It's Saturday, so let me share my approach for this weekend: staying flat on perpetuals, no holding contracts overnight. Many think being out of the market means no conviction or being timid. Quite the opposite. On weekends, liquidity is thin and news is chaotic—Iran, oil prices, next week's AI conference, any one of these can spike your stop-loss while you're asleep. Holding contracts during such times means profits come down to luck, losses hit your principal. After years of playing cards, my biggest improvement wasn't learning how to bet, but learning when not to bet. If the hand is bad, position is bad, or pot odds aren't right, just fold without regret. Trading is the same. Until $BTC triggers the clear signal I want, I stay flat and wait. The biggest enemy to your account is impatience.

Don't just focus on the crypto circle when watching it. Next Tuesday, Trump is going to meet with a bunch of top AI company executives at the White House and officially launch an AI-driven government website America.gov, with the Vice President personally endorsing it. Many people will think: the government is involved, the AI narrative is solid, it's bullish. Let me remind you to read it the other way around. When a theme gets so hot that the head of state personally endorses it and holds a press conference, it often means it's not just starting out, but that the market has already fully priced it in and it has entered a stage where new narratives need to be continuously fed to maintain valuation. The AI heavyweight stocks in the US market next door have quietly been losing steam these past few weeks. The correlation between $BTC and these AI giants is higher than many people think. Don't just look at on-chain data; look up and see how much longer the momentum next door can last.

The news is heating up again: Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal, and reportedly threatened to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections, even calling the Strait of Hormuz the "Trump Strait". In the comments section, some people are already reacting reflexively: war, safe haven, $BTC is going to rise. Those who play the market are most wary of this kind of "news—sentiment" straight-line reaction. This round of geopolitical risk transmission to the market is not following the safe-haven path at all, but rather the oil price—inflation—interest rate path. If a real war breaks out, oil will spike first, inflation expectations will rise, interest rates won’t come down, and risk assets will actually take the first hit. Don’t just blindly shout that "war" is bullish for crypto. First, look at how crude oil and U.S. Treasuries are moving, then decide which side to take.

Many people ask me, you keep shouting short every day, so why is your largest spot exposure actually a high beta altcoin? This is the other side of low-frequency big bets: directional judgment and position expression are two different things. I've already closed that short leg on perpetuals, but the net long position on spot hasn't moved. Why dare to hold a token with much higher volatility than $BTC? Because spot has no liquidation line, spikes can't kill me, I can hold through the volatility and wait for it to find its own way. The most common mistake retail investors make is treating spot like futures—wanting to run when it rises a bit, cutting losses when it falls a bit, and in the end turning a position that should be held for months into dozens of fee-churning trades. Holding on is harder than buying right.

Don't just focus on the crypto circle when watching it. Tomorrow, Trump is going to launch an AI-driven government website America.gov, with giants like Jensen Huang and Elon Musk attending to endorse it. I'm not commenting on whether the website is good or not; what I care about is another layer of signal: when a narrative heats up so much that even the White House personally gets involved and industry leaders gather to back it, it often means the sentiment has already reached a very high level. Historically, when governments and celebrities cluster to endorse a certain sector, it is often close to a phase peak rather than a starting point. AI is a real trend, I don't deny that. But "real trend" and "worth chasing at the current price" are two different things. Risk assets are correlated, and those watching $BTC should also keep an eye on this signal.

Here's an easily overlooked but very telling signal: volume. Today, the volume ratios across most timeframes are hovering around just a few tenths, extremely low volume. In plain language: big money is basically on the sidelines; no one is willing to throw a lot of cash at this level. And an extremely low-volume choppy market is exactly a meat grinder for retail accounts—you think you're buying low and selling high, but you're actually just paying fees to the exchange. Without any clear direction, going back and forth will only slowly erode your principal. $BTC has been grinding within a narrow range these past few days. My approach is pretty boring: if there's no clear breakout signal, I trade less. Liquidity is even thinner on weekends, so it's especially important to keep your hands off during times like these. Watching the show is also a position.

$SOL led the gains today, bouncing more than 3% in 24 hours, leaving $BTC and $ETH behind. Many people's first reaction was "catching up, chasing a bit," but I advise you to first understand why it is strong. Three points: First, its holdings increased by 7% against the trend today, indicating real new capital entering, not just circulating existing funds; second, in the recent day, the ratio of short positions liquidated was nearly four to one, short squeeze is the fuel for this move; third, it is one of the few major coins with bullish alignment across short, medium, and long-term cycles. The structure is indeed the smoothest. But the parabolic move caused by the short squeeze comes fast and goes fast—strong as it is, don't catch the last wave at the peak of the hype.

Closing out Friday, speaking from the heart: This week I closed my $ETH perpetual short leg, took a small loss, and didn’t stubbornly hold on through the weekend. One of the most common mistakes retail traders make is that after getting the direction right once, they insist on proving they’re "always right" with a single position. Card players don’t think like that—when the cards change, they switch hands. Taking a small loss isn’t shameful; stubbornly holding until you blow up is. Right now, I mainly hold longs in spot, basically no perpetual shorts over the weekend, keeping it light. There are plenty more hands to play next week, no need to rush. This week, were you pushed by the market, or did you decide when to step away yourself?