Inflation data across upstream and downstream sectors have cooled across the board, with PPI and CPI weakening simultaneously alongside softening employment. The Federal Reserve's constraints on raising interest rates in September have basically been lifted, ushering in a sustained environment of valuation increases for risk assets. It is entirely logical that the S&P 500 has consecutively broken through integer thresholds to reach new highs within just seven days. Citigroup has raised its overall earnings forecast for U.S. stocks, setting a year-end target of 8100, implying that this round of gains has not yet fully priced in all positive factors. The earnings realization in the AI industry chain and storage sectors can continue to push the broader market upward and expand its space. Looking back at the previous phase when SanDisk $SNDK fell to 980 and $SPCX dipped to 104, it was precisely a panic window period when the market worried about persistently high inflation, ongoing Fed tightening, and weak demand in the storage industry. Now that interest rate risks have eased and the market has opened up upward space, the storage stocks that were mistakenly sold off earlier have strong valuation recovery momentum. The initial reluctance to enter the market and bottom-fish was essentially driven by short-term market pessimism. Now, with the market hitting new highs and looking back, those low points were actually rare opportunities for positioning. For subsequent operations, there is no need to dwell on missing out on the rally. The S&P should be viewed mainly bullishly in line with the trend, waiting for minor intraday pullbacks to position in heavyweight and AI storage stocks, seizing the second wave of the rally brought by earnings upgrades. #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温

#CPI and PPI Cooling Down Simultaneously, Interest Rate Hike Divergence Widens Current inflation is only slowing down; core CPI at 2.5% remains above the 2% target. Hawkish Federal Reserve officials have not abandoned the rate hike stance. The market is currently overbetting on a pause in rate hikes in September. If the central bank's annual meeting speech turns hawkish, rate hike expectations will quickly rebound, directly hitting three types of assets. On-chain BTC miners and whales continue transferring to exchanges to sell, and this selling pressure has not disappeared. Previously, BTC spot ETFs experienced a single-day net outflow of funds, with insufficient buying momentum. Heavy selling pressure above 64,000 makes it difficult to break previous highs, likely leading to a pullback after positive news is fully priced in. Gold is currently at a high level, but long-term supply pressure from U.S. Treasuries remains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still has potential to rise to 4.8%, which will continue to suppress gold's gains, likely causing short-term volatility and weakness. In terms of operations, avoid opening long positions. Light short positions can be tried if BTC rebounds above 63,800. For gold, short positions can be set above 4,370 with strict position control to avoid sudden volatility caused by Federal Reserve officials' speeches. $BTC $ETH $XAU

