#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 The fire under gold is still burning. What's even more interesting is that gold and Bitcoin are simultaneously attracting capital. Over the past five trading days, ETFs for both have collectively absorbed more than $7 billion, setting a historical record for the same period. BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $1.5 billion, GLD had a net inflow of $3.4 billion. Both sides are buying—not an either-or choice, but both. These two assets are telling the same story—the US dollar credit is loosening. Ray Dalio directly advised reducing bond holdings, allocating 10% to 15% to gold, and holding a small amount of Bitcoin. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to the highest level since the pandemic; capital is treating both as aligned tools to hedge fiat credit risk. Here’s my view. The simultaneous strengthening of gold and Bitcoin is more important than how much each individual asset has risen. Capital flowing concurrently into non-sovereign assets indicates the market is pricing in the same thing—the loosening of US dollar credit, and US Treasuries are no longer considered "risk-free assets." Gold is driven by real interest rates, safe-haven demand, and central bank allocations, while Bitcoin is driven by liquidity, ETF buying, and leverage changes. The driving logics are not exactly the same, but both ultimately point in the same direction—the systemic increase in allocation weight to non-sovereign assets. Continued synchronized inflows on both sides indicate capital is systemically increasing allocations to non-sovereign assets. If divergence ever occurs, that will be the time to reassess. For now, the direction is very clear. What are your thoughts? $BTC $ETH

Good evening Brothers Have a nice weekend The volatility is not that high Have a good rest $BTC

#财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件 Looking at this AI earnings season, there is one core change. NVIDIA is still NVIDIA, with revenue doubling and data centers accounting for over 90%. But Marvell, which delivered both growth and guidance, saw its stock price fail to hold. The market has moved past the stage of "valuation based solely on growth" and is now focusing on whether orders can truly materialize. A new variable has emerged in storage — ChangXin Memory Technologies. The software side is even more worth watching, with CrowdStrike, Salesforce, and Okta all showing improvements in earnings and guidance. The market is reclassifying the AI sector. Among the three chains—compute power, storage, and software—whoever can convert demand into stable profits and cash flow will continue to enjoy a premium. Those relying solely on storytelling to support valuations will be rapidly weeded out in this differentiation. The impact on the crypto space is twofold. First, AI projects that are purely speculative are finding it increasingly difficult to survive. Even U.S. stocks are pressuring companies to deliver profits, and crypto projects that rely only on narratives to support valuations will be accelerated in elimination. Capital will concentrate on projects that generate real revenue. Second, once recurring revenue is established on the software side, the overall profitability stability of tech stocks will improve, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in the long term. AI has shifted from "who burns money faster" to "who can make money." Hardware is expanding, storage is experiencing a dual overlay of cycles plus AI, and the software side is beginning to realize returns. The three chains follow completely different pricing logics. What are your thoughts?

#Iran Opens Temporary Corridor, US Refuses to Restore Old Agreement Iran's move is indeed quite clever. But the real key is not that Iran allowed passage, it's that the US directly rejected the old agreement. The US no longer wants to negotiate; a researcher from the UK bluntly said—the old memorandum of understanding is effectively dead. The current situation is quite tangled. The impact on the crypto community goes in two directions. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The temporary passage indeed reduces the short-term risk of shipping disruptions, but with Iran's conditions and the US refusal, restrictions could tighten again at any time. As long as obstacles to oil exports and fund settlements remain unresolved, oil prices will oscillate within this range. Inflation expectations follow oil prices. When oil prices surge, inflation expectations rise. The Fed's rate hike expectations haven't fully retreated yet; if oil prices spike again due to sanctions escalation, expectations for rate cuts will be further compressed, making short-term pressure on risk assets highly probable. Here’s my take. Iran's nominal opening of the corridor is actually passing the ball back to the US—if you want full access, first meet my conditions. The US's outright rejection of the old agreement means they caught the ball but didn't accept the conditions. Achieving a comprehensive agreement in the short term will be difficult. The real focus of this game isn't the corridor itself, but whether economic sanctions will further escalate after the US refuses to negotiate. What do you think? $BTC $ETH

