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On September 8, UBS overturned its "no change for the whole year" stance, saying there would be two 25bp hikes in September and December. On September 11, Goldman Sachs changed from "no change" to "25bp hike in September." On the same day, TD Securities directly reversed to "three rate hikes starting in September, with the last two in October and January next year." Citi expects a rate hike in September, maintaining rates until June 2027. JPMorgan changed to two 25bp hikes in September and December. All six investment banks flipped on the same day. But what was the situation six months ago? In February this year, TD Securities expected three rate cuts within the year. In June, Waugh’s debut raised the dot plot to 3.8%, with nearly half of officials turning hawkish on rate hikes. Then in August, CPI data came out with core month-on-month at 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%, pushing the probability of a rate hike from 69.4% directly to 90%. 90%. The first time in three years. The last Fed rate hike was in July 2023. Rates were held at 5.25%–5.50%. Now, they are moving up again from 3.50%–3.75%. Why is Wall Street collectively tearing up their reports? Waugh reversed the burden of proof. The original words from the Jackson Hole speech were "there is more work to do if inflation targets are not met." Previously, the burden was to prove rate hikes were justified; now it is to prove that pausing is justified. And the "new Fed press agency" Nick Timiraos revealed a more painful data point: since the 1990s, the Fed has only once stopped after a single rate hike—in 1997. Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida said directly: if there is a rate hike next week, there is a very high probability of another one. To translate: this is not a one-and-done rate hike. The market is pricing in not a single hike, but a cycle. But the truly strange thing is happening in the crypto market. After the CPI data release, Bitcoin rose 1.5% against the trend, returning to $78,600. A 1.5% increase within 24 hours shows strong resilience. 21Shares research strategist Matt Mena provided data: within 30 days of core CPI exceeding expectations, Bitcoin’s average gain is 2.13%. ETF funds are tearing apart. From September 8 to 10, spot ETFs saw outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $449 million. But in the same week, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas observed a single-day inflow of about $500 million, "like hitting a home run during a slump." Institutions are both dumping and bottom-fishing. The same week. The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 74 to 56, with severe long liquidations. But Bitcoin did not crash. It hovered between $76,000 and $78,500, waiting for the FOMC, holding firm. How to understand this divergence? LMAX strategist Joel Kruger said a key point: traders were already leaning toward rate hikes before the CPI release; most hawkish risks are already priced in. Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors added a harsher point: Bitcoin and gold rising together shows the market doubts not the interest rate level, but policy credibility. "We cannot print oil, and Bitcoin cannot be devalued." Rate hikes bearish? That was the 2022 script. Now the market fears not the hikes themselves, but government debt and inflation spiraling out of control. One crucial difference most people overlook. The 2022 rate hike cycle started from zero interest rates. This time, it starts from 3.50%–3.75%. Raising from zero to 5% is called tightening. Raising above 3.75% means tightening further in an already tight environment, fully opening the imagination space for terminal rates. If TD Securities’ predicted three hikes materialize, it means three consecutive liquidity tightenings over the next four months: September, October, and January next year. Each one directly drains liquidity from the crypto market. Are you ready to get slapped three months in a row? 👉 Six months ago, Wall Street was discussing how many cuts; six months later, they are discussing how many hikes. 👉 Has your position kept up with this change? 👉 An 82% probability of a rate hike is not news. The news is: no one knows when the second hike will come. $BTC $ETH $XAU #美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温