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$CAP is rebounding today, is it time to short now?
$CAP 今天从底部反弹上来了。 我昨天写的文章里讲到了这个，我说要慎重做空，因为可能会在这边磨一磨。 今天我看它反弹了，然后我又去看了一下它数据。 数据其实没有那么支持现在做空，但是我个人最后还是做空了。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，它的合约持仓量在稳步的上涨，多空比在稳步下降。 常看我文章的人应该知道，这说明有资金在做空。 确确实实也是这样的，因为它毕竟反弹上来了嘛。 一般来说，上涨就会吸引很多做空的资金，下跌就会吸引很多做多的资金。 我们再来看一下它近期的合约数据。 可以发现，它的持仓量是呈现一个先下跌后上涨的趋势，多空比是呈现一个先上升后下降的趋势。 目前来看，那持仓量并没有上升到上一次暴跌前的位置，多空比也并没有下降到上一次暴跌前的位置。 我看到这个数据，做空的时候其实是比较犹豫的。 不过，我最后还是做空了。 —————————————————— 我个人认为，目前$CAP 短期应该是见顶或者接近顶部了。 我在$0.05 左右的位置做空的，我认为这个位置应该是短期的高位了。 而且，它从底部到现在也已经翻了三四倍了，涨得已经很多了。
Once $ETH $BTC positions are closed, it's really a struggle to re-enter a second time!
Before closing, seeing the floating profits fluctuate doesn't affect me emotionally, but the moment I close and the profit is in hand, I automatically treat that profit as my own principal.
I don't mind if the profit decreases, but losing principal feels really painful. Even though the amounts are the same, the feelings are completely different.
Mainly, the closing position last night wasn't very good; I closed at 1876, and now the price fluctuations are very small. If it drops below 1876, I don't want to buy back because that would raise my cost basis, so it would have been better not to exit last night.
If it goes above 1876, the highest now is 1881, just 5 points higher, which is too little. I was hoping to catch at least a 10-point move, and there's also the possibility of a pump, but I'm afraid of losing money.
It's so painful; human nature is really greedy and fragile. A rebound to just above 1881 shouldn't be a good thing? It means the upward momentum is weak, which is good for shorting.
The thoughts I had before closing are impossible to follow through immediately after closing 😖 $ETH
Snapshot at 10 Aug 2026, 23:23
$BICO Come down, come down Target floating profit 1000% then start reducing positions
Currently BEAT also floating profit 600%➕
GRVT just started floating profit
Snapshot at 11 Aug 2026, 21:10
Influential Creator
Why does Musk want to make chips? Because he said that currently, the global chip production capacity only meets 2% of Tesla and SpaceX's demand.
TSMC, Samsung, and Micron's expansion speeds are far below Musk's expectations, so he decided to build the largest chip factory in history.
Elon Musk's chip factory is named Terafab, planned to cover 100 million square feet, larger than the Pentagon, Apple headquarters, and Giga Texas combined.
The initial investment is $16.8 billion, with a potential long-term investment of $119 billion. The goal is an annual production capacity of 1 terawatt of computing power, about twice the current total chip production capacity of the entire United States.
This is not just about building a chip factory for himself; it’s about making the light source for the lithography machines as well.
Currently, advanced process chips worldwide must use ASML's EUV lithography machines, each costing over a billion dollars, with global queues and tight supply expected to continue for a long time.
The traditional EUV light source scheme uses 50,000 laser shots per second to hit tin droplets, evaporating tin into plasma that emits extreme ultraviolet light. It’s mature but has a power ceiling, and tin contaminates the optical system. Each machine has one set of light sources.
Musk wants to use the FEL scheme, which is completely different: a particle accelerator accelerates electrons close to the speed of light, passing through a magnet array to directly generate extreme ultraviolet light. It has higher power, cleaner light, no tin contamination, and one central light source can supply the entire factory simultaneously.
0xkevin00
A few days ago, I said Elon Musk was going to sell the Tesla Shanghai factory, and the comment section said it was all debunked.
That's because you don't understand Musk; his denials are even more genuine than confirmations 😂
In-depth analysis: Why Tesla Shanghai won't be sold, and why Musk can't achieve a closed loop from chips to satellites, from ground to space?
On August 6, SpaceX and Tesla jointly announced the construction of a super chip factory. One of these companies has US defense contracts, and the other is a giant with 45% of global production based in Shanghai.
A military aerospace company that completely excludes Chinese factors is going to deeply bind with an automaker that owns the largest single factory in China. The security reviews between the two countries can delay or kill the project.
There are also three actions that are more sincere than words:
First, restricting Chinese employees' access to global data.
According to multiple media reports, Tesla may be separating the office systems of China and the US businesses, restricting Chinese employees from directly accessing business data and systems in other regions.
Second, initiating supply chain relocation; SpaceX is completely excluding Chinese factors from its global supply chain.
Third, Tesla invested $2 billion to purchase SpaceX shares.
In March this year, Tesla spent $2 billion to buy SpaceX shares. Although the stake is less than 1%, the significance of this transaction lies not in the shareholding ratio but in the upgrade from business cooperation to capital connection between the two companies.
So these two companies are not only deeply cooperating in business but may even merge in the future. Musk's response to the merger question was that it is not suitable to discuss on a conference call and must follow proper procedures. This is not a denial; it is not a denial.
The Shanghai factory is too important, which is why it is even more dangerous.
In the first half of 2026, the Shanghai factory will deliver nearly 468,000 vehicles, accounting for more than 54% of global production. Such an important asset, how could Tesla possibly give it up?
