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August 17–23 Global Macro Guidance: The data has already provided the answer. The shift from "fighting inflation" to "stall prevention" in the U.S. economy needs to be verified this week, with the July meeting minutes focusing on the Fed's future expectations. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks, remaining hidden key risks! This week's macro environment is not optimistic. Market anchors are mainly energy and inflation expectations, while the US economy has moved from anti-inflation expectations to the dangerous edge of stalling. If energy expectations rebound, be cautious of rising stagflation expectations. The biggest macro change this week is shifting from macro data to policy interpretation and verification. Last week, our macro data gave three answers: Has inflation spiraled out of control again? Currently no. Has US demand weakened? Yes, and significantly higher than market expectations. Is the soft landing expectation true? Short-term soft landing expectations shaken. This week's data interpretation and verification require three answers: How hawkish are the Fed minutes in July? Is the Fed focused on caution about economic slowdown? What is the Fed's view on inflation and economic stall risks? Is the U.S. consumer economy experiencing a short-term slowdown, or is systemic risk expanding? Will crude oil and Japan recreate overall inflation or even US stagflation expectations, as well as liquidity risks!? 1. Fed meeting minutes: How hawkish was July? What is the focus of the eagle? Is there an interpretation of employment risks? Have you anticipated the risk of economic slowdown in advance? There were no fixed Fed officials to speak this week, and Wash had no speaking agenda, meaning the market couldn't get Fed officials in time for last week's data