# July CPI Meets Expectations, Will There Be a Rate Hike in September? A Brief Discussion After CPI Release: The Fed's September Decision Is Still Unsettled July CPI fully matched market consensus with no unexpected upward shock. Both overall and core inflation showed a slight year-on-year decline, with falling energy prices pulling the overall reading in a positive direction. However, beneath the surface data lies a structural stubbornness: housing alone accounted for two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase. Rent and housing-related inflation remain highly sticky, representing the "last mile" resistance of inflation. Looking at the nonfarm payroll and CPI reports together, the situation becomes very delicate. On one hand, employment is cooling down, with July nonfarm payrolls showing negative growth and previous months’ employment data revised downward; on the other hand, although inflation has eased, the 2.5% core CPI is still some distance from the Fed’s 2% target and has not completely escaped risk. Thus, the Fed is caught in a classic dilemma: Employment cooling provides a reason to pause rate hikes; however, inflation has not met the target, so it cannot directly pivot to easing. Many traders might mistakenly think: CPI meets expectations and nonfarm payrolls are poor, so there will definitely be no rate hike in September. But the real interest rate market does not give a one-sided conclusion. After the CPI release, the probability of a September hike has decreased but has not dropped to zero. This indicates institutional investors see more clearly: a single qualified monthly data point is not enough to give the Fed full confidence. We cannot directly conclude "no rate hike in September" for two main reasons. First, housing inflation is a lagging indicator. The main drag on current CPI is housing costs. Market rents have actually started to ease, but it takes time to gradually transmit into CPI statistics. As long as housing inflation remains high and stagnant, core inflation will struggle to quickly approach 2%. Until the structural inflation root cause is resolved, hawkish Fed members will still have grounds to maintain a tough stance. Second, July CPI is just a monthly report. Between now and the September FOMC meeting, there will be a series of key data releases including August PPI, August nonfarm payrolls, and August CPI. Passing July does not mean subsequent months won’t rebound. The Fed will not lock in policy based on a single month’s data; it looks at trends, not just one month’s result. We can now outline three realistic scenarios: Scenario 1: Maintain rates in September (relatively highest probability) Conditions: No rebound in subsequent PPI and August CPI, employment continues to weaken moderately, no signs of overheating. Logic: Employment has signaled cooling, inflation has not worsened. The Fed chooses to wait and see, seeking more data to confirm the trend. Neither tightening further nor cutting rates immediately. This is a neutral stance, neither hawkish nor dovish. Asset impact: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weaken slightly, favorable environment for U.S. growth stocks, BTC, and ETH. Scenario 2: 25bp rate hike in September (still possible, not completely ruled out) Conditions: PPI rebounds, August core CPI rises again, service inflation heats up. Logic: Even if employment weakens, if inflation rebounds, the "preemptive rate hike" option remains on the table. The Fed’s primary mission is to bring inflation back to 2%. It can tolerate moderate employment cooling but cannot tolerate inflation repeatedly rebounding. Asset impact: Dollar and Treasury yields spike, global risk assets face pressure, triggering a round of valuation corrections. Scenario 3: No rate hike in September but hawkish signaling This scenario is often overlooked by retail investors: no rate hike, but the Fed’s communication is tough, clearly signaling "no victory yet, further hikes are not ruled out." In other words, "no tightening action, but verbally maintaining pressure." Under this environment, the market is unlikely to enter a smooth bull run and will likely experience repeated volatility. Key reminder for ordinary traders: Do not interpret "CPI meets expectations" as a strong bullish signal. "Meeting expectations" only means no new negative surprises, not a strong positive. It removes the worst-case black swan but does not open the door to easing. The macro logic is now very clear: employment slowdown only gives the Fed a reason "not to hike"; sustained inflation steadily approaching 2% is the real prerequisite for risk assets to strengthen. July data is just the first hurdle; the real test lies ahead with PPI and the August data series. Before the September meeting, the macro uncertainty window remains open, and asset volatility is unlikely to end immediately. It is not suitable to heavily bet on a one-sided direction.

#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The non-farm payrolls released unexpectedly weak data, showing negative employment growth in July, combined with significant downward revisions in the previous two months, clearly signaling a weakening labor force. Strangely, the interest rate market has not directly ruled out the end of rate hikes; the probability of maintaining rates or hiking in September is almost evenly split. The core logic behind this: The Federal Reserve is currently prioritizing inflation. Even if employment weakens, if inflation remains high, the option to raise rates is still on the table. Tonight's July CPI is the most important short-term catalyst. Focus on core CPI: ✅ Inflation continues to decline: Weak employment combined with cooling inflation brings back easing expectations, benefiting overall risk assets. ⚠️ Inflation stronger than expected: Even if employment is weak, the market will reprice the risk of rate hikes, pushing up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, causing pressure and pullbacks on U.S. stocks, BTC, and ETH. Everyone must avoid habitual thinking and not simply be bullish just because of weak non-farm data. Weak employment does not immediately mean liquidity will ease; Weak employment plus stubborn inflation is actually a nightmare for risk assets. Before the CPI release, the market will most likely remain volatile and cautious; do not prematurely bet on a one-sided market.

$SNDK Observation Notes: ✅ Q4 current performance exceeded expectations: revenue, EPS, gross margin, data center business, long-term orders, and the 14 billion buyback are all positive factors. ⚠️ Negative point: next quarter guidance falls short of the market's high expectations, becoming the biggest concern. Three core unresolved issues (awaiting August 13 Investor Day): 1. Weak guidance: is it financial conservatism or a slowdown in downstream demand rhythm? ​ 2. Industry cycle: can the AI long-term contract model weaken NAND cyclicality, maintain high gross margins, and the supply pressure from peer capacity expansion? ​ 3. Capital planning: execution pace of the 14 billion buyback, how funds are allocated (buyback vs. capacity expansion). Key market levels: strong resistance at 1278.85; support range 1240-1245. Trading strategy: before the event materializes, it will likely maintain a high-level oscillation pattern; avoid one-sided directional bets. The statements at Investor Day will be the catalyst to break the oscillation pattern. #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解

The market has just started to recover, but internal capital divergence has already appeared. BTC spot ETF has begun to see capital outflows, while ETH still retains slight inflow resilience. The core battle now no longer revolves around whether it is a cyclical bottom. The two truly critical checkpoints are: First, whether institutional buying from ETFs can absorb the continuous selling pressure delivered to exchanges by whales and miners; Second, the upcoming CPI inflation data, which will determine macro risk appetite. Whales and miners are cashing out chips during the rebound window, which is a real existing selling pressure; ETFs represent external incremental fresh capital. Whether the fresh capital can outweigh the selling pressure, combined with whether the macro environment is favorable, will decide if this round of rebound can go far. Looking at a single indicator alone can easily mislead. ETF inflows do not necessarily mean the market will take off, and whale selling does not immediately imply a crash. Under the battle of these two forces, the short-term pattern will most likely remain volatile, waiting for a decisive signal to emerge. #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在

