BTC has weakened for the sixth consecutive day, once dropping below $63,000, and the weekly chart also lost the 200-week moving average near $64,000. Notably: even with cooling US CPI and PPI data, BTC has not shown a decent rebound. The market is likely trading on more than just rate cut expectations now; factors include capital flow, chip structure, and overall risk appetite. Currently, there are several key points to watch on the chart: Key support below: $62,500. If broken, the market will further look toward the $62,200 or even $61,300 areas. Short-term resistance above: $64,500–$65,000. If it can effectively hold above $65,400, the price may have a chance to test $67,000–$68,000. BTC's price range over the past 30 days is only about 5.6%, in an extremely compressed state. Low volatility usually doesn't last long, and a more obvious directional choice is likely to come next. The biggest pain point in the options market is at $64,000, with put positions concentrated between $60,000–$62,000, and call positions mainly concentrated between $65,000–$72,000 $BTC

The most common misconception in the market right now is treating all coin holders as the same type of person. In reality, the main pressure in this cycle likely comes from the batch of coins bought in 2025 and held all the way until now. Data shows that this portion of BTC currently has about 4.77 million coins left, which is a 41.5% decrease from the peak in December last year. Early deleveraging, cutting losses, and turnover happened quickly, but the pace slowed after February. However, this group may still be the largest potential selling pressure in the market. On the other hand, the older coins acquired between 2022 and 2024 are mostly still in profit, and the longer they have been held, the less steep the selling slope. Simply put, those who have experienced several market cycles usually don’t easily give up their coins due to a single pullback. Murphy estimates that the maximum drop in this bear market could be in the 50%–60% range, currently around 41%. This estimate doesn’t necessarily mean "there will be another drop," but more importantly: the market may have already entered a very awkward yet crucial phase—short-term holders are still enduring, while long-term holders have little desire to sell. Bear market bottoms are never formed because "no one is losing money," but because "fewer and fewer people are willing to sell" $BTC

Last night, the US stock market looked lively: CPI and PPI continued to cool down, the S&P hit new highs again, and tech stocks got another boost from capital. But I think what’s really worth watching isn’t the indices, but that capital is starting to rotate within the AI industry chain. In the past, whenever AI was mentioned, the first rush was to computing power, optical modules, and Nvidia. Now the market is starting to chase storage and software: SanDisk’s long-term guidance alone pushed its stock up 13.67%, with Micron, SK Hynix, and Western Digital following suit; conversely, optical communications, which surged the day before, collectively pulled back, and Cisco’s earnings beat didn’t stop its stock from dropping 8.4%. This shows the market is increasingly unwilling to buy into the "AI concept" as a whole and is instead looking for who can truly turn AI into revenue and cash flow. The same logic applies to the crypto space. In a bull market, anything can ride the waves of AI, RWA, DePIN; when capital heats up, stories run ahead of fundamentals. But as the market progresses, it will inevitably ask: Does the protocol actually have users? Where does the revenue come from? Beyond airdrops and governance, is there real demand for the token? My own feeling is that the crypto market will increasingly resemble the US stock market: it won’t rise just because of the three letters "AI+", but by seeing who can capture real capital flow. Projects with real business, real revenue, and tokens with use cases will gradually pull away from those purely pumping narratives. Also, don’t just focus on inflation data. The short end is trading on "inflation cooling," but the long end is trading on US fiscal pressure: the 30-year US Treasury auction yield rose to 5.216%, a new high since 2001. If long-term bond yields rise again, high-volatility, high-risk assets like BTC and altcoins may no longer keep pace with tech stocks’ gains $BTC

BTC miners are feeling a bit uncomfortable now: the proportion of fee income has dropped to 0.71%, almost back to the historical low of December 2015. At that time, the fee proportion was 0.69%, but the Bitcoin price was only about $394; the current context is completely different, as the block reward has halved from 25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, so you can't simply compare by looking at one ratio. What’s more noteworthy is that the 7-day average of BTC's total network hashrate has fallen 23% from the peak of about 1,150 EH/s in October 2025 to 886 EH/s; during the same period, the coin price dropped from $124,700 to $63,400, nearly halving. Since mid-2025, fees have long stayed around or below 1%, meaning on-chain transfers and block space competition are not strong enough, and miners mainly rely on block subsidies to make a living. I don't think this can be called a "miner surrender" yet. Shutting down some inefficient machines and cutting costs in large mining farms is a normal move during bear markets or low-profit phases. What really matters is not how much hashrate drops on a certain day, but whether the fee proportion can climb back above 1% and sustain, while hashrate starts to recover. That would indicate that on-chain demand and miner expectations are truly being restored for $BTC

US July PPI year-on-year is 4.7%, although lower than the expected 4.9%, this figure in the crypto market feels more like a "less tense breath," not exactly a bullish reversal. Month-on-month is flat, indicating upstream price pressure hasn't continued to rise for now, and the market will naturally bet that rate cut expectations are no longer so distant. But looking at macro data now, I'm less eager to chase the first bullish candle. Often, the market trades on the expectation gap after data release, not the data itself. What really needs watching is: whether US Treasury yields are moving down, whether the dollar is weakening, and whether BTC can volume-wise hold key levels. The data is relatively mild, just giving risk assets a bit more breathing room. How to position still depends on the market trend $BTC

