比特币子棋
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Tonight's CPI, the real focus is not 3.4%, but the core 0.2%
At 20:30 tonight, the US CPI will be released. The market expects a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a core month-on-month increase of 0.2%. Since the probability of a rate hike in September is still fifty-fifty, a 0.1 percentage point deviation in the core data could trigger a repricing of US Treasuries, US stocks, and BTC.
My judgment is: overall inflation continues to cool down, but the core won't be particularly good.
If the core is below 0.2%, it is favorable for risk assets, and BTC has a chance to break through $64,500 to $65,000, with a further target of $66,000; if the core reaches 0.3% or higher, US Treasuries and the dollar may strengthen, and BTC needs to guard against falling below $63,000, looking down to $62,500.
If the data meets expectations, I tend to think BTC will first surge, then fluctuate.
Don't rush to chase the first candlestick tonight. The real direction will be decided in the 30 to 60 minutes after the release, depending on whether US Treasury yields fall back and whether BTC can hold the breakout level. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
It could be the bottom, but it might also just be a sideways movement within a downtrend.
So I'm still waiting.
Not because I can predict a lower point, nor because I have to catch the absolute bottom, but because the current structure doesn't yet justify me taking the risk of heavy positions and making mistakes.
If BTC regains and holds the key resistance, confirming the trend, I can buy at a higher price, sacrificing some early profits for a clearer entry reason, which I can accept.
If $60,000 ultimately proves to be the bottom, I'll accept that too.
I used to think missing out was a loss, but now I understand that missing out at most means less profit, while heavy positions taken at the wrong time can make you leave the table.
The longer you trade, the more cautious you become.
If you don't understand it, don't trade; if the trend hasn't emerged, just wait; if you judge wrong, be willing to admit it; if you reach your planned profit, be willing to exit.
In 2018, I saw many people disappear, and in 2022, another group replaced them. Every bull market brings new experts, but after the bear market ends, many of their profiles have long gone dark.
So when someone asks me now what the biggest lesson in trading is, I won't say catching the bottom or escaping the top.
I have simply finally accepted something very ordinary yet hard to do: there is a lot of money in the market, but not every bit belongs to me.
Dare to miss out, dare to stay out of the market, dare to admit mistakes, dare to take profits, and dare to admit when you really don't understand the current market.
Whether $60,000 is the bottom or not, let the market decide. I just need to ensure that when I truly understand it next time, my principal is still intact, and I am still at the table.
比特币子棋
Many people say 60,000 is the bottom, but I still want to wait, even if I miss out!
The longer I stay in the crypto circle, the more I realize that those who truly survive several bull and bear cycles all have a bit of "caution".
In the first two cycles, when trading, I always felt that every penny in the market should have a share for myself.
When BTC starts, I fear missing out;
When ETH rises, I quickly look for the next surge;
When SOL goes up, I check which other public chains haven't moved yet.
When I see Meme suddenly double, even though I don't know what the project is about, I still can't help but rush in.
Back then, the biggest fear wasn't losing money, but others making money while I didn't.
BTC hovered around 60,000 for two months, many people already started calling it the bottom, ETFs were supporting it, and the price had dropped a lot, it really looked cheap.
If it were before, I probably would have jumped in.
Because I would think: What if 60,000 USD really is the bottom? What if it rebounds directly tomorrow? What if everyone else has made money and I'm still waiting?
But after experiencing several bull and bear cycles, I'm increasingly afraid of this kind of "what if".
What really costs people dearly in trading is often not missing out, but unwillingness to accept it.
Unwilling to miss out, so chasing before the trend confirms;
Unwilling to take losses, so holding on even after breaking the plan;
Unwilling to take profits, so watching gains ride a roller coaster;
Unwilling to admit mistakes, so turning short-term trades into mid-term, mid-term into value investing, and ending up confused as a shareholder.
It's the same with 60,000 USD now.
Many people say 60,000 is the bottom, but I still want to wait, even if I miss out!
The longer I stay in the crypto circle, the more I realize that those who truly survive several bull and bear cycles all have a bit of "caution".
In the first two cycles, when trading, I always felt that every penny in the market should have a share for myself.
When BTC starts, I fear missing out;
When ETH rises, I quickly look for the next surge;
When SOL goes up, I check which other public chains haven't moved yet.
When I see Meme suddenly double, even though I don't know what the project is about, I still can't help but rush in.
Back then, the biggest fear wasn't losing money, but others making money while I didn't.
