♾️ BlockInfinity 8/11 California Tuesday: On the eve of CPI, crypto's "risk appetite + safe haven" both fail, don't blindly bet on direction within the range 🌐 Macro The biggest variable this week = US July CPI (released Wednesday). Consensus: overall YoY 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core 2.5% (previous 2.6%). Two scenarios — ① Data hotter → stagflation concerns, US stocks sell off, Fed Chair Waller may lean toward rate hikes; ② <3% → risk appetite returns, unwind of rate hike pricing for the year. Employment "bad news = good news," but CPI "bad news is bad news." Fed pricing ~28bp hike in December, about 50/50 chance for September. Timiraos: Increasing number of FOMC members focus on CPI to decide "whether further hikes are needed"; new Chair Waller downplays "data-dependent" framework, but old framework still dominates. 🌍 International Situation Strait of Hormuz remains closed: Iran's Supreme National Security Council reiterates "US won't reopen without conditions" (demanding end to war + unfreeze funds), US continues "maximum pressure" on Iran. Hedge signals: Pakistan hints US-Iran close to deal → oil prices give back early gains; explosion at Libya's Zawiya refinery. US military intelligence judges Iran's strategic focus shifted from nuclear program to the strait, military control assessed as "long, deadly, extremely costly, no guaranteed victory" → geopolitical premium unlikely to retreat. 🛢️ WTI $83.20 (+1.3%, retreated from intraday +5% high); 🥇Gold $4,370 (pulled back from two-month high), Silver $64.64 (−1.9%), Copper $6.685 (+0.2%). 📈 Technicals (multi-timeframe) 🔴 $BTC $63,289 (−0.95%): Daily MACD main line death cross (DIF95<DEA101 histogram −12) turns bearish, breaks below MA20(64,169), RSI14 46; 4H RSI 35, 1H RSI 32 deeply oversold, 1H Bollinger Band width only 1.09% ⚠️ extreme compression signals imminent breakout. Range 62,227–66,397 holding lower boundary. 🔴 #ETH $1,864 (−0.5%): structurally weakest leg, daily MACD bearish, hugging MA50/EMA50, 4H/1H RSI 33–36 oversold, range 1,820–1,982 edges bearish. 🟡 #SOL $75.1 (−0.9%): relatively most resilient, daily still above MA20(74.45), bullish alignment RSI 49; 1H RSI 32 short-term oversold. 🔬 Derivatives / Volume 🔴 24h liquidations = long bloodbath: BTC $55.4M (long $50.0M / short $5.4M ≈ 9:1), ETH $32.4M (long $26.5M), SOL $4.5M (long $4.2M) — this round's selloff = long squeeze. 🟡 Funding rates mildly positive (BTC +0.010% / ETH +0.007%, not extreme); BTC OI $46.4B, 24h only +0.16% (no deleveraging, shorts patching while fighting). 🟡 Spot discount −0.11% / −$71 (no buy orders in US session spot); Fear & Greed Index 29 (fear); BTC DVOL 35.98 (implied vol suppressed to low). 📈 US Stocks (intraday, ~1h before close) 🔴 Nasdaq weak QQQ 717.9 (−0.7%); AI capex leaders down ORCL −4.3% / GOOGL −3.0% 🟢 CRCL +7.4% standout; TSLA +0.7%, META +1.3% 🟡 Storage split: SNDK +1.8% / SKHYNIX +2.2% / MU −2.2%; INTC −1.6% ₿ BTC Core Judgment Daily death cross appears, multi-timeframe bearish alignment, but price still trapped in range (62.2–66.4K), no breakout; 4H/1H RSI deeply oversold + longs just bloodied $50M. Meaning = "weak but oversold." Without trend confirmation, chasing shorts = fueling short squeeze, chasing longs = reckless before CPI binary event. 🎯 Key levels: break above 65.8–66.9K turns bullish, break below 62–63K opens next leg down; between is noise. ⚖️ Comprehensive Judgment Crypto's "risk appetite" and "safe haven" both fail to function: gold hits two-month high, oil inflation premium reignites, BTC falls with stocks instead of rising — market prices Middle East/oil as "rate hike" not "safe haven." Before Wednesday's CPI, all directions are binary bets: hotter suppresses risk assets, cooler sparks rebound. Current optimal = low exposure awaiting data, avoid heavy directional bets near 65K magnet + event. 🎯 Today's Trading View (for reference only, not personal positions) • BTC: mid-range (63–64K) no chasing; break and hold above 65.8K = light long test, stop loss 64.8K; close below 62K = bearish, stop loss 63.2K. ATR daily ~$1,254, stop loss not tighter than this. • ETH: weakest leg, rebound 1,900–1,940 resistance for light short, stop loss 1,965; break below 1,820 accelerates. • General discipline: control position before CPI = preferred; deeply oversold no naked short (fuel for squeeze), no naked long without confirmation, wait for fake breakout to be validated. ⚠️ Risk Events 📅 Wednesday: US July CPI (most important) + EIA crude inventory + OPEC/IEA monthly report + Tencent Q2 earnings 📅 Thursday: US July PPI + initial jobless claims + JD.com earnings 🔴 Sudden risks: Hormuz talks repeated, Middle East refinery/shipping disruptions, US-Iran "deal vs maximum pressure" headline shifts → oil and inflation expectations volatile both ways. ⚠️ Not investment advice, DYOR

Here's a quick update reflecting the altcoin narrative, let's watch: CME is launching GPU computing power futures in October, essentially turning "how much it costs to rent an H100 for an hour" into a standardized contract tradable on Wall Street. Traditional finance is starting to price computing power, and the ones who should be paying attention the most are DePIN and decentralized computing power tokens—they've been telling the story for two years that "computing power is the new oil," and now oil has futures. It might not pump immediately in the short term, but the narrative being validated by the mainstream is the essential nourishment these tokens need for the mid to long term. Beyond $BTC, the real beta in this cycle might be hidden in these long-neglected computing power narratives. Let's watch and first list them out, don't wait to chase after they pump.

