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咕咕怪
咕咕怪
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下周,真正要防的不只是加息,还有流动性黑天鹅 如果这颗雷真的炸了,风险资产集体承压,$ETH 、$BTC 先跌,美股尤其科技股压力更大,$ZEC 这种近期涨幅巨大的高波动资产,可能跌得更加凶。黄金则比较特殊,美元和实际利率上升压制金价,但中东局势和避险资金又会托住黄金,最终可能走出剧烈震荡。 真正的超级关键周。美联储9月16日议息,市场目前已经高度押注加息25个基点,紧接着日本央行9月18日也可能加息25个基点至1.25%。两大央行一前一后收紧流动性,真正需要警惕的,是日元套息交易平仓+美元流动性收缩同时发生。 那特朗普还能救市吗? 喊话降息、施压美联储只是第一步,真能救市场的还是压油价、缓和美伊局势、释放财政刺激以及稳定金融市场流动性。但问题是,通胀刚被油价重新点燃,现在想让美联储突然转鸽,难度可不小。特朗普再怎么画饼,也不能凭一句话把通胀和利率一起变没。 美债收益率、美元、日元和油价能不能同时失控。 如果这几个指标一起向上,黑天鹅怕是真的要来。 反正我的空单是拿的稳稳的,管它什么白天鹅,黑天鹅,尽管来吧。 以上仅个人观点,不构成任何投资建议!
咕咕怪
咕咕怪
The expectation of interest rate cuts has been completely shattered, it's bad news, rate hikes are basically certain, and institutions are all selling off? $BTC I tend to think it will continue to fluctuate downward this month, 75,000 is the first test, if it can't hold, 70,000 or even lower might be tested. $ETH is more elastic than BTC, but that also means it has stronger damage when it falls. If BTC can't hold, ETH will fall even harder. $ZEC's previous gains have already been crazy enough; the stronger the speculative coin, the more you have to beware of high-level capital cashing out. Now I actually prefer its bearish logic. PPI year-on-year 5.4%, CPI month-on-month 0.4%, core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, inflation hasn't given the Federal Reserve much room to ease. The market's expectation for a rate hike in September continues to heat up, and BTC has been under pressure from around $80,000, dropping as low as nearly $77,000. More notably is the capital flow. At the beginning of September, BTC spot ETFs were still crazily attracting funds, with about $1 billion flowing in over just three trading days, but then continuous net outflows occurred, with single-day outflows even expanding to about $280 million. The attitude of capital has changed, making it naturally more difficult for the price to continue to be forcibly pulled up. September 16 FOMC, September 25 BTC and ETH quarterly options expire concentratedly, the next two weeks are destined to be anything but calm. #PPI、CPI公布后,多家机构上调9月加息预期 Just personal opinion, not any investment advice!

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