moving? The data these past couple of days looks pretty good. CPI fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%. The next day, PPI dropped even more sharply, from 5.5% to 4.7%. Both reports point in the same direction — inflation is indeed cooling down. The CME's probability of a rate hike in September has directly fallen to around 35%. Logically, with rate hike expectations down, money should flow into risk assets, so BTC should rise, right? But the market is still stuck around 63,300, not moving at all. It can't break above 65,000, so no one dares to chase longs. It hasn't dropped to 61,000 either, so there's no good entry point. Entering now means being stuck with no clear direction, which easily causes anxiety. Better to wait until it really picks a direction. If it goes up, follow with a small position; if it goes down, wait for a better entry. No guessing, no rushing, no following emotions. Good data is good, but until the market moves, it doesn't count.

#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 ——$BTC CPI is stable, but $BTC hasn't moved; the market is waiting for a “surprise” Looking at the CPI data: 3.4%, core 2.5%, both precisely hitting expectations. Gasoline prices dropped 2.9%, driving energy prices down 1.5% month-over-month, which is the main reason CPI remained stable. The probability of a rate hike in September fell from nearly 50% a week ago to about 40%, while the probability of no change rose to 60%. CME data shows the September rate hike probability is now only 42%. And BTC? It bounced from 63,200 to 64,400, up less than 2%, then immediately dropped back near 63,500. The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, gold had a V-shaped reversal gaining over 1%, while BTC just lay flat as if nothing happened. “Meeting expectations” is the problem itself. The market had already priced this in—before the CPI release, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days totaling $850 million; those who wanted to buy have already done so. Digging deeper: the 3.4% CPI is still 1.4 percentage points above the Fed’s 2% target. Housing costs rose 0.1% in July, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase. Oil prices are still hovering above 80, and geopolitical risks remain. Someone bluntly said: “July’s CPI data is moderate enough to reduce the probability of a September rate hike, but long-term price pressures have not been resolved.” Next, watch several key events: tonight’s PPI, the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of August, September 4th’s nonfarm payrolls, and September 11th’s CPI. What can truly make BTC jump isn’t “meeting expectations,” but a “surprise”—either inflation significantly below expectations or employment data unexpectedly weak. Meeting expectations means no direction; no direction means no movement.

Tomorrow $OKB burn will take place, I'll hold this position and see how it goes Tomorrow at 2 PM, 65,256,712 OKB will be burned all at once, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million. This is the final step in the OKX tokenomics upgrade. Tomorrow at 10 AM, OKT will also start automatically swapping to OKB. On August 18, the contract upgrade will completely remove minting and burning functions. OKB is transforming from an exchange platform token into the Gas token for the X Layer public chain, which is definitely a bigger narrative than before. Back in August 2025, when the burn was announced, OKB surged from $47 to $141, tripling in value, but after the spike, it sharply retraced and consolidated for over half a year. No one can say for sure how it will move tomorrow. My position isn't large, and I have enough floating profit. I'll take profit once it hits my target price; if not, I'll keep holding. Tomorrow at 2 PM, let's wait and see. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$OKB

After the CPI release, will you adjust your position immediately or continue to observe? Meeting expectations is the best expectation, but I still choose to hold for now. I glanced at it tonight; CPI came out at 3.4%, in line with expectations. $BTC first dropped then rose, falling from 64452 to around 64000 before bouncing back, now hovering around 64100. Liquidations reached 223 million, affecting over 100,000 people. The data itself is not surprising; meeting expectations is the best expectation. On the CME side, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 47% to 44.1%, while the probability of no change rose to 55.9%. Oil prices rebounded more than 20% this month, so inflation hasn't been completely suppressed. Employment data is also weak; July nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000. BTC is now at 64100, failing to break above 65000 or drop below 61000. Data that meets expectations won't provide new direction for the market; most likely, it will continue to oscillate between 63500 and 64900. Movement up or down is possible, but neither is certain. Friday still has PPI, and next week the Fed minutes are due—lots of events lined up. Before a direction emerges, taking action is a gamble. I choose to keep watching and wait for Friday's PPI. Meeting expectations means no direction; no direction means no action. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到