Note a quick update that is easy to be overlooked but has long-term implications for $BTC, watch closely: Oracle announced tonight a partnership with quantum computing company Quantinum to bring quantum capabilities to the cloud. Every time a major player enters quantum computing, someone in the crypto space shouts "Quantum is going to crack Bitcoin private keys." To pour cold water first: current quantum machines are still several orders of magnitude away from threatening the signature algorithms used by Bitcoin; this is a matter on a decade scale, not tomorrow. But what’s worth noting is the trend—major companies are genuinely pushing forward commercialization. When that day really comes, Bitcoin can upgrade to quantum-resistant signatures through a soft fork; panic is unnecessary, but vigilance is required. Those who understand know: long-term risks must be monitored, but don’t let anyone use this as an excuse to dump the market today.

Here's a thermometer for the primary market, let's watch: former OpenAI Chief Product Officer Kevin Weil has launched an AI research startup, immediately asking for a valuation of at least $750 million — the company barely has a product. This is not an isolated case; it's the norm in this round of AI startups: a big name, a sexy direction, and a valuation that already puts them halfway to unicorn status. Comparing this to our crypto space, doesn't it resemble those projects that haven't even finished their whitepapers but can start trading just based on the founder's title? The frenzy of hot money in the primary market often signals that risk appetite is still high. $BTC being so sluggish right now precisely indicates that this wave of hot money hasn't flowed into crypto. Let's watch; where the money goes, that's where the story is.

A real footnote on AI capital expenditure, let's watch: Oracle is reported to be laying off employees this month, possibly in double-digit percentages. Don't just see it as bad news—the unified stance of these big companies is to cut people and costs in old businesses while aggressively pouring budgets into AI and computing infrastructure. The total money hasn't increased; it's just been relocated overall. For those of us watching $BTC and the AI narrative, the subtext is clear: the enthusiasm of industrial capital is real, but it is "stock reshuffling," not "incremental liquidity injection." Those who understand know that directly translating big companies' AI investments into macro liquidity easing is the easiest narrative trap to fall into this round.

Record a narrative repeatedly shouting "Wolf is coming," let's see: The Middle East line has been tense for a while, tonight a Libyan refinery was hit by a drone again—but oil prices didn't really collapse, EIA simply said the threat to the Mandeb Strait did not cause an actual supply disruption. The market's reaction to geopolitical conflicts is becoming dulled: the first time a pinprick, the fifth time numbness. The inspiration for crypto is, don't chase the market by using "war has started" as a catalyst anymore; what really drives prices is hard facts like "supply is truly cut off," not the explosions in the news. Save your bullets, don't be led by clickbait.

Here's the most contradictory phenomenon recently: AI stocks keep rising, precious metals are also soaring, logically either risk-on or safe-haven assets should be able to boost crypto—but $BTC is falling along, not rising, clearly sluggish. This shows that the current market doesn't regard crypto as a "safe-haven asset" nor as a "high beta tech stock"; it's locked alone in a "waiting for its own catalyst" dark room. It can't get into others' parties. At times like this, grand narratives are useless; just patiently wait for crypto's own fuse—whether it's ETFs, regulation, or post-halving liquidity. Let's see how it goes.

A quick piece of news that's easy to overlook, let's watch: Meta has made Threads a native VR app and moved it into Quest. Don't underestimate this move of "packing social into the headset"—it's betting on where the next generation of content entry points will be. The same applies in the crypto context: narrative money always flows first to the "entry-level" stuff, not to the flashier features; whoever is closest to the user's attention gets priced first. As for whether headset social will succeed this time, let's wait and see—Meta has already been burning money on it for years. Do you still believe in the VR line?

Here's a quick AI-side update to note: Elon Musk's xAI launched a chatbot called Grok Bot tonight, initially opening testing to high-subscriber users like SuperGrok and Cursor. On the surface, it's just a product iteration, but narratively it fills a puzzle piece—the AI entry point battle has shifted from "whose model is stronger" to "who can capture users' everyday scenarios." The analogy to crypto is simple: those who truly benefit from AI dividends are never the coins shouting "AI+blockchain" slogans, but the small group with real calls and real payment scenarios. The rest, those who understand, understand. Do you have any "riding the AI wave but unclear on its use" holdings in your portfolio?

Here's a narrative from the industry side, let's watch it unfold: The storage concept is collectively recovering in the US stock market tonight, with SK Hynix and SanDisk both rising. The story of this memory cycle is actually quite straightforward—AI has pulled HBM and high-end DRAM from being "cyclical products" to "essential goods," with prices returning to 2007 levels. But the smoother the story goes, the more you have to watch out for the first bearish candle signaling a reversal in the capital expenditure narrative. I agree with the fundamentals, but I'm cautious about the timing. For knockoffs trying to ride this trend, first check if they have real orders; don't pay for PPT hype, those who understand will get it.