After last week's CPI short position was stopped out, I'm now actually hesitant to short BTC directly. The market is about to face the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and recent inflation data has clearly raised expectations for a rate hike. The market now highly anticipates a 25 basis point increase. But here's the problem: everyone already knows the negative news. BTC surged to 79,569 before falling back, now around 77,800. The 1-hour BOLL middle band is at 78,300, with obvious resistance near 79,000 above and short-term support near 77,300 below. The previous low is at 76,323. My current thought is simple: I won't bet on "rate hike = BTC must fall." If it rebounds tonight but can't hold above 78,300, bears have room to push lower; if it climbs back above, I won't short just based on rate hike expectations. Because the market has already taught me once — the logic can be right, but the position size and entry point can still be wrong. This time, I'd rather earn less than risk my position to prove my judgment. The harshest part of the market is: bad news everyone knows may not actually be bad news. What really matters tomorrow might not be "whether rates hike or not," but how BTC moves after the hike. $BTC $ETH

This position of ETH is a bit troubling for me. Looking at the market, it fell back from around 2526 yesterday, hitting a low of 2460, then quickly pulled back to around 2480. In terms of pattern, it does have a bit of a W-bottom feel. A low point on the left, then retesting support on the right without breaking through directly, many people's first reaction is: "Is it about to reverse?" But I'm not that excited right now. The reason is simple—volume. Without obvious volume supporting the W-bottom, I prefer to see it as a "potential bottom structure" rather than directly defining it as a reversal. I've been burned by this before. Seeing a beautiful pattern, your mind starts calculating target levels, but once you enter the market, it tells you: Brother, a pattern is just a pattern. What really drives the market is capital. So for now, I will observe ETH: Whether the support around 2460 can continue to hold; Whether the resistance between 2500-2525 can be broken through with volume. If the breakout has volume, I will consider following. If it rallies without volume, I'd rather miss out than be fooled again by a "seemingly beautiful" pattern. After trading for a long time, I've found the hardest part is not finding opportunities. It's resisting opening a position when you see an opportunity. What do you think? Is this W-bottom on ETH valid? Or just another bull trap? $ETH

Weekend BTC really can mess with people's mindset. Just now, this 15-minute candlestick had a volatility of over 200 points, directly pulling out a long wick. Many people's first reaction might be: Did someone dump again? But I think the thing to be most cautious about in weekend markets is not the direction, but liquidity. From Monday to Friday, with US market funds present and sufficient market depth, many fluctuations can still be absorbed. But weekends are different. When the order book is thin, it doesn't take much capital to instantly push the price to a certain level and then quickly pull it back. What is most likely to happen in this kind of market? Short sellers just enter, then it rebounds; Long buyers just get on board, then get dumped down again. I've suffered this kind of loss before, always thinking "as long as the direction is right, it's fine." Later I realized there's something even more important than direction in trading: When you enter, does the market have enough liquidity to support your judgment? So now when I see these weekend spikes, I don't chase immediately. I first see if it's accumulation or just pure liquidity stop-hunting. The market will never tell you the answer in advance. Those who survive don't necessarily get it right every time, but know when to slow down. Everyone control your positions over the weekend, don't let one candlestick ruin your weekend mood 😂 $BTC $ETH

Woke up and saw that $BTC played me again. Last night, CPI was higher than expected. I opened a short at 76928, thinking that since the data was hawkish, BTC dropping a bit first shouldn't be a big problem. But instead, the price dropped to a low of 75866, then directly surged to 79888, and my short position almost started to struggle again. Luckily I stopped the loss this time, otherwise I'd probably be studying "why I didn't exit earlier" again 😂 What's even more interesting is that after surging to 79888, it didn't hold, and now it's slowly falling back to around 77000, basically returning to my opening range. This makes me increasingly feel that trading BTC can't just rely on news to judge direction. News tells the logic, but price tells what the market truly chooses. Last night CPI was hawkish, yet BTC first surged sharply, indicating short-term funds had no intention of following the script obediently. Now the price is back near 77000, so I'll just wait and see. If it holds, it might still be a consolidation; if it really breaks below 76000, then the bears' space will truly open up. The biggest takeaway this time isn't whether I made money or not, but that I finally started to learn: cut losses when wrong, don't argue with the market. Being played once isn't scary; what's really losing is stubbornly holding on even when you know you're wrong.

$BTC long position hasn't closed yet. Yesterday I placed a long at 77668, just got filled, now hovering around 78600. The most frustrating part is, the take profit at 79000 missed by just a few points, it stubbornly didn't trigger 😂 But now I'm actually not in a hurry to move. The support around 77500 is currently holding, and the price has climbed back above 78500. However, there's a detail here: the volume and strength of the rebound aren't particularly strong. So my current thought is simple: First, see if 79000 can truly hold. If it can't hold, this looks more like a correction after a drop rather than a reversal. If it really breaks below 77500 again, I won't stubbornly hold this position; I'll wait for the next support. The biggest fear in trading isn't being wrong, but fighting the market when you're wrong. Whether this trade can reach 79,000, I'll leave it to the market.