The Strait of Hormuz is stuck again; a conflict is very unlikely to break out, but oil prices have already surged. Scrolling through my phone tonight, I saw that trending topic saying the navigation agreement hasn't been finalized yet【IMG_3176】. I was thinking, this drama has been playing out since June, still oscillating between "close to agreement" and "on the verge of collapse." The current situation is that a war won't break out in the short term, but things aren't getting better either. Both sides are now exchanging harsh words. Iran has set sky-high conditions: permanent cessation of military actions, lifting all sanctions, returning frozen assets, and compensating for war damages. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister clearly stated that there have been no direct talks with the U.S. On the U.S. side, the rhetoric is even tougher; Trump directly declared that the U.S. military has "100% control" over the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are talking past each other, not even on the same wavelength. But a large-scale war won't break out anytime soon. CCTV's analysis is very straightforward: the U.S. "military quick victory" plan has failed, and both sides know neither can defeat the other. The current state is a tug-of-war of "applying pressure while negotiating," with a very low probability of a full-scale war breaking out. Oil prices have already exploded. With the bleak outlook for the agreement, oil prices surged directly; Brent crude briefly broke above $90 per barrel. Traffic through the strait has also plummeted, dropping from 15 vessels on August 7 to 6 on the 9th. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also fallen below 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. The market is now completely driven by news; any slight disturbance can cause oil prices to jump wildly. The agreement is unlikely to be finalized in the short term. Iran treats the strait as a core bargaining chip; the U.S. cannot accept all those conditions outright. The so-called "negotiations" currently are just Iran and Oman discussing technical navigation details, with no real agreement with the U.S. As long as fundamental differences remain, the agreement is just a piece of paper that can be voided at any time. To put it bluntly, a war won't break out, and talks won't reach a consensus. Both sides are wearing each other down, waiting to see who breaks first. But for small retail investors like us, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. Oil prices are still fluctuating at high levels, inflation expectations won't come down, and without lower inflation, the Fed won't dare to ease. This drama is far from over. #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温

#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 CPI will be released tomorrow night, will $BTC go up or down? I'm betting on down Lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone tonight, I glanced at BTC's price, hovering around 64000. It surged to 65300 during the day but couldn't hold and dropped back down. CPI will be announced at 8:30 PM tomorrow, and the market is currently waiting for this data to set the direction. Last week when the non-farm payroll data came out, new jobs added were only 57,000, nearly half less than the expected 110,000. Logically, poor employment = no rate hike = bullish for BTC. So what happened? BTC rose for less than 5 minutes then dropped. Why? Because oil prices rose again. US-Iran negotiations stalled, Brent crude surged back to $89 [IMG_3168]. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise too, making the Fed even less likely to ease. On one hand, weak employment suggests easing; on the other, rising oil prices discourage easing. BTC is stuck between these two forces, unable to rise or fall decisively. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has climbed to 51.3%, up from about 44% a week ago. ETFs are also starting to exit. This indicates funds are pulling out ahead of the CPI release. Three CPI scenarios: Below expectations (<3.3%): bullish, BTC might surge to 70000. In line with expectations (3.3%-3.5%): sideways, continuing to fluctuate between 63000-65000. Above expectations (>3.6%): bearish, possibly retesting 60000-62000. I lean toward the third scenario, with limited upside and greater downside risk. The 65000 level has been tested multiple times without holding, showing clear selling pressure. Also, oil prices are still hovering above 80, and their inflationary impact won't disappear quickly. Since 65000 has been tested several times without breaking through, I'm betting on down. I'll wait for tomorrow's data before making a move, no rush.