BTC hovered around 60,000 for two months, many people already started calling it the bottom, ETFs were supporting it, and the price had dropped a lot, it really looked cheap.
If it were before, I probably would have jumped in.
Because I would think: What if 60,000 USD really is the bottom? What if it rebounds directly tomorrow? What if everyone else has made money and I'm still waiting?
But after experiencing several bull and bear cycles, I'm increasingly afraid of this kind of "what if".
What really costs people dearly in trading is often not missing out, but unwillingness to accept it.
Unwilling to miss out, so chasing before the trend confirms;
Unwilling to take losses, so holding on even after breaking the plan;
Unwilling to take profits, so watching gains ride a roller coaster;
Unwilling to admit mistakes, so turning short-term trades into mid-term, mid-term into value investing, and ending up confused as a shareholder.
It's the same with 60,000 USD now.
Why do positions that are hardest to cut losses on often end up losing the most?
When I first entered the market, I always felt that selling meant admitting defeat.
A 10% drop made me want to wait for a rebound, a 30% drop made me start researching fundamentals, and a 50% drop made me simply tell myself to "hold long-term."
Later I realized that many so-called beliefs were just unwillingness to admit a wrong judgment.
Human nature treats the purchase price as an anchor: above cost is called a rise, below cost is called undervalued, but the market doesn’t know where you bought, nor will it pull the price back just because you desperately want to break even.
The deepest pit I fell into wasn’t misjudging a project, but constantly averaging down to prove I was right, increasing my position size, limiting my options, and when a real opportunity finally appeared, all my funds were stuck in the story of "just wait a little longer and it will come back."
Cutting losses doesn’t mean selling immediately after a drop.
Write down your logic before buying: why you buy and under what conditions your judgment is invalidated. Price fluctuations can be tolerated, but if the logic breaks, it’s time to exit.
The most expensive cost in trading is never a small loss, but spending time, capital, and emotions to maintain a wrong decision over the long term.
Remember: admitting a mistake only costs you one loss, refusing to admit it might cost you an entire cycle.
The information flow determines what we are exposed to every day and will also affect our way of thinking in the long run, so I prefer to watch less of the hype and reserve my attention for research, action, and continuous output.
I usually don't like to follow gossip.
Who is fighting with whom, which project is tearing each other apart again—it's okay to glance occasionally, but following it long-term only drains your emotions. After the excitement is over, your position won't improve, nor will your understanding automatically increase.
I prefer to focus on people who bring new information or truly interactive friends. This is not because I think I'm smarter than anyone else, but simply because attention is limited.
If there's one more noise in the timeline, you might miss truly important information.
I increasingly agree with a creator's mindset: instead of spending time judging others, it's better to continuously build your own content and capabilities.
When the market is good, everyone can talk about opportunities; when the market cools down, those who are still willing to research, review, and seriously produce output are the ones worth following long-term.
I don't want to gain a sense of existence by following gossip, nor maintain relationships through mutual follows. I focus on doing my own thing and continuously producing valuable content. Over time, the content will naturally filter out like-minded people for you.
Why do many people who get the direction right still end up losing money?
After trading for a long time, I realized that correctly predicting the direction is just the cheapest skill. What truly determines profit or loss is the position size you use, how much volatility you can withstand, and whether you admit your mistakes.
I used to have this experience: I judged that BTC would rise in the mid-term, so I kept increasing my position size, even using leverage.
In the end, the direction was indeed correct, but before the rise, the price dropped 10%, and I couldn't hold on and stopped out; when the price restarted, I chased the high unwillingly, resulting in "correct view, losing account."
The market won't take care of your entry position just because you got the big trend right. Especially in the crypto market, the main players like to clear out those with heavy positions and insufficient patience before starting in the right direction.
Another more common scenario: taking profits quickly with small positions but continuously adding to losing large positions. You make pocket money when winning, but one mistake can wipe out all the profits from the previous months.
Later I understood that trading is not a guessing game of ups and downs but a game of odds management. It's not scary to be wrong on direction; what's scary is one mistake that can knock you out. Being right on direction doesn't guarantee profit either; losing control of position size can turn correctness into disaster.
Remember: the market rewards not those who are right the most times, but those who lose the least when wrong and can stay in the game when right.
The most dangerous signal has appeared: neither falling nor rising!
$BTC has been retreating from around $125,000, with highs continuously moving lower. The rebounds are always suppressed by the descending trendline. Recently, the price has been consolidating around $64,000 with decreasing volatility, approaching the end of a converging triangle.
