Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin to hit $135K by Q3, surge to $200K by year-end

• Standard Chartered continues to stand by its bold long-term call of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028.
• The bank’s $200,000 forecast for year-end 2025, if realized, would mark a near-doubling from current levels.
• In his note, Kendrick argued that the dynamics driving BTC have fundamentally changed.

Standard Chartered is doubling down on its bullish outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting the cryptocurrency will rise to $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and breach the $200,000 mark by the close of 2025.

The prediction, published in a research note Wednesday, attributes the strength of Bitcoin’s rally to increased institutional demand, especially from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries.

The latest projections come from Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, who has been consistently optimistic on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

In his note, Kendrick argued that the dynamics driving BTC have fundamentally changed, marking a departure from the cryptocurrency’s historical halving cycle patterns.

The new drivers behind BTC’s movements

Kendrick said that Bitcoin has “moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle,” referring to the roughly four-year interval when the Bitcoin network reduces mining rewards by half.

This mechanism has historically driven supply shocks that led to price booms followed by corrections, often within an 18-month window.

However, Kendrick said the latest halving in April 2024 is unlikely to follow the same trajectory due to the emergence of stronger demand drivers absent in previous cycles.

“We expect prices to resume their uptrend, supported by continued strong ETF and Bitcoin treasury buying,” Kendrick wrote.

According to the report, ETF and corporate treasury flows accounted for approximately 245,000 BTC in the second quarter of 2025 alone.

Kendrick projects that level will be exceeded in both the third and fourth quarters, citing deepening institutional adoption as a structural support for higher prices.

His comments come as spot Bitcoin ETF flows in the United States turned negative for the first time in more than two weeks.

According to data from SoSoValue, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $342.3 million in net outflows on Tuesday, ending a 15-day streak of positive inflows that had totaled $4.8 billion.

Bitcoin at $500K

Standard Chartered continues to stand by its bold long-term call of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028.

This forecast is premised on sustained institutional interest and broader macroeconomic conditions that could favour digital assets over traditional stores of value.

The bank’s $200,000 forecast for year-end 2025, if realized, would mark a near-doubling from current levels.

As of Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $107,500.

Despite the recent outflow from ETFs, Kendrick’s outlook suggests that large-scale institutional allocation to Bitcoin remains a secular trend, with growing interest from corporate treasuries potentially altering how firms manage balance sheet assets.

Bitcoin is up more than 70% over the past year.

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