Today I am simultaneously watching three assets: $ETH, $DOS, and $SNDK. Their respective trends are clearly diverging, so I’m simply recording my trading plan. ETH has formed a short-term deep V pattern, reaching a high of 1937.91, then dropping sharply to a low of 1867.05. It has now rebounded back to around 1887. From the candlestick structure, after a sharp drop, there is a corrective rebound, but the rebound’s volume hasn’t fully caught up, indicating a technical pullback after the decline rather than a confirmed reversal. I’m looking to see if I can buy on a pullback in the 1872-1875 range, with a stop loss set just below the 1866 low; the first take profit target is 1905, the second resistance zone is 1925-1930. If it fails to break the previous high of 1937.91 again, I will take profits in batches and exit. Conversely, if it breaks below the 1867 low directly, I will abandon the long idea and open shorts following the trend, targeting around 1840. DOS, this altcoin, is extremely volatile. It surged violently from 0.3242 to a high of 0.5391, then quickly pulled back, currently priced at 0.4578. As a MEME/altcoin, after a big rally, there is heavy selling pressure from profit-taking. Altcoins must never be chased at highs; chasing highs means catching the falling knife. My approach is only to buy on dips, considering entry in the 0.41-0.42 range, with a stop loss below 0.39. The first take profit is at 0.495, with strong resistance near 0.53, which is the previous high. If it reaches near 0.53 but can’t break through, I will exit all positions regardless of profit or loss. If it breaks below the 0.39 support, I will firmly avoid it, as altcoins have no bottom in a downtrend. SNDK (SanDisk), this US stock, has experienced violent spikes and dips, hitting a low of 1191.02 and a pulse high of 1278.85, now pulling back to 1262.60. Big swings with intense bulls vs bears battle. I plan to consider entering long positions on a pullback near the 1242-1245 support zone, with a stop loss below 1230. The first target is the previous high at 1278; if it breaks above that effectively, I will look for continuation to higher levels. If it repeatedly tests 1278 but fails to break through, I will take profits and exit, possibly reversing to short to play the pullback. Overall impression: ETH is a mainstream asset with relatively controllable movement; DOS is an altcoin with high profit temptation but the highest risk, so position size must be kept very small; SNDK is a US stock heavily influenced by market news and prone to sudden gaps. I will not hold heavy positions in all three simultaneously, only trading the one with the clearest signal each time. If the price hasn’t reached my planned entry level, I will patiently wait and never enter impulsively ahead of schedule.

#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Let's look at it from another angle: everyone is waiting for this batch of AI infrastructure companies' earnings reports, but what really deserves caution is not whether the earnings are good or bad, it's that the market has already priced in the "good" for AI in advance. SpaceX's first round of lock-up expiration saw the stock rise instead of fall, which the market interpreted as the bad news being fully priced in. But the subtext of "bad news fully priced in" is: it has already fallen. Before SPCX's earnings, the stock dropped from 225 to 108, so the panic from the lock-up expiration was already digested in advance. It's not that the lock-up expiration isn't scary, it's that the drop had already scared people beforehand. This batch of AI infrastructure companies is different. Lumentum, Coherent, CoreWeave, Applied Materials—all these companies have risen quite a bit this year, and market expectations for them have been pushed very high. If the earnings just "meet expectations," the stock price might not rise. If the guidance is just "okay," funds might actually withdraw. It's not that the performance is bad, it's just not good enough. The demand for optical communications is indeed there, and AI computing power is indeed expanding, but the stock price has already run ahead a lot. The market wants not validation, but outperformance. Cisco is also a point to consider. The enterprise network business is not strongly directly related to AI, and capital expenditure shifting toward AI might actually squeeze traditional business. If Cisco's earnings reaction is lukewarm or weak, the market might reconsider the transmission efficiency of the AI infrastructure line. On Thursday, SpaceX rose 15%, but the main driver was short covering, not genuine buying. Cathie Wood increased her position at $138, but that doesn't mean $138 is the bottom. She bought the rebound, not the bottom. The real test of this earnings season is not "whether the performance is good or bad," but "whether the level of goodness is enough to cover the current valuation." If not, earnings might become a reason to sell. Recently, the market's tolerance for bad news has been higher than expected. Negative non-farm payrolls didn't crash the market, SpaceX's lock-up expiration didn't crash the market. But this tolerance won't last forever. If the upcoming earnings of several AI infrastructure companies are just "okay," the expectations for the entire chain might be re-evaluated.

