Damn, $ZEC exploded again, made a quick profit in two days, and got back into zec, it's too tempting 😭 This altcoin pumps really fast, it's just a harvesting machine, playing with it makes me a dog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

$ZEC is off, very likely something's wrong!! $BTC $ETH

The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5%. How has the US stock market historically performed under similar circumstances? This time, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.014% intraday, marking the first time since 2023 it has crossed the 5% threshold. Although it slightly retreated by the close, it broke nearly three years of oscillation below 5%. Looking back at history, once the US Treasury yield breaks 5%, the market tends to follow one of two paths. One is short-term volatility, with yields falling back below 5% within a few months; The other is more troublesome, with yields stuck at high levels for over a thousand trading days, meaning the market fully accepts the reality that "high interest rates will persist long-term." This time, it lingered below 5% for over 700 trading days before breaking through, indicating it’s not a simple small fluctuation but a shift in market perception of interest rates. US Treasuries are equivalent to risk-free investments. When yields rise above 5%, money tends to flow out of high-risk assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Borrowing costs increase, putting pressure on corporate profits, with growth stocks and AI chip stocks bearing the brunt. $MU Historically, when the US stock market encounters this situation, it mostly experiences volatility and weakness, with amplified fluctuations. $SNDK $BTC and $ETH are both risk assets, so rising US Treasury yields are bearish. Investors become more conservative and less willing to speculate with money in crypto, which is one reason for the recent continuous outflow of ETF funds. This coincides with the FOMC meeting. The Treasury yield breaking 5% adds another layer of tension to the market. If interest rates remain high, it will be difficult for risk assets to enter a major bull market. Of course, there’s no need to be blindly bearish; short-term oscillations and sharp moves are likely.

Buying US 10-year Treasury bonds now guarantees a steady 5% return with basically no major risk. Just lying back and buying US Treasuries now can yield stable returns, naturally attracting institutional funds. A lot of money will be pulled out from the crypto circle and US tech stocks to buy US Treasuries for risk aversion. $SNDK The reason yields are rising is that the market believes inflation can't be suppressed, and the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time, with even the possibility of rate hikes. The US keeps issuing new debt, and to attract others to take over, it has to raise interest rates. $MU $SKHYNIX This situation is not good for our crypto circle. Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH are both high-risk assets. On one hand, there are stable 5% US Treasuries, and on the other, the volatile cryptocurrencies. Funds will definitely hesitate. This also explains why BTC spot ETFs have been continuously flowing out. When US Treasury yields rise, borrowing costs become more expensive. US AI and chip stocks bear the brunt first, and the crypto circle suffers along. Especially Ethereum, which is more volatile than Bitcoin, has weaker resilience in this environment. Coincidentally, the FOMC decision is about to be announced. US Treasuries breaking through 5% directly intensifies market tension. If yields stay steadily above 5%, risk assets will find it hard to have a decent rally. Only if the Fed's speech is dovish and Treasury yields fall can Bitcoin and Ethereum have a chance to rebound. News tends to fluctuate back and forth, and intraday spikes are common. With so many macro variables piling up, don't heavily bet on a one-sided move. Be patient and wait for tonight's Fed decision before making a move.

The $ETH CLARITY bill vote failed to pass, directly impacting Ethereum sentiment. The previous surge to 2540 quickly cooled off and has now started to pull back and fluctuate. It is completely linked to Bitcoin's movement, with even greater volatility elasticity. Whenever there is any market disturbance, Ethereum's price swings are more intense. Previously, market speculation on the bill passing pushed prices up, but now that the bill failed to secure 60 votes, short-term bullish expectations have been dashed. Many funds that had positioned early chose to take profits and exit. The 2540-2560 range above has now become a strong resistance zone; to break through it again requires strong buying power. On the downside, short-term support is seen around 2460. If this defense line fails, the correction space will further open up. Currently, everyone in the market is waiting for the FOMC interest rate decision. With high expectations of rate hikes, large funds are hesitant to enter the market to speculate. Market liquidity tightens, and price spikes will become more frequent. $BTC At this stage, it is an adjustment phase after expectations have been realized, with intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Bulls are hoping the Federal Reserve will signal a more dovish stance to trigger a rebound; bears are betting on the rate hike implementation combined with the bill's failure, a double negative continuing to press the market down. You can watch the direction, but do not chase trades recklessly. In a volatile phase, whether going long or short, it is easy to get stopped out by intraday price spikes. Ethereum has thin liquidity and high volatility; once the market moves, its price changes will outpace Bitcoin's. Before the FOMC decision is released, prioritize position control, reduce heavy speculation, and wait for the macro dust to settle before assessing the true trend direction.

The procedural vote on the $BTC CLARITY Act in the Senate has concluded, with results falling short of market expectations. It failed to secure the 60 votes needed to proceed to formal consideration, effectively stalling the bill at this stage and making its passage this year highly unlikely. This vote was only a procedural motion to end debate, not the final vote on the bill’s enactment, but it was crucial. All Republicans supported it, but they only garnered 53 votes. The hope to sway at least 7 Democratic senators to cross party lines was not realized, leaving a gap in bipartisan support. Even though Republicans made early concessions, amending hundreds of clauses addressing core disagreements such as stablecoin yields, conflicts of interest for public officials holding crypto assets, and DeFi developer liabilities, no agreement was reached. Once the vote results were announced, the previously hyped positive expectations for the bill’s passage instantly cooled. Subsequently, U.S. crypto regulation will revert to the old model, relying mainly on SEC enforcement actions without a unified and clear legislative framework for the industry. In the short term, market sentiment will be impacted, with funds that entered betting on the bill’s success starting to exit, likely causing a wave of selling pressure. However, there is no need to panic excessively. The bill is only temporarily shelved, not permanently discarded. There will be opportunities to revise the text and resubmit it for a vote, but this will have to wait for the next congressional session, which could take a very long time. Currently, the market is also focused on this week’s FOMC interest rate meeting. With a cluster of policy announcements, market volatility will increase. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 78,000, and combined with the negative sentiment from the bill’s failure, the battle between bulls and bears will intensify. After expectations are dashed, sharp price spikes and shakeouts are likely, so position sizes should be controlled during high-level trading.

#This week's FOMC announcement, will the rate hike happen? FOMC countdown, I believe this rate hike will not happen! This week's market focus is entirely on the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. Currently, interest rate futures price in nearly a 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike, with most institutions betting on the hike happening, but I think there will be no rate hike. Although August CPI data slightly exceeded expectations and rising oil prices have raised inflation concerns, the inflation is more of a short-term disturbance caused by energy and has not shown sustained deterioration. Employment data is not persistently overheated, and the economy is not at a point where immediate tightening is necessary. The Federal Reserve can choose to pause the rate hike, keep an observation window open, and wait for more data to verify; there is no need to act forcefully. Of course, high probability does not equal certainty. The market has already priced in much of the rate hike expectation. The real focus has never been whether to hike or not, but the post-meeting dot plot and statements. Even if there is no rate hike, if the tone remains hawkish, implying possible hikes later, risk assets will still face pressure. Rate hikes would be after November. If the rate is indeed kept unchanged, it would be an unexpectedly positive signal, directly boosting market sentiment. Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH would see a wave of impulse moves. But beware of profit-taking after the positive news is realized. Currently, Bitcoin is stuck oscillating around 78,000, and Ethereum is repeatedly testing around 2,500. Funds are collectively cautious and reluctant to enter aggressively. ETFs are still experiencing outflows, and the market itself lacks incremental buying.