Post

UNI at $6.25, are you chasing it? First, look at the surface: explosive positive news, but the price doesn't rise. In the past 30 days, Uniswap spot trading volume reached $70.6 billion, exceeding the combined total of the next three DEXs. On September 4, 184,000 UNI were burned in a single day. Arthur Hayes bought 240,000 UNI via OTC. But what about the price? It dropped from 7.48 to 6.09, now at 6.25, fluctuating within a range. Because the good news has already been priced in, this week’s FOMC and the subsidy expiration on 9/29 are two hard thresholds. First: The burn is real, but the key lies with Robinhood. UNI has finally shifted from "only voting without rent" to "usage → fees → burn." But Robinhood Chain contributes about one-third of Uniswap’s trading volume, yet accounts for more than half of the burns. On September 29, Robinhood Wallet’s gas subsidy expires. During the subsidy period, high-frequency, small orders, Meme, and new listings were amplified. After the subsidy ends, can this volume be retained? This directly determines whether the burn narrative can continue. Second: FOMC is coming this week, altcoin Beta gets cut first. BTC fell from 81,000 to 76,600-77,300, CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, PPI is hot. On September 15-16 FOMC, the market once raised the rate hike probability to 60-70%. Whether they raise rates or not, the dot plot and Powell’s tone will cause volatility in risk assets. ETF can support BTC’s bottom, but when rate hike expectations rise, altcoin Beta still gets cut first. UNI, a highly elastic asset that just had a rally, is more likely to have its valuation cut first in the macro window. Third: Technically, 6.25 is the midpoint, the most awkward. On a large scale: From mid-August, it rose from 3.2-3.5 to 7.48, nearly doubling in a month, the main uptrend is still intact. Daily EMA20 is at 5.7-5.8, EMA50 at 4.8-4.9. As long as it doesn’t break 5.80, the mid-term uptrend structure remains. On a medium scale: 7.50 is the distribution high, it pulled back to 5.86 then rebounded to 6.56, but didn’t reclaim 6.80. The 4H range is 6.16-6.55, 6.25 is stuck slightly above the midpoint. Resistance above: 6.45-6.55 → 6.68-6.86 → 7.20-7.50 Support below: 6.16-6.20 → 5.95-6.00 → 5.80-5.86 (bull-bear boundary) → 5.50-5.54 → 4.60-4.80 Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: 30-day volume $70.6 billion, exceeding the combined total of the next three DEXs Burn mechanism online, $1.15 million burned in a single day, annualized $90 million Arthur Hayes OTC bought 240,000 UNI Monthly main uptrend, daily moving averages still bullish On the other side: Robinhood subsidy expires on 9/29, the burn narrative’s key point 9/16 FOMC, rate hike expectations peak 6.80 not reclaimed, 7.50 distribution high is heavy FDV $5.5-6.2 billion, still expensive relative to protocol revenue 6.25 midpoint, very poor risk-reward ratio Trading strategy Range trading: Bearish test: resistance at 6.48-6.56, 4H closes bearish or with long upper shadow. Stop loss at 6.72, targets 6.20/6.00/5.86. Bullish test: holds at 6.18-6.22, or stabilizes with low volume at 5.95-6.00. Stop loss at 5.78, targets 6.45/6.68/6.85. Breakout follow-up: Bull confirmation: 4H close above 6.56, pullback not below 6.40, targets 6.85→7.20. Fake breakout, exit immediately. Bear confirmation: 4H close below 5.80, failed rebound at 5.90-6.00, targets 5.54→5.20. Mid-term bulls should reduce positions. From now until Monday Asia session: liquidity is poor over the weekend, reduce leverage, avoid overnight heavy positions. 9/15-16 FOMC: close most short-term positions 6 hours before the meeting, keep only small positions. 9/29 Robinhood subsidy expiration: observe on-chain volume and burn decay one week in advance. If volume halves, don’t stubbornly hold below 6.00. Add 20-30% mid-term long near 6.00. Stop loss at 5.80, single loss controlled at 200-300 U. Reduce half at rebound to 6.85-7.20. Do not fully load positions at 6.25. Spot/mid-term: scale in at 5.80-6.00, stop loss at 5.50, hold for 1-3 months. UNI now is like a rich second-generation who just got their salary— Has money to burn, but hasn’t proven it can consistently earn. 6.25 is not a buy point, it’s a patience test point. Only chase longs above 6.55, admit defeat below 5.80, swing trade in between, survive FOMC this week first. At 6.25, do you dare to chase? $BTC $SOL $UNI