Posteo

#WallerEyesAugCPI Waller’s latest comments make the September decision feel more conditional than the market was pricing a few days ago 👀 He said he favors holding if August inflation continues to improve, but could support a hike if the data comes in strong. Next week’s CPI and PPI will be central to that call, while he described the labor market as satisfactory. Jobless claims came in at 206K, close to expectations and still within this year’s familiar range. Meanwhile, CME odds of a 25bp hike fell to 50.2% from above 70%, as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar weakened 📉 To me, that shift shows how little conviction the market currently has. Expectations are moving sharply even though the underlying data has changed only gradually. Tonight’s payroll report should add another clue—but inflation still looks like the final test before the September meeting.