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$BTC $ETH: Will it go up or down? After reading this indicator, you'll know. The answer lies on that thick red line, the STH cost basis, which is the average buy-in price of short-term holders. There is only one rule: if the price is above it, it's a bullish structure; if it falls below, it's a bearish structure. This isn't something I made up; it's been consistently true over past cycles. During bull markets, the price stays above this line most of the time; during bear markets, it stays below. The drop from 90,000 to 58,000 in the first half of this year was a process of the price being pressed down by this line. Now, The price is 77,000, the red line is 71,000. The price is above it, so structurally, it's going up. It is visibly chasing upward, rising from 67,000 to 71,000 in just two weeks. The reason is simple. The recent surge in August from 62,000 to 82,000 means the new money entering the market has a cost basis above 70,000. As soon as they come in, they push the average cost of the whole group upward. So this line will stretch itself to catch up, which implies two things: 1. The floor is rising; there are buyers defending the downside. 2. The safety cushion is thinning. Two weeks ago, the price had a 10,000 buffer above the red line; now it's only 6,000. The conclusion is clear: Directionally, as long as it doesn't break below 71,000, the bullish structure holds, meaning "upward". Tonight is CPI, next Tuesday and Wednesday are FOMC meetings; the answer might come faster than in a month. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向