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AI Infrastructure Earnings Week Kicks Off: Lumentum Leads Tonight, the Three Giants of Optical Modules Submit Their Reports Together Tonight, after the U.S. stock market closes, there are three earnings reports you need to watch. Lumentum, after market close on August 11. CoreWeave, after market close the same day. Coherent, after market close on August 12. Plus Applied Materials and Cisco on August 13. This week is the "midterm exam" for the entire AI infrastructure industry chain. Optical modules, computing cloud, network equipment, semiconductor equipment—four segments, all reporting within five days. Let's start with tonight's first to appear—Lumentum. What kind of company is this? The core optical component supplier for Google's TPU AI computing chain, and also an indispensable optical module player for NVIDIA and AMD GPU computing chains. Dominating both sides. The market expects its Q4 revenue to be $988 million, a year-over-year surge of 105%. Earnings per share are expected to soar from 88 cents last year to nearly $3. But here’s the problem—the stock has risen 140% year-to-date and 345% over the past year. The current P/E ratio is 165. A P/E of 165 leaves no room for error. The options market has already priced in a post-earnings price swing of ±13%. Whether it rises 13% or falls 13% depends entirely on whether tonight’s numbers are solid enough. CoreWeave, reporting the same day, tells a different story. The leader in AI computing rental, with market expectations of Q2 revenue at $2.55 billion, a 110% year-over-year surge. But on the other hand—net profit is expected to be -$786 million, a 170% year-over-year deterioration. Revenue doubled, losses doubled as well. At the end of Q1, contract backlog was $99.4 billion, but adjusted operating margin plunged from 17% to 1%. This is the essence of the AI computing rental business: mountains of orders, paper-thin profits. Now, Coherent. Taking over after market close Thursday, market expects Q4 EPS of $1.62, up 62% year-over-year; revenue of $1.99 billion, up 30%. Interestingly—today during trading, Coherent fell 12%, Lumentum fell 7%. Earnings haven’t been released yet, but the stock price dropped first as a sign of respect. Why? Too expensive. Coherent’s P/E is 160, Lumentum’s is 146. Investors are proactively reducing positions before earnings to lock in profits. This is the fate of high-flying stocks: good earnings mean meeting expectations; bad earnings mean disaster. On Friday, Applied Materials closes the week. Market expects Q3 revenue of $9 billion, up 23% year-over-year; EPS of $3.36, up 35%. But one detail is worth noting—last quarter, Applied Materials’ operating profit grew 20%, but free cash flow plummeted from $1.06 billion to $210 million. Where did the money go? Inventory, capital expenditures, working capital—all consumed by AI infrastructure expansion. This script is exactly the same as Google and Tesla a few weeks ago. Finally, Cisco. After market close on August 12, the same day as Coherent. Market expects Q4 revenue of $16.85 billion, up 15% year-over-year. But what really excites the market is AI orders—Cisco raised its fiscal 2026 AI infrastructure order forecast from $5 billion to about $9 billion, nearly doubling. A 40-year-old veteran network equipment company, reactivated growth through AI. So what should you be watching this week? One thing: whether the heavy investment in AI infrastructure can truly translate into solid revenue and profits. Is Lumentum’s 105% growth real AI optical module demand or just one-time stocking? Is CoreWeave’s $99.4 billion order backlog real contracts or framework agreements with cancellation clauses? Can Coherent maintain its 30% growth and protect its profit margin? How long can Applied Materials sustain the cash flow hit from expansion? The market has moved past the stage where "storytelling" alone can drive stock prices up. Now it’s about the numbers. No one doubts the long-term logic of the AI infrastructure sector. But in the short term, valuations are already stretched to the limit. Lumentum rose 140% before reporting earnings; CoreWeave burned hundreds of millions to secure $99.4 billion in orders. At this level, beating earnings expectations is expected; missing them is fatal. This week, don’t just look at revenue and profit. Look at cash flow, order quality, and capital expenditure guidance. These are the real answers that determine whether the stock price can keep climbing. $LITE $CRWV $CSCO #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场