Tonight's market really broadens one's horizons; SanDisk's trend clearly demonstrates what it means to profit from mindless long positions. Before the US stock market opened, there was a slight rally, then at the opening, a massive $300 million trading volume hit, with bulls and bears clashing head-on. Pre-market rallied to 1646, then at open it was slammed down to 1567, an 80-point drop, then instantly pulled back above 1650. This wild behavior, who wouldn't say "respect". Dropping 80 points, then rallying 100 points, the bears just thought they won, but the next second they were crushed to the ground. My short position is indeed feeling uncomfortable now, floating losses are expanding, feels like the mindless sell-off from two weekends ago, only this time the direction is completely reversed. SanDisk's move is actually quite obvious—it's a shakeout. Regardless of bulls or bears, if the direction is wrong, it gets whipped back and forth. If it keeps surging past 1700, I might really consider locking in my position. Hope it shakes down a bit more so I can find an opportunity to reduce my holdings, so I’m not forced into a tight spot. Gold $XAU is also active, just had a strong rally, indicating funds are switching back and forth between safe haven and growth. The S&P and Nasdaq are still holding high, the overall market risk appetite has indeed returned. SanDisk's move today can only be described as truly SanDisk; this dual bull-bear kill play is really slick. Hope there’s another pullback shakeout so I can catch a breather. Can't hold on much longer, really need to lock in my position, this level is too uncomfortable. $SKHYNIX $SPCX #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证

The S&P 500's movement this week is indeed something. It just broke above 7700 on August 4th, and by August 13th it reached 7800, all within 7 trading days. A 100-point gain completed in just one week. PPI data came in below expectations, pushing the probability of a September rate hike below 40%. Citibank raised its earnings per share forecast from $350 to $365, with a target price of 8100. Inflation is cooling, rate cut expectations are heating up, and earnings forecasts are being revised upward. With these three factors combined, capital is rushing ahead; no one is stopping to wait. SanDisk $SNDK continues to charge upward, rising 2.7% pre-market to $1612. The momentum from Investor Day is still lingering; with an 80% gross margin and 100% cash return to shareholders, the market is digesting this long-term narrative. SK Hynix and Micron are following suit, and the memory sector as a whole is warming up. Gold $XAU, which had strong momentum a few days ago, is now pulling back, falling from its high to around 4355. Rate cut expectations should theoretically benefit gold, but the price has actually dropped. This indicates capital is flowing from safe-haven assets to risk assets; inflation is cooling, the economy isn't collapsing, so there's no need to keep money idle in gold. US stocks hitting new highs, memory stocks surging, gold pulling back—these three trends correspond to the same macro narrative. The S&P 500 is already above 7800, less than 3% away from 8000. Citibank's target price is 8100, and Reddit will be included in the S&P 500 next Monday, so there is still passive capital expected to enter the market in the short term. The macro environment is easing, capital flows are shifting, and earnings expectations are rising. The direction is clear; it should still push a bit before reaching 8000. But I won't chase the highs at this level. Just because the direction is right doesn't mean entering at the peak; wait for a pullback confirmation. The market never only goes up without falling. $SPY #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温

