Publier

#PPIHotCPINext August PPI came in hot at 5.4% YoY, but the details make the inflation picture less straightforward than the headline suggests 🌡️ Energy and commodity prices kept producer inflation elevated, while core PPI rose just 0.2% MoM—slightly below expectations. Treasury yields and the dollar still strengthened, and markets moved toward higher odds of a September Fed hike. What caught my attention is how much of the pressure is coming from supply-sensitive categories rather than broad underlying inflation. Monetary policy can reduce demand, but it can’t directly solve energy disruptions or geopolitical risk. The ECB’s 25bp hike and higher 2027–2028 inflation forecasts reinforce that concern, especially with the Middle East identified as a major upside risk 🛢️ Tonight’s CPI is the final major input before the September 16 Fed decision. I’m curious whether consumer prices confirm the PPI warning—or show that producer costs haven’t fully passed through.