Now everyone must have given up on $ONE, right? Moving to the Ethereum chain is just euthanasia after the complete failure of the L1 economy. 1. In August, a cross-shard vulnerability was exploited to forge about 3 trillion ONE (which is 200 times the circulating supply). The team had to roll back more than 140,000 blocks, completely destroying the chain's trust foundation. This is another breach of user trust following the 2022 Horizon cross-chain bridge hack by North Korean hackers who stole nearly $100 million. 2. TVL crashed from a peak of $1 billion to $150,000, basically zero; on-chain daily fee revenue is negligible. This time, shutting down the old chain and fully migrating to Ethereum is just a more comfortable way to give up. The fundamentals are dead, and the team will no longer care. On-chain economic activity is dead, market cap has shrunk to the tens of millions of dollars level, validators shut down nodes and took $1.37 million severance pools to become governors. Everyone can disperse, don’t hold any hope.

$ONDO is one of the few real players in RWA: 1. Yesterday, it just launched Ondo Intelligent Portfolios with BlackRock, and surged 30%, which is a solid real catalyst. Non-US investors can directly buy the three model portfolios BLKHI/BLKDIG/BLKGRW, effectively gaining a major institutional distribution channel, not just a co-branding gimmick. 2. The total tokenized government bond market size is $15 billion, with Ondo alone accounting for about $2.7 billion, ranking second in the entire sector. USDY and OUSG are tokenized US Treasury products with real yields, among the few RWAs that are truly operational. 3. On-chain funds are also increasing positions, with 75 whale wallets on-chain net inflow of $23.7 million. Note that the total inflow amount is $52 million, outflow is $28 million, meaning the buying whales are nearly equal in volume to the selling whales. Derivatives saw a weekly net outflow of $34 million; spot is accumulating while futures are withdrawing, showing structural differentiation, which is a very healthy ecosystem. ONDO is one of the most fundamentally solid RWAs, backed by institutions and accumulated by whales, suitable as a portfolio allocation.

The Solana Foundation just announced yesterday that it hired Binance's former global CMO as Chief Strategy Officer, and today it surged! $SOL is one of the strongest fundamental themes in this cycle in my opinion, so it has always been one of my main positions for bottom-fishing. The real drivers are the Alpenglow structural upgrade + continuous inflow of institutional funds into ETFs. The spot SOL ETF has seen net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, with cumulative AUM surpassing $1.4 billion, indicating ongoing institutional accumulation. Moreover, after Solana partnered with Allfunds, which manages €1.9 trillion, to promote tokenized funds in the past two months, tokenized stocks and ETFs of $ONDO are now tradable on Solana — it is the underlying chain for this new track.

Elon Musk's X has officially announced embedding exchanges directly into the timeline, reviving the $DOGE payment narrative. 1. The X platform announced cooperation with exchanges like Gemini, Kraken, and Coinbase, allowing users to trade crypto assets directly within the timeline. The closer to X Pay, the more special DOGE's position becomes — it has always been the tipping coin Musk champions. 2. Futures open interest reached $1.57 billion, the highest since late August, with a long-short ratio of 2.3 — leveraged funds are re-entering, amplifying short-term volatility, so hold steady. 3. Data shows that on the big drop day, spot ETFs still saw net inflows in the millions of dollars, indicating institutions aren't too afraid of drawdowns. Of course, X trading is a slow-moving variable and a positive that took several twists, so don't expect a full rally in a week. Just hold your spot assets steady.

$HYPE dropped instead of rising after listing on the neighboring spot market yesterday. Let me explain: 1. It’s not that it didn’t rise; it actually rose in advance: the news of the spot listing was announced early, and the money that needed to come in was already in at the time of the announcement. The drop after the spot listing is a classic case of good news being priced in, so no need to panic. 2. Hyperliquid’s open interest accounts for more than half of the entire perp DEX market, with a 30-day perp volume of 220 billion and an annualized revenue of $700 million — fundamentally, it’s still the strongest player in the field, bar none. 3. Moreover, the moat is really high: HIP-3’s ten deployment parties have 97.8% of the volume taken by the top one, while the non-top parties’ lifetime revenue combined is only around $700,000, showing highly concentrated dividends. The overall market uptrend is still ongoing, and my target is 102.

