CPI drops to 3.4% and you want a rate cut? Goldman Sachs says: Don't dream about it in 2026
"US July CPI year-on-year dropped to 3.4%, core CPI dropped to 2.5%, inflation cooling continuously."
Then you get excited: Is a rate cut coming? Is BTC going to hit 70,000?
Don't rush.
Flip to the next page—CME FedWatch data shows a 65.2% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September. The probability of no change in October drops to 50.1%.
65% of people think there won't be a rate hike in September, but no one thinks there will be a rate cut.
This is the reality you face.
July CPI year-on-year 3.4%, in line with expectations, previous 3.5%; core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, previous 2.6%. PPI year-on-year 4.7%, below the expected 4.9%, month-on-month flat. Weekly initial jobless claims rose to 209,000.
Inflation is cooling, employment is loosening—everything seems to be moving toward "it's time to ease."
But there's one number you must not ignore:
The Fed's 2% inflation target.
Between 3.4% and 2%, it's not just 0.4 percentage points—it's a whole year of the Fed "holding steady."
CNBC experts bluntly say: Inflation is still far above the Fed's 2% target. Capital.com analysts are even more direct—the Fed is unlikely to declare victory.
Now about institutions.
Goldman Sachs: No rate cuts for the entire year of 2026.
Goldman Sachs EMEA Head of Investment Strategy Matheus Dibo clearly stated: "The market is still digesting rate hike expectations, but we disagree. We believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future."
Goldman Sachs US Chief Economist David Mericle has deleted all 2026 rate cut forecasts, replacing them with two 25 basis point cuts in June and December 2027.
GDS Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Glenn Smith said it more painfully:
"At present, the Fed is very likely to keep rates unchanged through the end of the year."
Dongwu Securities and CITIC Securities both maintain the judgment of "no rate hikes within the year."
It's not "rate cuts delayed," it's "don't expect any this year."
More interestingly, the Fed itself is still arguing internally.
Richmond Fed President Barkin said: Supports holding steady, inflation mainly comes from tariffs and oil prices—"shocks that should fade."
Cleveland Fed President Mester directly pushed back: "The Fed must hike now because current policy is not restrictive, and inflation is rising due to recent shocks."
She voted against at the July FOMC meeting, supporting a 25 basis point hike.
One says no hike, one says must hike.
The Fed itself doesn't know which way to go, so why do you think a rate cut is coming soon?
Back to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin hovers around $64,000. For the past three weeks, it has fluctuated between $63,000 and $65,000. On August 14, it once dropped to $62,912, with $227 million in liquidations across the network.
Data improves, BTC doesn't rise. Data worsens, BTC doesn't fall.
This is the new normal under the "rate plateau."
Bitcoin pays no interest—this disadvantage is continuously amplified in a high interest rate environment. Short-term government bonds give you a guaranteed return of over 4%, while BTC has been sideways between $63,000 and $65,000 for months.
This comparison didn't exist in 2021. Back then, rates were zero, and BTC was the only casino.
Now it's different.
Finally, a harsh truth:
Don't apply the 2021 script to the 2026 market.
In 2021, the Fed rate was 0%, unlimited liquidity, BTC surged from 10,000 to 60,000.
In 2026, rates are 3.5%-3.75%, inflation 3.4%, Fed holding steady.
Two completely different worlds.
Big surges and crashes will decrease. Range-bound oscillation may be the main theme for the next few months.
This is neither a bear market nor a bull market.
This is the new normal under the "rate plateau"—wearing out short-term traders, the survivors win.
Inflation hasn't returned to 2%, so rate cuts won't come.
To survive in this market, rely on patience, not fantasy.
$BTC$ETH $OKB #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
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