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PONS at $0.56, do you dare to bottom-fish? First, look at the surface: the parabolic curve broke, retail investors started complaining. On September 5, it surged to 0.97, Binance and OK perpetual contracts launched, Uniswap Labs bought in, Cumberland and Wintermute entered, LBank opened a special zone. The whole network shouted "Robinhood Chain leader" and "the next Pump fun." Then what? It dropped 30-35% in 7 days, now oscillating around 0.56. The hype shifted from peak to cautious observation. First thing: all the positives have been realized, whose coins are you buying now? Uniswap Labs bought PONS, Binance/OK launched perpetuals, institutions kept accumulating, platform daily fees once reached millions of dollars, even surpassing Pump fun during some periods. But the price has gone from 0.0033 to 0.97. Early players had ridiculously low costs and gained tens of thousands of times. If you buy at 0.56, they might have opened positions at 0.0033. Listing is not a positive; listing is a liquidity exit. Second thing: the 30% burn is real, but your principal might also be burned. PONS is not pure air. It runs a deflationary flywheel based on real fees: 1% trading fee Creators get 70%, protocol gets 30% 80% of the protocol share is used for TWAP buyback and burn of PONS About 30% of supply burned by September 8 Original 1 billion, circulating about 692-712 million, market cap about $390-410 million But risks are naked: Highly dependent on Robinhood Chain meme/launch hype Gas subsidies end around September 29, activity may drop Competition from old players like Pump fun Essentially still a high-beta speculative asset Third thing: technically + macro, September 16 is the big test. From the July low of 0.0033 to the September 5 ATH of 0.97, there was almost no decent pullback. Now it has pulled back about 40% from the high, 0.56 is a key support test zone. Short-term 15min-4h: bearish bias, many Strong Sell signals. Macro is even less friendly: BTC oscillating near $77,000, August CPI YoY 3.4%, PPI hot, core inflation sticky. CME FedWatch shows 70-85% chance of 25bp rate hike at September 15-16 FOMC. If hike happens, high-beta altcoins get hit first. Bull vs bear, judge for yourself On one side: Real fee income, protocol buyback and burn About 30% supply burned, deflationary flywheel spinning Institutional accumulation by Uniswap Labs, Cumberland, Wintermute Market cap $390-410 million, revenue multiples relatively reasonable On the other side: Positives realized, entering digestion phase 7-day drop 30-35%, profit-taking ongoing Derivatives long liquidations, open interest down Gas subsidies end late September, hype may fade September 16 FOMC rate hike expectation peak Intense competition, Pump fun and others are tough opponents Resistance above: 0.62-0.65 → 0.70 → 0.80-0.97 Support below: 0.55-0.58 → 0.50 → lower Fibonacci retracement levels Operation strategy Short-term traders: Wait for clear bottoming candlestick at 0.55-0.56 — long lower shadow, volume surge bullish candle, or 4h close above 0.58, then lightly try longs. Target 0.62-0.65, stop loss below 0.53. If it breaks below 0.55 and BTC weakens simultaneously, don’t bottom-fish, consider short or wait. Watch 0.5 below first. Swing players: Wait for September 16 FOMC outcome and late September gas subsidy changes. 0.50-0.55 range can be watched in batches, but reduce positions if it breaks below 0.50. Long-term believers: Deflationary flywheel and real income still exist, 0.50-0.55 might be a relatively reasonable accumulation zone. But you must accept large volatility, don’t go all in, don’t borrow money. PONS now is like Bolt after running 100 meters — Not dead, just needs to catch breath. But if you chased at 0.97, now is not bottom-fishing, it’s self-rescue. On the day 0.55 volume stabilizes, you will realize: It’s not that PONS is bad, it’s that you always believed the story at the parabolic top and cut losses at the pullback bottom. At 0.56, do you dare to bottom-fish? $ETH $SOL $PONS