Why did I choose to short SanDisk during this violent surge? SanDisk's investor day last night was truly explosive. With an 80% gross margin, 75% operating profit margin, and 100% excess cash returned to shareholders, these three figures sent the market into a frenzy. The stock closed up 13.67% at $1528 that day, and pre-market today it spiked to $1635, with a year-to-date gain of 455%. The storage sector joined the collective rally, with Micron, SK Hynix, and Western Digital all surging. But I don’t quite understand this kind of rally. Just a week ago on August 6, SanDisk’s pre-market price plummeted over 10% due to next quarter’s revenue guidance missing expectations. Citi, Wells Fargo, and Jefferies all downgraded their price targets, with Jefferies cutting from $3000 directly down to $1750. Jefferies was quite clear: NAND price increases are narrowing. June quarter ASP rose 33% quarter-over-quarter, but September quarter guidance has dropped to only about 8%. The phase of fastest short-term profit growth may be behind us. The fundamentals haven’t changed, only the news, yet the stock price swung from a crash to a surge. This itself is very telling. I am still short SanDisk, entered at $1520. Honestly, this position is a bit risky, especially since pre-market has already hit $1635. But I set up a mechanism to add positions in batches; if it drops, I’ll adjust my position size, and if it rises, I’ll adjust my price levels. My judgment is that when the U.S. market opens tonight, it may continue to rally—not to help you make money, but to clear out stop-loss orders, crush the shorts, and scare everyone away from shorting. Of course, this is just my personal judgment. I’m using high leverage with a small principal, so converted to low leverage it’s just tens of dollars. This kind of position is actually very risky, so I usually don’t act lightly. But for SanDisk, which was hovering around $1200-$1300 just a day ago and then shot straight to $1700 on one piece of news, it seems too fragile to me. This kind of news-driven violent surge will turn into a panic sell-off as soon as even a little bit of bad news comes out. I previously held long positions in SanDisk when it was around 900, going all in, feeling like I was at a dead end. So now I have a psychological shadow over SanDisk’s volatility. Currently, I remain bearish. If I really can’t hold on, I might hedge my position, although I’m not very good at hedging. During my previous long run, if I hadn’t hedged, I might have already reached my $1000 target. Finally, the same advice: go with the trend, don’t follow me. The bulls are indeed strong now; just now a wave of buying pushed it straight to $1635, which is terrifying. If you don’t have a strong heart, don’t touch SanDisk. The higher the pendulum swings, the harder the impact when it falls back. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点

From the beginning of this year until now, the Hormuz situation has increasingly resembled a war of words. One side claims 100% control, the other says no ship can pass without approval. Trump said the US has 100% control of the Strait of Hormuz, the US military has cleared mines, and the shipping lane is open. Iran immediately fired back, with the Revolutionary Guard Navy commander saying the strait is currently closed and Iran maintains full control. Both sides claim to be in charge, but the actual navigation rules have not changed in any substantive way. The marginal effect of these mutual declarations is diminishing; our ears have already grown calloused from hearing them. WTI $CL rose 10% cumulatively over five trading days, then fell 2.4% yesterday, retreating to $81.25. Brent $BZ is also fluctuating around $87. But despite saying no, their actions are quite honest. The US military just announced the formation of its first multi-domain multinational attack drone task force, Falcon Strike. It’s only been 9 months since the US military established its first dedicated drone strike unit, Scorpion Strike, which first launched attack drones from a warship in December last year and also deployed unmanned systems in the July strike on Iranian port facilities this year. From Scorpion Strike to Falcon Strike, drone capabilities are rapidly evolving. This is not a short-term pressure tactic; it’s preparation for a more enduring military presence. Iran is not backing down either; the Supreme Leader’s advisor warned that if conditions are not met, they will respond by escalating the conflict. Both sides are raising the stakes; the game is escalating, not cooling down. There’s another point worth mentioning. The IEA previously warned that global oil inventories are approaching a critical point. If the strait remains closed, inventories could fall below the minimum level needed to keep the oil transport system running. The market is numb to the war of words but not immune to a real supply disruption. Words can numb, but inventories don’t lie. The strait remains closed, oil prices are fluctuating between 80 and 87, and the market is waiting for a real variable—either an agreement is reached or supply truly gets cut off. When that happens, the consequences could be very severe, impacting global energy. We still hope for peace, as that is the only way to promote our further development. $BTC $ETH $XAU #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级

