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Crypture 科噗球
Crypture 科噗球
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目前來看 ARC 主網更像是 Circle 的一次掙扎 ARC 代幣銷售賺進 2.4 億,但它只是一次性收入,今年 Q3、Q4 認列 1.8 億,剩下 6 千萬明年認列,也就是 2026 的 EPS 會被這筆墊高,所以我認為這裡更像是空頭反彈順便炒作這個短期事件。到了 2027 年少掉這 1.8 億的高毛利收入,只補回 6 千萬,明年財報數字會被拖累。 持續收入的部分,ARC 鏈上手續費是使用 USDC ,而 Circle 只是 12 家節點中的一家,拿去年的 Solana 來說,全年鏈手續費是 6.03 億美元,就算給 ARC 第一年就做到這規模,12 家均分後 Circle 也只拿到約 5 千萬,對比年營收 28 億只增加 1.8%,而 ARC 主打的是低成本機構結算,實際只會遠低於此。 而且 Arc 上線後,如果資金只是從其他鏈上搬過去,那對收入也毫無影響,需要的是有資金特地鑄造 USDC 注入 ARC 鏈上,為 Circle 帶來準備金收入。 長期還是關注 USDC 流通量增長,60陸續買進的 $CRCL 本來打算長抱的,目前改作短單吧,已經上調止損到成本價以上,這單穩賺不賠看能飛到哪😃
Crypture 科噗球
Crypture 科噗球
In the long term, there is another negative factor: Circle continues to issue shares to pay salaries. Typically, companies issue shares to raise cash for operations, but Circle issues shares that are almost never invested in productive assets; instead, they are directly paid to people, including employee salaries, employee stock subscriptions, and business partnerships. This year, 10.34 million shares have been issued, with an estimated total of about 17.74 million shares for the year, equivalent to a market value of approximately $1.19 billion, increasing the circulating supply by 7%. In 2027, it is estimated that about 9.94 million shares will be issued, equivalent to a market value of about $667 million. Over two years, this totals $1.86 billion. After deducting the shares returned from employees exercising options, the net outflow is about $1.69 billion, which equals 98% of Circle's cash on hand, while the amount repurchased during the same period is zero. Even more astonishing is that Circle can issue up to 2.5 billion Class A shares, of which only 9.3% have been used so far, meaning it can still issue 10 times more. The currently authorized total issuance is about 78.7 million shares, roughly 31% of the circulating shares, and the authorized shares automatically replenish 6% of the circulating shares annually. The actual issuance volume each year is unilaterally decided by the compensation committee, and shareholders have no veto power. $CRCL

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