But on the other hand, precisely because the Shanghai factory is so important and deeply connected to the Chinese supply chain, it becomes more sensitive in the context of Tesla and SpaceX integration.
The larger the Shanghai factory, the higher the future cost of separation, and the "institutional distance" that must be maintained between it and sensitive businesses like SpaceX must also be greater.
Musk's chip empire blueprint is clear and grand: use Terafab to achieve high-end chip self-supply, use SpaceX's military orders and Starlink network to build space AI infrastructure, and use Tesla's autonomous driving and robots to consume computing power. This is a closed loop from chips to satellites, from ground to space.
But this closed loop has one premise: it must pass US national security review.
Key points: Some thoughts on this altcoin season:
Playing this altcoin cycle with the logic of the last altcoin cycle will inevitably lead to a mental breakdown.
What everyone thinks about the altcoin season:
1. Like the last cycle, all coins rise, whether new or old coins.
2. The increase matches the last cycle's rise; only then is it called a rise, only then is it called an altcoin season.
In fact, many altcoin sectors in this bull market are already relatively large. If you haven't made money, it's because:
1. You missed the rhythm and missed the explosive sectors.
2. You entered late, with a high cost basis.
For example, if you bought wld at 9u or ordi at 70u and call them trash, saying there's no altcoin season, look at how much they've risen from the bottom to the highest point. Why didn't you buy earlier?
The two altcoins above belong to the local hotspot altcoin season.
Those holding onto old coins shouldn't fantasize that all old coins will reach or even break their previous highs; not every coin is inj.
Most old coins have already exited the historical stage, but in the final phase of the bull market, they will still have a spike to show respect to the bull market.
Influential Creator
The storage sector now basically has very little volatility, but trading volume still ranks among the top. It feels like Hynix's trend is somewhat similar to SpaceX's before, where after extreme deleveraging ended, both bulls and bears exited, entering a high turnover + low amplitude accumulation phase.
Although the narrative bubble has burst, the fundamentals of Samsung, Hynix, and Micron are indeed solid, especially compared to SpaceX, which has a real profit anchor.
Against the backdrop of AI's rapid development, even if we can't say storage will always be in shortage, demand remains strong, especially for HBM and server DRAM, which are indeed in tight supply. NAND supply might be the first to start improving in the future. So the growth ceiling for the three major memory makers should actually be higher than SanDisk's.
Currently, Hynix's common stock at 1,420,000 KRW/1000 USD seems to have a decent cost-performance ratio, so I opened a long position again to hold some, while ADRs have a premium, and I don't know when they might suddenly be leveled out. Psychologically, shorting ADRs feels more secure than going long, so I first go long on the common stock.
Generally, extreme market conditions last about two weeks, so now positioning for recovery has a much higher success rate than betting on further declines. $SKHYNIX $SNDK
$ETH Market Analysis 8/11
Yesterday's clear forecast: Ethereum's 90-minute upward momentum is seriously insufficient, short-term pullback expected
Last night's market moved as predicted, dropping all the way to around 1866
Previously defined support range was 1880–1900, currently barely holding at the low end, current price 1871
The box range has been broken, the correction is not over, just temporarily stopped falling and consolidating
Today's key lifeline: 1850
In a volatile market, don't chase highs; holding support and looking for lows is the most stable rhythm
Brothers.
I can no longer tell if I hold CORE, or if CORE holds me.
I used to panic a little when it dropped, thinking to run away quickly.
Now when it drops, my first reaction is:
“Oh, here we go again.”
This might be the highest state after being trapped for so long.
It's not that I'm not afraid.
It's that I've gotten used to it. $CORE
No. 16 Top Trader by 90D PnL%
🔥#PositionManagement 02
Assuming a principal of 1000u, 10x leverage full short position, how to allocate funds:
1. At least reserve 100% upside space, a 100% increase without liquidation is the bottom line;
2. Based on 100% increase, 10x leverage, the position can be up to 100u;
3. So how to allocate this 100u:
a. At any position you want to buy, set 20u as the upper limit;
b. At 50% increase, add 20u to lower the average price;
c. If there is no rapid short-term surge, absolutely do not add more positions; 🚫
d. If there is a rapid short-term surge, add the last 60u;
Use the length of the 15-minute candlestick as the judgment standard; a long candlestick is more than 3 times the length of a normal 15-minute candlestick, the longer the better, this is a signal of a downtrend, and you can heavily invest at this time.
If you want to reduce risk, then invest half, with at least 200% error tolerance.
❇️No matter how much you buy, even 10u, always set a stop loss and develop good trading habits❇️
🔴Every one of my short positions eventually falls, position reduced by 50%, this time it will definitely break 300,000, so where did I go wrong?
1. I always short on the left side, the position is always bad.
2. Overweight positions are the fundamental reason, setting the target too high; earning 800u daily, 150,000 a month, is not little.
3. Greed leads to loss of control, actually should be content and happy.
✅️Areas to improve:
Be patient and short on the right side
Influential Creator
There are always people DMing late at night asking, "Is the short god still shorting $BTC now?" Tonight, just above 64,000, both the 15-minute and 1-hour charts have plunged into deeply oversold territory, and the funding rate hasn't turned extremely negative yet—shorting at this position is no different from going all-in with a middle pair against a clearly stronger range in poker: low chances of winning and high cost if countered. To short, you need to catch the catalyst at the very first moment, not rush in with red eyes when everyone else is panicking to the extreme. When there's no trend confirmation, being out of position is also a position. Don't be a results-oriented gambler.