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Gold at 4355 USD, do you dare to chase it? First, look at the surface: Rate hike expectations crush everything, bulls are being ground down. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.97%, hitting a multi-year high. The US Dollar Index hovers above 99, refusing to fall. The probability of a rate hike in September surged from 67% to 85%, and the market votes with its feet: holding non-yielding gold? Better to buy US Treasuries and earn interest. From the 4480-4510 resistance zone, it has been steadily declining, pressed tightly by the downtrend channel, short-term bearish, don’t fight the trend. First point: With an 85% chance of a rate hike, why hasn’t gold collapsed? Logically, with rising rate hike expectations, gold should have knelt. But it didn’t. Last Friday’s CPI data showed headline monthly rate at 0.4%, year-over-year 3.4%, core in line with expectations. Gold first dropped below 4300, then—dip buying immediately pulled it back to 4400. Retail investors panic thinking "rate hikes mean gold is finished," while central banks quietly buy gold. Geopolitical risks pushed oil prices above 100 USD, inflation expectations are far from dead. What does it mean when it should fall but doesn’t? This is it. Second point: Geopolitics + oil prices, gold’s trump card isn’t played yet. Tensions in the Middle East/US-Iran, Brent crude oil above 100 USD. High oil prices = rising inflation expectations = gold’s hedge demand remains intact. On one side, rate hike expectations weigh down; on the other, geopolitical safe-haven demand supports. Gold is currently being torn between these two forces. But concerns about US fiscal and debt sustainability remain, and the long-term trend of central bank gold purchases is unbroken. Third point: Technically, gold has reached a crossroads where a choice must be made. From 5602 down to 4300, a retracement of over 20%. After a big drop on September 11, it found a bottom and rebounded, low at 4292, closed at 4349, with intraday volatility over 100 points—a typical data-driven shakeout. RSI is neutral to slightly low, no extreme oversold. The 4-hour structure shows "lower highs," short-term bearish. But multiple buy orders appear around 4300, the bulls’ last defense line. Resistance above: 4380-4420 → 4426 → 4480-4500 Support below: 4350 → 4320-4300 (important demand zone) → 4280-4295 (stronger demand) Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide. On one side: 85% rate hike probability weighing down, real rates relatively high US Dollar Index consolidating above 99, no sign of weakening Retraced over 20% from ATH, profit-taking ongoing 4H structure with lower highs, short-term bearish On the other side: Dip buying after CPI sell-off pulled gold back to 4400, it should have fallen but didn’t Geopolitical tensions + oil price at 100 USD, safe-haven demand intact Long-term central bank gold buying trend continues Multiple buy orders around 4300 confirm demand zone Trading strategy Bearish bias: Light short positions at resistance 4380-4420 (if upper shadows, rejection, or 4H close bearish appear), targets 4320 → 4300 → 4280, stop loss above 4426. If it breaks below 4320 and fails to recover, add shorts following the trend. Bullish bias: Light long positions on clear bottoming signals at 4320-4300 (long lower shadows, volume surge, 1H/4H structure reversal), targets 4380 → 4420, stop loss below 4280. Gold now is like Bitcoin in March 2020— 99% of people thought "the bull market is over," but when the Fed unleashed liquidity, it went straight from 4000 to 69000. The day 4300 holds, you’ll realize: It’s not that gold is weak, it’s that you always got scared away before the FOMC. At 4355, do you dare to bottom-fish or short? $ETH $XAU $XAUT