#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 Elon Musk is once again correcting Wall Street. Morgan Stanley released a research report saying SpaceX could reach $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2040. Morgan Stanley also gave an overweight rating and a $300 target price. Musk directly replied on X — I personally estimate that $3.5 trillion could be achieved around 2033. Seven years earlier. The tone is outrageously confident. He also predicted reaching $1 trillion by 2030, and now he’s directly jumping to $3.5 trillion, taking bigger and bigger steps. The difference between these two isn’t just numbers, it’s the commercialization speed of Starship. Morgan Stanley’s model is already quite aggressive, based on two launches per day per launch pad, 5,800 Starship launches per year by 2040, requiring only 8 launch pads. SpaceX’s new base in Louisiana plans for 15 launch pads. That means even if the new base isn’t fully built, SpaceX can still meet Morgan Stanley’s 2040 expectations. But Musk believes even the goals he set for himself are underestimated. The gap between Wall Street and Musk isn’t just seven years, it’s two completely different narrative logics. One looks at the number of launch pads and launch frequency, the other sees Starship, Starlink, and AI computing power integrated into one infrastructure. What do you think? $BTC $ETH

Are there any fans stuck in a loss? Comment below I'll help you take a look DDdD $BTC $ETH

Have a nice weekend Rest well $BTC

#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK This matter deserves careful consideration. First, the compliance channel has been opened. In May, support was just added for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and within three months it has expanded. SOL, AVAX, and LINK are all top market cap, mature ecosystem coins, indicating that traditional financial giants' acceptance of crypto assets has moved from "testing the waters" to "orderly expansion." Second, it solves the problem of "how compliant funds can buy." Retail investors don’t need to open exchange accounts or fuss with wallets; they can operate directly within their existing stock accounts, just like buying Apple or Tesla shares. The threshold is greatly lowered, which will attract a large amount of incremental capital. Third, the chosen coins are very deliberate. Solana represents high-performance public chains, Avalanche is an EVM-compatible ecosystem, and Chainlink is the leader in oracles. These three cover different tracks, encompassing smart contract public chains and infrastructure. In the future, with staking and physical deposit/withdrawal functions, the channel between on-chain ecosystems and compliant funds will be further connected. In the short term, there are three catalysts: sentiment catalyst—SOL surged over 11% immediately after the news; capital expectation—the potential buying power of 40 million accounts, which even with a low conversion rate, is enough to change the supply-demand pattern; compliance endorsement—this is more effective than any KOL hype, equivalent to Wall Street’s official stamp of approval. The impact on the crypto space is very clear—this is not simply a "listing benefit," but a structural benefit of "compliance channel expansion." What do you think? $SOL

#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold correlation strengthens ETF inflows continue, and spot buying has indeed not stopped. But on the other side, profit-taking is happening, options hedging is increasing, and shorts are re-accumulating. Large on-chain longs and shorts are both adding positions, with these two forces clashing head-on at the 80,000 threshold. More interesting than the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is another change—Bitcoin is starting to cluster with gold. This means capital is redefining Bitcoin's position. Previously, it was like a tech stock shadow: when the Nasdaq rose, it rose; when it fell, it fell. Now the market is beginning to place it in the "hard currency" basket, alongside gold. Once this narrative is confirmed, the long-term valuation logic for Bitcoin undergoes a qualitative change—tech stocks are valued based on earnings and growth, while gold is valued based on monetary credit and fiscal discipline. The valuation ceilings corresponding to these two logics are not on the same level. In the short term, the bull-bear battle at the 80,000 mark continues, and the direction has not been fully determined. But the signal of strengthened gold correlation is more worth tracking than short-term price fluctuations. What do you think? $BTC $ETH $XAU

This weekend The volatility probably won't be that high Try to focus mainly on shorting the rebound There shouldn't be much of a problem DDDd $BTC $ETH