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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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1140美元的ZEC,你还敢买吗? 先看表面:冲高1297后回调15%,散户慌了。 9月9日ZEC摸到1297,然后一路砸回1140。群里开始喊“见顶了”“隐私币就是一波流”。但你仔细看——回调缩量,日线RSI从超买回到64,价格还站在20/50/100日均线上方。 这不是崩盘,这是主升浪后的高位喘气。问题是,喘完这一口气,是继续冲还是直接躺? 第一件事:ETF落地了,但这不是给你抬轿的。 Grayscale ZCSH,美国第一只隐私币现货ETF,8月25日在NYSE Arca上市,AUM已经干到4.63亿美金。DCG相关方配了1个亿。 机构第一次能合规买隐私币,通道打开了。 但ETF买的是现货,不是你的合约多单。 价格破1000后,大量空单爆仓,Hyperliquid上部分巨鲸浮亏数千万。空头被埋了,但下一个被埋的,可能就是追高的多头。 第二件事:9月14日投票,供给叙事要变天。 NU7范围投票,9月14日19:00 UTC截止。议题包括:用平滑发行替代减半、锁箱再发行时间、Sprout退役、区块时间缩到25秒。 ZEC可能不再玩“减半暴涨”那套了。 如果平滑发行通过,供给曲线变平,长期更稳,但短期“减半炒作”的预期就没了。如果没通过,减半叙事继续,但争议会放大波动。 第三件事:技术面告诉你,1140不是最佳买点。 从1297回调到1140,跌了12-16%。 日线出现上升楔形+顶背离警告,部分分析指向可能回踩1000-1050甚至900。涨时放量、跌时缩量是健康回调,但杠杆盘太重,闪崩风险一直在。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 现货ETF落地,机构合规通道打开 空头被清洗,费率转负,空头回补 屏蔽池占比28.9%,浮筹减少 周线主升浪结构未破,均线多头排列 一边是: 一年22倍,获利盘巨大,随时止盈 NU7投票可能改变减半叙事 FOMC若鹰派,BTC回调,ZEC弹性更大 欧盟AMLR对隐私币限制,欧洲通道受限 上方:1165-1200 → 1230-1245 → 1296-1300 下方:1100-1050 → 1000(生死线)→ 880-900 操作策略 短线选手: 回踩1080-1050且稳住(放量阳线或4H不破),目标1200-1240,第二看1290。若直接从1140反弹站稳1165,小仓追多,止损1120下方。 波段玩家: 等投票+FOMC落地再决定方向。日线收盘跌破1100且反抽无力,减仓观望,下一看1000。跌破1000放量,短线转空,别抄底。 长线信仰者: ZEC是“比特币式供给+可选隐私”,2100万上限,减半2028。长期逻辑在,但1140不是定投位。等1000以下再分批,别在情绪高点All in。 ZEC涨了22倍,你不敢上车;回调15%,你也不敢抄底—— 那你来币圈干嘛?看别人赚钱吗? 但记住:隐私是刚需,你的仓位不是。活着,才能等到下一波。 1140这个位置,你敢追多还是等回踩? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
On one side, Bitcoin ETFs have been redeemed for 4 consecutive days, while on the other, Ethereum ETFs attracted $216 million in a single day. Same market, same group of institutions, doing completely opposite things. Retail investors are panicking, smart money is relocating. Three data points reveal the capital flow— 📌 New Reality One: HYPE—On-chain money printing is accelerating In the past 24 hours, Hyperliquid repurchased and burned 32,700 HYPE at an average price of $81, worth about $2.65 million. A total of 48.57 million tokens have been burned, accounting for 4.86% of the maximum supply, valued at approximately $3.82 billion. What does this mean? Every second, a fire is burning HYPE. And this is not just repurchasing with fees. The AQAv2 mechanism launched on August 26 channels about 90% of the income generated from over $5 billion USDC reserves on the platform directly into the buyback fund. An annualized new buy volume of $135 million to $160 million. The first payment arrived on October 3. A protocol that doesn’t need ETFs or Wall Street, creating its own buy pressure. This is the ultimate form of token economics: you don’t wait for others to buy; your code buys for you. 📌 New Reality Two: ETH—Institutions are doing “quality sorting” On September 11, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $216 million. BlackRock’s ETHA alone absorbed $149 million. Three consecutive weeks of net inflows. ETF net asset ratio rose to 5.28%, with total net assets of $16.3 billion. Now look at BTC— Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows for 4 consecutive days. From September 8 to 10, a total of $332 million flowed out. On September 11, another $13.28 million outflow. ETH is attracting capital, BTC is bleeding. This is no coincidence. ETH has staking yields—ETHE currently offers a gross staking return of about 2.73%. BTC does not. When the macro environment is uncertain, institutions are making choices: an asset with cash flow versus an asset supported purely by narrative, which do you choose? Institutions are voting with real money. 📌 New Reality Three: BTC—Choked by macro factors BTC is not weak. BTC is being choked by the 10-year US Treasury yield. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.969%, dangerously close to the 5% threshold, hitting a new high since October 2023. Meanwhile, core CPI in August exceeded expectations, and the market’s pricing for a Fed rate hike on September 16 has soared above 85%. Goldman Sachs has also urgently revised its stance from “hold steady” to “raise by 25 basis points.” Where is the money flowing? To US Treasuries with risk-free yields approaching 5%. BTC is struggling between 76,000 and 77,000, with support levels around 74,000 to 75,000. It’s not that BTC is underperforming; the Fed is just too harsh. 🧠 Putting these three data points together, there is only one conclusion— Capital is migrating from “macro-sensitive assets” to “assets with independent cash flow/income logic.” BTC relies on ETFs, ETFs rely on Wall Street, Wall Street watches the Fed’s face—this chain is too long; if any link breaks, capital withdraws. ETH has staking yields, HYPE has protocol buybacks and USDC reserve income—they don’t need to wait for the Fed’s goodwill; they can generate buy pressure themselves. The market rewards assets that “make money on their own” and punishes those that “can only wait for others to buy.” $BTC $ETH $HYPE #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元

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