The issue with DOGE is not a lack of recognition; on the contrary, it might be one of the most well-known assets in the crypto space. Everyone knows it, every exchange lists it, and its liquidity has always been decent. Unlike those small coins that no one dares to buy when they rise and can't be sold when they fall, DOGE's biggest advantage is that it has never truly disappeared from the public eye. But precisely because of this, its awkwardness is obvious: everyone knows it, but for now, few are willing to pay upfront for "its next chapter." Bitcoin thrives on macro narratives and institutional capital; Ethereum thrives on its ecosystem and asset valuation; various new public chains, AI, RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi can at least tell a story about "where future growth will come from." What about DOGE? It's still the same DOGE: strong community, high recognition, and occasional emotional spikes when Musk mentions it, but these are more like its foundation rather than an engine for sustained growth. In previous bull markets, when liquidity was abundant, people would buy the main themes first, then secondary themes, and eventually even "doge avatars" could be bought out of belief. Back then, DOGE's logic was simple: it was popular enough, easy to understand, and meme-worthy enough for retail investors to rush in. But now it's different. Money isn't that easy to make, and people ask: where is the incremental capital? Why must new users buy it? Besides sentiment, what else can create sustained demand? One more easily overlooked point: DOGE, as a long-established large-cap meme, now requires a much larger amount of capital to rise than it did back in the day. It's no longer a small ticket that can "take off with a few multiples," but more like a well-liquidated old asset that needs strong consensus to be reignited. Without sufficient risk appetite, without a real wave of retail return, and without new major viral events, it can easily get stuck grinding at the bottom repeatedly $DOGE

BTC has been hovering around $62,000–$65,000 recently, with AI, US stocks, and gold taking turns drawing attention, leaving crypto somewhat sidelined. On-chain data shows a large amount of chips settled between $61,000 and $65,000, especially dense around $63,000. My understanding is: some who wanted to leave have done so, and more people willing to buy at this level are emerging; the market is reestablishing a consensus on cost. However, several factors suppressing the market are gradually easing: macro interest rate hike expectations are cooling down, Strategy's liquidity concerns are alleviating, and AI trading is also starting to cool off. The current market feels like a "no man's land": crypto participants fear further drops, while outside capital is waiting for clearer signals. But by the time everything is confirmed, the comfortable entry points are often gone. If you believe in BTC's long-term logic, observe this phase of low volatility, low attention, and continuous chip turnover closely. The bottom is never a single point but a prolonged, testing period. It may not be the bottom yet, but at least the market is undergoing some noteworthy changes $BTC Personal analysis record, not investment advice

Russia has finally put BTC, ETH, and USDT on the official tradable list. But don’t rush to interpret this as a full embrace of Crypto. Ordinary investors can only buy these three, with a maximum annual investment of 300,000 rubles through a single intermediary; professional investors face fewer restrictions, but everyone must pass a mandatory test before trading. The new regulations will take effect on September 1. I think this approach is very typical: it’s not about opening up altcoins or encouraging everyone to speculate on crypto, but rather about first circling the most liquid, mature market assets with the longest pricing history, giving ordinary people a "controlled entry." BTC is digital gold, ETH is on-chain infrastructure, and USDT is the most commonly used crypto dollar in the real world. Including these three actually shows that regulators understand where the real market demand lies. The 300,000 ruble limit isn’t high; it’s clearly not meant to let retail investors get rich overnight from high-volatility assets, but to isolate risk within a relatively bearable range. As for the mandatory test, it’s a preemptive boundary: you can participate, but not without knowing what you’re buying. For the market, what’s truly worth noting is that more and more countries are shifting from "whether crypto assets should exist" to "which assets can enter the regulatory system, how much ordinary people can buy, and who is responsible if risks occur." In the future, the crypto market may not become wilder but will increasingly resemble traditional finance: clearer thresholds, greater compliance importance, and mainstream assets first to benefit from policy advantages. Altcoin seasons will still rely on sentiment and liquidity, but regulation demands order. These two logics are probably hard to fully reconcile in the short term $BTC $ETH $USDT

Shocking! The same wallet was hacked again three years later, losing $25.6 million In 2023, it lost $24.23 million due to malicious token approvals, and the attacker later returned about 90% of the funds; this time, the assets were quickly converted into DAI and ETH, leaving almost no reaction time What chills me the most about this incident is not how powerful the hacker is, but that many people’s understanding of "wallet security" still stops at: as long as the private key is not leaked, it’s fine. In fact, the real risk for large assets often isn’t the private key, but what approvals you have signed, which DApps you have connected to, and to whom you have given unlimited permissions Self-custody indeed offers freedom, but the flip side of freedom is: there’s no customer service to help you revoke that one slip-up. On-chain, the most expensive thing is never Gas, but a signature you thought was "no big deal, just a confirmation" $ETH

Token Terminal data shows that currently about 34.4% of ETH is staked, reaching a historic high. Compared to the staking ratio of about 30% at the beginning of this year, it has increased by 4.4 percentage points in just a few months. This means that on one hand, more and more holders are choosing to lock their ETH on-chain to earn staking rewards, reducing the amount of freely circulating ETH in the market; on the other hand, the continuous rise in staking ratio also reflects some capital's recognition of Ethereum's long-term value and ecosystem returns. However, a higher staking ratio does not necessarily mean the price will rise. Going forward, attention should still be paid to ETH spot demand, institutional capital flows, on-chain activity, and potential phased supply changes caused by unstaking. What will you do with your ETH—hold it, stake it, or wait for a better trading opportunity $ETH