The positive news for $OKB landed today: the spot fee rates in the EEA region have been cut nearly in half from 0.20/0.35 to 0.10/0.20 starting today. This move ties retail investors and OKB even closer together. With trading costs lowered, retention and demand for holding coins will both be directed towards OKB. This is the most solid logic behind platform tokens. The NYSE parent company ICE's joint venture plans to launch tokenized US stocks in the second half of the year. The fee reduction in Europe perfectly aligns with the MiCA expansion pace, with compliance licenses coming one after another. I believe this recent pullback is a buildup rather than a peak. The market may not immediately react at the start of the new fee rates, so be patient.

$BTC has risen so much, yet Coinbase's premium index has been negative for 20 consecutive days, indicating that large-scale buyers in the US haven't entered the market yet? Not just the past 20 days, but most of this year has been negative. This means the rally above 80,000 is absent of US spot funds and is driven by offshore and derivatives. The good news is leverage is being cleared: open interest dropped 10% yesterday, and 90% of liquidations were longs — it's the leveraged traders being cleaned out, not spot holders running away, so this kind of decline is actually healthy. USDC issuance increased by 786 million in one day, with a net increase of 1.95 billion over the week; stablecoin liquidity is still flowing into the pool. The Fear & Greed Index is 71, in the greed zone, sentiment is still alive. Today is futures expiration day, so let's wait and see. The upward trend is still intact. For those without positions, it's recommended to build up to 30% exposure. I see this upward trend reaching 90,000.

Last night Micron $MU's earnings report sent the storage sector $FIL soaring, and today in the crypto world, large Deribit options are settling, brothers keep a close watch. #EarningsObserver: Costco's performance exceeded expectations, Micron takes over 1. Micron's earnings last night: revenue more than tripled year-over-year, next quarter guidance directly at the $50 billion level, CEO said shortages will last until after 2027. After-hours, the storage chain collectively took off, Western Digital and SanDisk rose up to 10%. Today FIL's spirit is over in the US stock market. 2. The macro issue remains a thorn: the 10-year US Treasury yield hit around 5.2%, the highest since 2007, four Fed officials all hawkish, October rate hike probability around 67%. The summit ended, the trade truce only extended for two months, stable but no reconciliation, risk assets at best neutral to slightly warm. 3. Deribit's $BTC quarterly options expire today, with a notional value over $15 billion, max pain at 75-76k, after expiration hedging flows disappear, afternoon volatility will increase. On expiration day, no heavy new positions are opened, that's discipline.

The floor test for $DOGE has begun, and it just stepped right on the 200-day moving average. As long as it doesn't break below, there's always a chance to bounce back: 1. Today $DOGE dropped 8%, ranking near the bottom among meme coins. The 200-day moving average is at 0.092. We'll see if it effectively breaks below it. 2. Payment scenarios are landing: House of Doge announced on the 23rd that 8 new merchants officially accept DOGE settlements, indicating growth in real-world applications. 3. The current pullback is still normal. As long as it doesn't break below, it can be understood as clearing out early leveraged traders; once cleaned out, the next wave can come. But be careful! If the 200-day moving average is broken with high volume, this coin will turn bearish immediately. Don't hold on stubbornly.

$HYPE went spot on the neighboring exchange today, so there was a sudden pull this afternoon, but the positive news quickly caused a drop back: 1. HYPE is indeed a rare good project, otherwise the neighboring $BNB wouldn't concede to list HYPE spot but would continue to strongly support its own $ASTER. Also, on-chain whales are voting with their feet; today a whale liquidated 17,000 ETH to exchange for 205,000 HYPE, which is more convincing than just talk. 2. The team announced yesterday that they will airdrop subsidies to HyperEVM users, which is another source of positive sentiment. The circulating supply is already tight, so the subsidy effectively adds chips for existing holders. 3. Technically, today's pullback is a normal correction after a new high; the current uptrend remains intact with a target of 105. But everyone should be careful not to get too carried away, control your position size, and make sure you can sleep at night. Otherwise, you'll always worry about a sudden correction one day.