#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ I see the nonfarm payrolls as just an appetizer; CPI is the real anchor. The nonfarm data knocked the probability of a September rate hike from nearly 60% down to just over 40%, but the real direction will be decided by this Wednesday's CPI. The market isn't focused on employment data now; it's waiting for the CPI to write the verdict for the September FOMC. --- July nonfarm payrolls were -23,000, expected +80,000, missing expectations by over 100,000. May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. After the data release, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from nearly 60% to 44.4%, while the probability of holding rates steady rose to 55.6%. On Polymarket, the probability of no rate change rose to 63%. The market has already moved ahead. But the real variable is Wednesday. The market expects July's overall CPI annual rate to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI from 2.6% to 2.5%. On the surface, this looks like "inflation cooling further," but there's a detail that might be overlooked — core services inflation is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month. In May and June, this figure was 0%. After two months of pause, service inflation might be starting to climb again. This is where the divergence lies. Citi says if inflation softens for a second consecutive month, a September rate hike is basically off the table. Bank of America says the rebound in core services inflation might keep the September hike on the table. Both are major banks analyzing the same data but reaching completely opposite conclusions. BofA even says employment data won't change the Fed's judgment; the policy focus remains on inflation. Their analyst Kate Duguid puts it more bluntly: if inflation data is below expectations but concerns over rising core services inflation dominate, the hike could be delayed until December or later. For the crypto market, there are basically three scenarios Wednesday night: CPI below expectations, service inflation doesn't rise — probability of a September hike is further pushed down, risk appetite recovers, BTC has a chance to rally further. CPI meets expectations but service inflation exceeds expectations — the market will reprice the likelihood of a September hike, and BTC will likely pull back. CPI exceeds expectations, and service inflation also exceeds expectations — hike expectations are reconfirmed, risk assets come under pressure. Nonfarm already moved the market once, but not thoroughly enough. CPI is the real catalyst for repricing. After the nonfarm data release, Bitcoin only rose for five minutes before falling back; the true catalyst is Wednesday. Weakening employment data superficially weakens the basis for a rate hike, but the market is not yet convinced of a monetary policy pivot; all eyes are on Wednesday's CPI. Nonfarm moved the market once, but not thoroughly enough. Wednesday's CPI is the real factor that can make the market reprice. Nonfarm just flipped the table; CPI decides how the next hand is played.

#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 I will not adjust my crypto positions based on this. I will pay attention to the earnings reports of AI chip stocks, but they will not be a direct basis for adjusting crypto positions. The reason is that the transmission chain is not "AI chip stocks rise → crypto rises," but rather "AI chip stock valuations loosen → risk appetite contracts → crypto may be mistakenly hit." There is resonance during downturns, but not necessarily a rise during upturns. This asymmetric transmission relationship is not worth betting on one direction for the sake of the other. To elaborate, the transmission chain does exist but is not a direct linkage. When AI chip stocks rise, risk appetite expands, and funds flow into speculative assets, crypto may indirectly benefit. However, this cycle did not follow that logic. The US stock market rose, but crypto did not follow. The Nasdaq 100 rose nearly 28%, while Bitcoin fell 13% in the same period. Capital structurally flowed into AI stocks without diverting to the crypto market. During downturns, there is actually resonance. Concerns over TSMC's capital expenditure brewed, the semiconductor sector plummeted, and Bitcoin fell simultaneously. The sharp drop in South Korea's semiconductor leading stocks was seen as a risk signal for Bitcoin. Falling together during downturns but not rising together during upturns is the current structure to be most wary of. Therefore, the anchor for adjusting crypto positions should not be the single-quarter earnings of AI chip stocks. What should really be focused on is the structural change where the AI narrative overall enters a "realization and verification period." The market's pricing of AI has shifted from "story" to "execution." This change is not a direct catalyst for the crypto market, but it is a leading signal for the future liquidity environment of the crypto market. If the AI narrative undergoes a systemic valuation correction, the crypto market may be affected as well. But that is a change at the liquidity expectation level, not a transmission at the individual earnings report level. So, I will not adjust positions based on one company's earnings report. The anchoring logic for position adjustment is the structure of the crypto market itself and the turning point of macro liquidity expectations. I will watch AI chip stock earnings reports, but will not operate based on them.