The data this week is already clear enough. CPI dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. PPI year-on-year decreased from 5.5% to 4.7%, and core PPI dropped from 4.7% to 4.2%. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000. Three signals stacked together: inflation is falling, employment is loosening, and the urgency for a rate hike in September is decreasing. But there is still internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve. Harmak says a rate hike is necessary, arguing that "the current policy is not restrictive enough." Barkin says, "Many believe the current rates are already tight enough." One calls for a hike, the other says no rush; their positions are completely different. Traders don’t have time to listen to their arguments; short-term rate contracts no longer fully price in a rate hike this year, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen across the board, and the S&P 500 has surged to a historic high. The market isn’t listening to their talk—it’s moving ahead. Oil prices are cooperating as well: WTI dropped over 2% to around $81, Brent fell to $87. The Hormuz deadlock hasn’t been resolved yet, but the geopolitical premium is indeed retreating. With oil prices easing, the anchor for inflation expectations is also moving downward. On Thursday, SanDisk surged nearly 14 points, lifting the entire storage sector. The S&P 500 surpassed 7800 for the first time, U.S. stocks are hitting new highs, gold is steady at a high level around 4380, and Bitcoin is still hovering near 63800. Despite the shared narrative of cooling inflation, U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are moving at completely different paces. U.S. stocks are trading on rate cut expectations, gold’s sideways movement at a high level indicates safe-haven funds haven’t left, and Bitcoin’s stagnation shows its pricing logic hasn’t shifted to the macro side yet. The same macro environment, different asset reactions. The market is already moving toward rate cuts; the direction is clear, and the pace depends on each asset’s fundamentals. $BTC $SNDK $XAU #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大

SanDisk soared directly tonight, at one point rising nearly 15 points intraday. It jumped straight from 1427 to 1580. Along with SK Hynix rising 5.6 and Micron up 5.28, the entire storage sector took off together. The reason is that SanDisk dropped a big move at Investor Day. The target is mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth for fiscal years 2028 to 2030, gross margin reaching 80%, operating margin hitting 75%, and a commitment to return all excess cash to shareholders. This basically tells the market that not only can I make money, but I can also share the profits with you. What does an 80% gross margin mean in the chip industry? NVIDIA is roughly at this level. And giving guidance three years out like this shows that management is confident in the long-term logic of AI storage. Elon Musk just said a couple of days ago that AI computing power needs to reach 10 gigawatts, and today SanDisk delivered a three-year roadmap. The AI infrastructure story is shifting from "painting a picture" to "doing the math." SpaceX says AI revenue will surpass all other business by September, SanDisk says 80% gross margin and full cash return to shareholders in three years. One talks about how much can be earned in the future, the other calculates how much can be kept. The S&P 500 also historically broke through 7800 points today, inflation data is cooling, the Fed is arguing but the market is no longer listening. CPI and PPI both confirm inflation is slowing, US Treasury yields are falling across the board, oil prices are dropping, and the geopolitical premium in the Strait of Hormuz is fading. The market is rising, inflation is falling, liquidity expectations are easing, and SanDisk has given such a solid long-term plan, capital is repricing the entire AI infrastructure supply chain. With SanDisk’s surge, SK Hynix and Micron were pushed up together. The AI infrastructure line—from chips to storage to computing power—the entire chain is being repriced. Previously, the storage sector hadn’t kept up with last Friday’s AI rally, but tonight it fully caught up. This kind of rise is indeed a bit intoxicating; I lost control and directly went short with a small position to test the waters. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX #波动雷达：币种异动观察

Inflation data is cooling down, but Federal Reserve officials are still arguing about whether to raise interest rates. The same data, two different interpretations. PPI month-over-month is 0%, expected was 0.2%, CPI has fallen for the second consecutive month, and initial jobless claims rose to 209,000. These three signals combined paint a picture of easing inflation and loosening employment, reducing the urgency of a rate hike in September. But Harker says a rate hike is necessary, arguing that "current policy is not restrictive enough." Barkin says "many believe the current rates are already sufficiently tight." One calls for a hike, the other says no rush, their directions are completely opposite. Traders aren’t listening to them. Short-term rate contracts show the market no longer fully prices in Fed rate hikes this year. The S&P 500 broke through 7800 points for the first time in history. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 30-year new bond issuance yield expected to hit the highest since 2001. Capital is voting with real money. Oil prices are cooperating, dropping more than 3% on Thursday. The Hormuz stalemate continues, but oil prices have started to give back geopolitical premiums. The easing in oil prices directly transmits to inflation expectations, and the entire macro narrative is moving toward easing. Sandisk has currently broken through 1485, pushing upward since the rebound from the low point. Gold is in a consolidation phase, not surging further after CPI confirmed cooling, instead moving sideways at a high level. Bitcoin remains sluggish and has barely followed this round of macro tailwinds. Ethereum is hovering around 1890. Despite the same macro narrative of cooling inflation, the pricing logic of traditional assets and crypto assets has begun to diverge. The S&P 500 is hitting new highs, Sandisk is pushing upward. The direction is clear; the pace depends on their respective fundamentals. Whether Sandisk’s rally can continue depends on the capital expenditure rhythm of AI infrastructure, while Bitcoin’s catch-up rally requires its own catalysts. $BTC $SNDK $XAU #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大

