Perpetual contracts are a pioneering derivative product in the crypto space with a long history, and funding rates are a key element of them. Currently, the funding rate indicator is rarely discussed, but its effectiveness remains relatively solid when viewed over historical cycles. At present, based on daily-level funding rate statistics, the number of days with "negative bias" has been quite long—long enough to indicate that $BTC is already in a reversal zone. We can see that during the last bear market, the FTX incident pushed the funding rate down to -0.1%, after which the market entered a low-volatility state; similarly, with the current Strategy credit crisis, the funding rate has remained negative for an extended period, and the market has also entered a low-volatility state. Contract open interest and options open interest are also approaching new lows. There might be one last drop, but there is no longer momentum to drive a "major crash." Let's see if this simple funding rate indicator still holds true this time.

$SPCX zoomed in to the 15-minute level, the short position transaction price looks relatively advantageous. The first take-profit target I personally look at is around $130, planning to close part of the position then and move the stop loss to the entry price. Next time the market starts to unlock panic on new stocks, close all positions.

$SPCX has entered a resistance zone, and my personal short position has been executed. SpaceX's “General” Electric Fish Brother put forward a very reasonable view, suggesting that from the perspective of the short-selling main force, it is very likely they will start building positions after the price breaks through $150. I believe the reason is that above $150 there will be a large amount of liquidity, short stops, long chasing, and volume turnover. It depends on today and tomorrow; if it firmly holds above $155, the shorts will have to consider retreating first.

$SPCX has recently rebounded strongly, but its high valuation and long-term unlocking will continue to cause selling pressure and supply. The blue box area in the chart is a major resistance, and I personally plan to enter short positions in this region.

$BTC regular coordinates, daily-level downtrend line friction. $BTC options volatility, one-month ATM IV perspective, at a low extreme; the last time it was this low was on the eve of the spot ETF approval.

$XAU daily level, the downtrend line has been decisively broken, the pullback may have ended, and a return to the bull market rally is imminent. Meanwhile, silver XAG, digital gold BTC, and digital silver ETH all show a similar rhythm. Gold, silver, real, virtual, all the Saints are ready.

Many people think that the recent sale of $BTC by the Trump family is bearish, but one possibility is that they are reducing their holdings to comply with the Ethics clause, which is a prerequisite for the Clarity Act to pass. Everyone knows that we are currently in the bottom range of the BTC bear market, and the Trump family naturally knows this too. Selling at this time might be a kind of "sacrifice." If the Clarity Act unexpectedly passes, it could trigger an epic bull market rush.

People are always waiting for a lower price, waiting for the final drop liquidation, waiting at 60K for 57K, waiting at 57K for 54K, but never pulling the final trigger. Just like Chen Yongren said, we are always thinking about what tomorrow will be like, but never consider if there will be a tomorrow.

$QQQ 4-hour level, AMD model. First tense battle, then TACO. After obtaining liquidity, it returns to the consolidation range, with a decline being the least likely option recently.