This pattern is very similar to $6000 in 2018 and $20,000 in 2022.
At that time, the market believed the risk had been released and the consolidation zone was safe enough.
However, in 2018 it fell to about $3200, and in 2022 after the FTX incident it dropped to about $15,500.
Before both breakdowns, there were similar characteristics: the major trend was still downward, volatility kept narrowing, and rebound highs kept getting lower.
It’s the same now.
ETF funds have supported the downside but have not pushed BTC to break through the descending trendline, indicating that new buying is being absorbed by miners, long-term holders, and trapped positions.
Therefore, long-term consolidation within a downtrend may not be a buildup but could be the exhaustion of the last support.
$65,500-$67,000: Only a volume-backed hold here offers a chance to see $70,000-$73,000
$61,000-$62,000: A break below indicates the triangle will resolve downward
$58,000-$60,000: The last defensive platform; losing this may target $52,000-$55,000
Currently, low-volatility oscillation has lasted 2 months, and in Q4 we expect a bottom and a real big opportunity! (Looking forward to another perfect dip and rebound) #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
In short: The CPI will determine the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path in September. The key is not the data level itself, but whether inflation risks getting out of control again.
Currently, the market has started to bet on a policy shift in September. However, if the CPI continues to decline, it indicates easing inflationary pressure, and the market will further reduce concerns about rate hikes, potentially supporting risk assets.
Conversely, if the CPI rebounds beyond expectations, especially if core inflation rises again, the market may reprice:
Rising rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields increase → U.S. dollar strengthens → U.S. stocks, BTC, and other risk assets come under pressure.
The biggest contradiction in the market now is that economic data has not shown a clear recession, but inflation has not fully returned to target. If the CPI data is hotter than expected, the expectation that the Fed will "maintain high interest rates for longer" will strengthen.
For BTC, the key is not the CPI itself, but how the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields move after the data release.
A weaker dollar and falling yields are favorable for BTC to break through resistance near 66000;
If yields continue to rise, BTC may retest support around 63000–64000.
Remember: The market is not trading a single CPI report, but the Fed's policy direction over the coming months. Data changes expectations, and expectations change capital flows.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？
ETF inflows of $860 million, why can't BTC still rise?
In the past 5 trading days, BTC spot ETFs have had a net inflow of about 13,532 BTC, equivalent to approximately $860 million, but the price still hasn't stabilized above $65,000.
The money hasn't disappeared; it has been absorbed by sell orders.
The $65,000 to $66,000 range is a previous high-volume trading zone, where trapped positions and short-term funds are cashing out. ETF buying still needs to absorb miners', long-term holders', and institutions' portfolio adjustments.
This data indicates two things:
Without ETF absorption, BTC might have already fallen back to $62,000 to $63,000; but despite such large inflows, it still can't break through $65,000, which also shows heavy selling pressure above.
For the short term, focus on two levels:
Hold above $65,800, watch $66,600 to $67,500
Break below $64,000, watch $63,200, and if lost, then $62,500
It's not that no one is buying now; rather, buying is temporarily being absorbed by selling. A true bullish signal would be if the same ETF inflows start to push prices higher.
#财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？
Is SpaceX's surge a reversal or just short covering?
SpaceX rebounded from $104.83 to $136.10, rising nearly 25% in two days. The rise was not driven by new positive news but by the market's relief that the anticipated selling pressure from lock-up expirations did not materialize.
Q2 revenue was about $7.8 billion, up over 90% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to $541 million. After approximately 912 million shares became eligible for circulation, the stock price actually rose with increased volume, forcing shorts to cover.
However, the trend reversal cannot be confirmed yet.
The stock price has retraced over 53% from the high of $225.64. Currently, support appears between $104 and $110, but the real dividing line is $135, which is both the IPO price and the cost basis for early investors.
Key points to watch next week:
- Holding above $135 and breaking through $142, then targeting $148 to $152
- Pulling back to $132-$135 without breaking down, maintaining strong consolidation
- Falling below $130, indicating this rally is more likely short covering, with downside to $122-$126
My judgment is that SpaceX may first test $138 to $142, then pull back to confirm $135. Only a strong volume-supported hold above $142 will give this rally a chance to upgrade from an oversold recovery to a phase reversal.
There is another lock-up expiration window in late August. Compared to daily gains, I am more concerned whether the stock can continue to hold $135 when the next batch of shares is released.