Today, as soon as Musk spoke, the rocket shot straight up $SPCX hit a high of 149.6 today, closing up 9.65% at 146.15. From the low point, it’s risen nearly 40%. I sold my long position in that strategy too early; now I’m really kicking myself. Musk said at the all-hands meeting that AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses next month. He also set a target: AI computing power to reach 10 gigawatts by the end of next year. What does his estimate mean? In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX’s value. SpaceX’s valuation logic has been overturned, shifting from a space company to a space AI computing power company. With the valuation logic changed, the market’s pricing naturally differs. But one thing to mention: Q2 capital expenditure was 18.37 billion, with 15.8 billion invested in AI infrastructure, while revenue was only 7.8 billion. The burn rate is 2.35 times the revenue. The pie is big, and the cash burn is fierce. The storage sector also surged. SK Hynix rose over 9%, SanDisk up 5.76%, Micron nearly 5%. Computing power expansion requires chips, storage, and optical communication; the entire industry chain is benefiting. SanDisk also had an Investor Day today; the market is waiting for management to provide an AI storage roadmap. This AI infrastructure line—from chips to storage to computing power—the entire chain is being repriced. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $XAU #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%

This round of AI infrastructure earnings reports is getting more and more exciting the more I look. Lumentum, CoreWeave, and Advanced Micro Devices all saw revenue growth exceeding 90%, and Nebius was even more extreme, with Q2 revenue surging 454%. Logically, with such results, shouldn't the stock prices take off? But the K-line just doesn't follow the usual pattern. Nebius's single-quarter capital expenditure reached $5.7 billion, Coherent's performance exceeded expectations and guidance was good, yet after hours it still dropped 8%. This is very interesting. It's not that AI lacks demand, but the market is starting to get serious. Previously, as long as you talked about AI and fast revenue growth, investors were willing to buy; now just "burning money to scale up" is not enough, everyone is chasing questions: With so much investment, where are the profits? When will the cash flow return? Therefore, the upcoming Applied Materials earnings report is very critical. They sell semiconductor equipment and are positioned further upstream in the AI industry chain. If demand for advanced logic, HBM, and advanced packaging continues strong, it means this AI expansion is still going deeper; but if orders or guidance falter even slightly, the high valuation could be hit immediately. In the current AI market, growth is just the entry ticket; turning growth into profit is the real skill. The next baton depends on whether Applied Materials can catch it. $AMAT $CSCO $NBIS $COHR #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

After the CPI release, there was neither the expected surge nor a sharp drop. Last night, the CPI year-on-year fell to 3.4%, and the core CPI dropped to 2.5%, all in line with expectations. After the data was published, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September immediately rose to 59.9%. This indicates that the market has temporarily breathed a sigh of relief but has not completely let down its guard. BTC continues to fluctuate, and ETH has not shown a significant follow-up rally. Gold XAU remains sideways at a high level, short-term US Treasury yields have fallen back, but the fiscal deficit and term premium still support long-term rates. Compared to the CPI, I would say OKB has been the most eye-catching coin these past few days, clearly showing an independent trend and quietly pulling up. However, the strength of the platform coin cannot be entirely attributed to the CPI; it seems more like after the easing of macro pressure, funds are starting to seek assets with their own narratives. The current logic is very clear: the cooling CPI reduces the necessity for the Fed to raise rates immediately; but one data point meeting expectations is not enough to completely rewrite the policy path. Therefore, the main focus now is tonight's PPI, which is currently the last verification point. If producer inflation continues to cool, the expectation of a pause in rate hikes may further increase; if the PPI is hotter than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen again, and risk assets will come under pressure once more. The CPI only allowed the market to catch its breath; the PPI will decide whether that breath can continue. $BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温