Welcome everyone! Feel free to ask questions, discuss the market, and chat here. I will post some real-time news in the group, such as earnings reports, non-farm payroll data, etc. $BTC I hate you, hurry up and go up, is it possible that the rate hikes are just a smokescreen? #PPI、CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days

#波动雷达：币种异动观察 It keeps rising when I don't enter, but drops as soon as I do. $SOON This move really made me laugh in frustration through the screen. In just a few minutes, it took off vertically from 0.2329 to 0.2777, nearly a 20% increase. Who wouldn't be dazzled by such a rapid surge? I roughly gritted my teeth and chased around 0.2761. But as soon as I got in, it just touched the top slightly and started dumping, though it never really fell below, now stuck oscillating around 0.2734. The screenshot shows a glaring red floating loss, paired with that -1.41U stop loss — a textbook "perfectly bought at the highest point" experience card. What's most frustrating? That coin's recent volume surge pushed the RSI straight above 86, clearly overbought. Logically, shorting it makes sense, but the manipulative whales just keep brushing against your stop loss repeatedly, messing with your nerves. Thinking back to those nights tortured by $BTC longs calculating margin, this trade only lost 0.52U with a tiny position, but the psychological defeat feels the same — clearly got the direction right, but bought at the worst possible spot. Forget it, just consider it spending 1U for some entertainment. The stop loss is set, no adding to the position, and no getting emotional. Our position is small now, so we can afford to wait it out. Let the whales perform their show; we'll quietly watch and wait to pick up the meat when it really drops.

#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $ZEC woke up and went straight to 1638, reaching a high of 1695, up nearly 6% in 24 hours. It took off vertically from 1550 without any decent pullback. Why the rise? A quick look at the news revealed that Grayscale applied for a Zcash income-type ETF, planning to distribute dividends every two weeks! No wonder the funds are rushing in crazily; this is clearly a compliant entry ticket for traditional institutions. Honestly, watching it rise makes me want to pat my thigh until it bruises. I held some at 500 before but didn’t hold on and sold. Now it’s almost at 1700. Back then, doubling felt great; looking back, those who sold too early really hurt themselves. Missed it? Well, better to miss than to chase high and get stuck.

Small position trading, focusing on quick in and quick out. This $XPL trade really made me laugh out loud. With 50x leverage and a small 200U position, shorted from 0.11719 to 0.11525 in 28 minutes, directly grabbing +78% return, earning 3.1U and running. This is a completely different world compared to that $BTC long position that tormented me for two months recently. Use money you can afford to lose, quick in and quick out, no love affairs with the market. Spot those few minutes of spikes, take a bite and run, never greedy. This is how trading should be! Even if this trade goes the wrong way, with 4U principal and 50x leverage, a tiny reverse move wipes it out, but it’s just a 4U loss, never waking me up in the middle of the night. After surviving the darkest nights, my mindset has really changed a lot. No longer chasing doubling every trade, just aiming to steadily scrape some small silver from the market every day. Holding a big pile of U to earn interest, occasionally itching to play a small position, winning adds a chicken leg, losing doesn’t affect the big picture. This trade was done beautifully, wrapping up, time to sleep!

#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 On one side, institutions are desperately scooping up assets, while on the other, macro data is sounding alarm bells wildly. This is quite surreal. The Federal Reserve just restarted rate hikes, with expectations for another hike in October soaring above 70%, the 30-year US Treasury yield breaking through 5.5%, and consumer one-year inflation expectations spiking to 4.6%. All data points are pressing risk assets down hard. And yet? $BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive days, cumulatively attracting $2.8 billion, with nearly $1 billion flowing in on September 21 alone, marking a new high for the year. Even though BTC dropped from 87,000 to 84,000, ETF funds keep flowing in. This is clearly a battle of the titans. Wall Street institutions are using real money to buy the dip, braving macro pressures. But looking closely, daily inflows have dropped from nearly $1 billion to $191 million, raising questions about how long the ammunition will last.