$DOS just tripled right after launch, and the AI infrastructure earnings season has also arrived In the afternoon, I took a look at DOS, priced at 0.4939, up 26%. It was only listed on OKX at 20:00 yesterday, followed by Gate, Binance Alpha, BingX, Bitget, and HiBT. Binance Alpha was listed on August 10, Gate went live with spot trading at 19:00 on August 10, and BingX also launched spot trading on August 11. Within a day or two, seven or eight exchanges listed it simultaneously, pushing the price up more than threefold. Looking into this project, DAPPOS is a Web3 AI operating system that packages AI research, strategy planning, and on-chain execution into one platform. Its flagship product is called xBubble, which can automatically orchestrate executable AI plans from simple user commands. Binance invested early in this project, which is among the institutions favored in the AI+Crypto sector. However, newly launched coins usually have unstable price movements. At 0.49, the price has already increased several times from yesterday’s opening low, with many short-term profit takers. The initial price discovery phase for new coins is not complete, so fluctuations are large. I have a 20x leverage position open with unrealized profit less than 1%, so I’ll watch for now. Additionally, several important AI infrastructure earnings reports are due today. Lumentum’s after-hours report is expected to show Q4 revenue of $988 million, up 105% year-over-year; CoreWeave’s Q2 revenue is expected at $2.555 billion, up 110% year-over-year. Before the reports, Coherent and Lumentum’s stock prices dropped 12% and 7% respectively, as funds exited ahead of earnings. SpaceX is also interesting. On August 6, 911 million shares will be unlocked, raising market concerns about selling pressure, but the stock price rose instead of falling, closing at 138.74 on Monday, reclaiming the IPO price of 135. Another 7% of restricted shares will unlock on August 20. With new coin listings, AI earnings, and share unlocks all happening together, the market is quite chaotic. I’ll keep this position open and focus on the direction. I’ll decide when to exit later. New coins are volatile right after launch, so don’t be greedy. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

The cola is still the same cola, but the contract is new Lying on the sofa at night scrolling through my phone, I saw that the KOUSDT contract was still hovering around 87, with 20x leverage and unrealized profit less than one percent. This trade is going quite steadily, just like the Coca-Cola stock, quiet but always there. Looking through the news, over the past half month, major exchanges have seemingly coordinated to line up the perpetual contract for Coca-Cola. Bybit launched it first at the end of July, offering up to 25x leverage. Binance followed on August 6th at 5 PM, with up to 20x leverage. XT also launched it at 6 PM the same day. KOUSDT quickly became a standard in the TradFi section across major platforms. Behind the rush to list it is Coca-Cola’s impressive recent earnings report. Q2 revenue was $13.4 billion, up 7% year-over-year, beating market expectations. Adjusted EPS was $0.97, 4 cents above estimates. Global case volume grew 5%, double the forecast. Zero Sugar Coke sales surged 16%, even Buffett had to say, “This business is indeed stable.” The World Cup marketing also helped a lot. Coca-Cola is a major FIFA sponsor, and this event fully introduced hydration breaks, boosting Powerade’s presence. The company simultaneously raised its full-year guidance, increasing expected organic revenue growth from 4%-5% to about 5%. Exchanges racing to list, earnings beating expectations, stock price hitting all-time highs. This is Coca-Cola — even when doing contracts in crypto, it’s backed by a legacy asset that has raised dividends for 64 consecutive years. No need to understand AI narratives or analyze candlesticks; a can of cola sold worldwide is just good business. This trade can stay open as long as it’s right; we’ll talk about exiting when the time comes. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

In the morning, I thought it was going to drop, but it directly pulled up. Opened the shop in the morning, after the morning rush, I glanced at $SOL. Last night before bed, I was thinking if this wave had peaked and should go down a bit. But when I woke up this morning and saw 76.93, it not only didn’t drop but surged up a bit. After checking the news, I realized there are two things fermenting on Solana’s side, both related to supply-side expectations. One is proposal SGP-0003, which aims to increase the daily SOL burn from 650 to 7,500–9,000. The other is doubling the inflation slowdown, bringing the 1.5% target forward to 2029. Together, these two mean 18.9 million fewer SOL issued over six years, worth $1.36 billion. Currently, about 63 million SOL have signaled support, with around 3 million more needed to enter the formal voting stage, which ends on August 18. Although it’s still some way from official approval, 73 validator nodes have already expressed their stance. On-chain data also supports this. On August 4, Solana processed 1.699 million non-voting transactions, setting a single-day record. Stablecoin transaction volume also surpassed Ethereum, showing this wave is truly solid network activity. This isn’t just pure speculation. A tenfold increase in burn volume, accelerated inflation slowdown, plus rising on-chain activity—putting these together, it’s reasonable for the price to push upward. At 76.93, the unrealized gain is nearly 20%. I haven’t moved, still holding. Waiting to see if it can reach around 80; will decide then. If it can’t hold, I’ll exit. Sometimes, the market is more patient than you think. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$SOL #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温