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比特币子棋
比特币子棋
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#闪迪投资者日后,长期目标成焦点 一周前,MU和SNDK财报后大跌,市场都在喊“AI存储结束了”。 我当时的判断是:下跌不是需求消失,而是预期透支后的估值消化。真正需要观察的,是跌下来以后有没有资金承接。 现在回头看,这个判断基本得到验证。 MU在800—820美元支撑区上方企稳,随后重新突破900美元,目前956美元,刚好进入此前给出的950—1000美元目标区。 SNDK的走势更加典型,财报后我在1420美元附近做空、1270美元附近止盈,吃到了预期兑现的下跌。 后续我认为: MU先盯950至1000美元。 放量站稳1000美元,趋势还能继续;重新跌破900美元,说明上方抛压还没消化完。 SNDK先看1580美元。 突破后可以看1650至1700美元;如果冲高后又跌回1500美元下方,就要防它回踩1350至1400美元。 我的判断没有改变: AI存储周期还没结束,但行情已经从“闭眼买都涨”,进入“订单、利润率和长期指引必须持续兑现”的阶段。 交易不是比赛谁卖在最高点,该赚的钱赚到了,剩下那段不属于我,也没必要因为不甘心再追进去,保持理性,坚决不能情绪上头!
比特币子棋
比特币子棋
#存储股财报后续跌,AI内存牛市还稳吗? This round of decline looks more like a repricing after expectations were overdrawn; demand has not disappeared, but the market is no longer satisfied with "decent performance" and instead demands companies to continue significantly exceeding expectations. Over the past year, capital has successively traded on AI computing power, HBM price increases, and storage cycle reversals. The question has shifted from "Does AI need memory?" to "How fast can demand continue to grow, and can profit margins keep improving?" Micron (MU) benefits from HBM volume growth, AI server demand, and DRAM cycle improvement. The fundamentals have not significantly weakened. The post-earnings adjustment mainly reflects the previous excessive price increase, with capital beginning to digest the valuation. Market focus: $800 to $820: first support; around $750: strong support; $900: short-term resistance. After stabilizing above $900, look towards $950 to $1000. SNDK mainly benefits from NAND, enterprise SSDs, and AI data center storage. Earnings were good, but the market worries whether NAND prices can be maintained and how much room there is left for margin improvement. Market focus: $1100 to $1150: short-term support; $1000: important defense level; $1300 to $1350: first resistance; $1500: confirmation level for trend strengthening. My judgment is that the AI memory market is not over, but the easiest first phase to make money has passed. Going forward, the market will be more selective; only companies that can continuously deliver on demand, orders, and profit margins will qualify for higher valuations.

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