#NorwaySWFEyes80BUSTCut

🐂 The US Treasury has just repurchased $12.5 billion of its own debt. Potential market impact: 💰 Gold → Bullish | Yields decline 🪙 BTC → Mildly supported | Increased liquidity Are you leaning towards gold or crypto given this news?

JUST IN: World's largest sovereign wealth fund plans "deep cuts" to its US Treasury holdings. $W

#NorwaySWFEyes80BUSTCut Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s approximately $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, has proposed reducing government bonds from 70% to 50% of its fixed-income benchmark. The change could lower its US Treasury exposure by nearly $80 billion, reducing Treasuries from approximately 34.1% to 21.9% of the government-bond benchmark. Despite the dramatic headline, this is not necessarily an exit from the United States or the dollar. Much of the capital would move into higher-yielding US non-government debt, including mortgage-backed securities connected to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The proposal is primarily about improving returns and diversification rather than making a political statement. Nevertheless, it illustrates a wider challenge for the Treasury market: major investors are demanding more compensation for holding long-duration government debt. The plan still requires political consideration and is expected to reach Norway’s parliament in spring 2027, meaning any adjustment would probably be gradual.

⚠️The decline in China's Treasury holdings is UNPRECEDENTED: China's share of total US Treasuries outstanding is down to just 2%, its lowest level since 2001. This marks a -12 percentage point decline from its 2011 peak, when China's official Treasury holdings reached $1.3 trillion. Since then, China has cut its holdings by more than HALF, to $633.4 billion, the lowest level since 2008, during the Great Financial Crisis. China has now trimmed its holdings by -$183 billion since the start of 2024, according to the latest Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, which tracks foreign holdings and flows of US securities. China is reducing its exposure to US government debt, adding another structural headwind for Treasury demand. The de-dollarization trend is set to continue.

Bonds at 4.8% with $40T of principal is not a safe haven. It’s a duration trap with a coupon. Gold has no maturity date.

I think people are missing the most interesting part of the Treasury buyback story... Technically, this is NOT QE. Treasury has had a standing buyback program since 2024 for liquidity/cash management && the expanded long-end program doesn't even formally begin until September 9th. But markets don't trade definitions... The trade is more times than ot, what the definition IMPLIES. US debt > $40 TRILLION. July deficit = $432 BILLION. Long-end yields keep becoming a problem. && now the issuer is increasingly stepping into its own debt market. If yields keep bouncing back after every intervention while Bitcoin + gold continue higher... Then maybe the trade isn't "rates are going lower." Maybe the trade is simply: The debasement trade, the dollar will continue to be worth less, thus assets inherently become worth more. Not because they are GROWING, but because what they are denominated in is worth less...

Norway's $2 trillion sovereign fund proposes deep cuts to US Treasury holdings

Norway’s mammoth wealth fund wants to cut its holdings of government bonds, chiefly affecting U.S. Treasurys, as it seeks greater returns elsewhere.