#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ The Iranian president said he does not want nuclear weapons and is willing to negotiate; the foreign minister said they are willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days (but with conditions); regarding the airspace, it's "if you open, I open; if you close, I close." The stance is quite low-key, clearly aiming to ease the tension. This news directly boosted the market, and the logic is simple: geopolitical risk recedes -> oil prices fall -> inflation expectations cool down -> Fed's rate hike pressure lessens -> risk assets (Bitcoin, US stocks) get a breather. Once the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens, the global energy supply chain's tight constraints can loosen. But if you ask me whether the negotiations will succeed, I still have my doubts. In Iran's third point, it clearly states "but with the condition of meeting... (requirements)." This is a typical bargaining chip. For the US, completely lifting sanctions is impossible; for Iran, reopening the strait without lifting sanctions is also unacceptable. This kind of "you make a concession, then I make a concession" negotiation often goes through twists and turns, and if someone throws a cold shot in the middle, they might immediately fall out again. When I saw the news, I was a bit excited, thinking about whether to chase a long position. But then I thought about how recently I was exhausted from being hit on both long and short sides, and the feeling of watching the market at midnight calculating margin is really unpleasant, so I decided against it.

#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Watching the price movements of these coins today, I'm honestly a bit confused. $XPL unlocked 1.76 billion tokens today, worth $160 million, accounting for 63% of the circulating supply. Normally, such a massive unlock would crash the price, but instead, it rose 17%. Simply put, the negative news has been fully absorbed, and after a 94% drop, some capital is speculating at the low level. CYPH is even more impressive, directly benefiting from the $ZEC surge. This company has transformed into a ZEC treasury, holding 323,000 ZEC and acquiring a mining pool that accounts for 18% of the entire network's hash rate. ZEC has increased 21-fold in a year, and its unrealized gains in Q2 alone reached $46 million. Buying it is essentially buying a leveraged ZEC exposure with built-in mining. $GRASS hit the narrative of DePIN and infrastructure, and the project team is about to launch Stage 2, giving the market new expectations. The logic behind the rise of these coins differs: XPL is a case of negative news fully priced in, CYPH is riding the ZEC rally, and GRASS is driven by narrative rotation. But the common point is that none of their fundamentals suddenly improved; they are all driven by external sentiment. In this kind of market, chasing highs is easy to get trapped, better to just watch the show.

#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ The Fed just finished raising rates, and the expectation for another hike in October has been pushed down to 70%. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker even said that inflation hasn't made enough progress and more hikes might be needed. According to the old script, BTC should have been crushed by now. But this time it's different. Not only did Bitcoin not crash, it even briefly broke through 87,000 this week. Just take a look at the capital flow and everything becomes clear. On September 21, the US $BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $999 million, setting a new high for 2026. Not to mention Strategy's corporate treasuries, which are quietly increasing their holdings. Institutions are not fleeing during the rate hike cycle; instead, they're charging in. In short, BTC's sensitivity to interest rates is changing. Rate hikes used to drain liquidity, but now Wall Street treats BTC as an allocation asset, buying on dips and firmly absorbing selling pressure.

#财报观察员: Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over $COST Costco's earnings report really makes people love and hate it at the same time. Revenue reached 95.7 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year, and net profit increased nearly 15%. Such strong consumer demand indicates the US economy is still hot — but this is not good news for the crypto space. When the economy is good, expectations for rate hikes don't come down, so non-yielding assets like $BTC have to keep enduring. But I don't have time to worry about Bitcoin right now. The $WDC grid I have, with 168U principal, is at a floating loss of 1.47%, but thanks to the grid strategy, it has stubbornly squeezed out a +7.24% profit. The price is 455, range 430 to 499, liquidation price 180, temporarily safe. Without the grid, this position would have been cut long ago. What really puts my mind at ease is the optical communication grid running for 41 days. Entered at 78.6, it dropped to a low of 52, and every midnight I nervously watched the liquidation price. Now it has stubbornly recovered to 76.39, total return +32.69%, grid profit +67.25%, and I pushed the liquidation price down to 20.97 with extra margin, completely removing the liquidation alarm. So facing Micron's earnings report on October 1, I don't want to guess the direction. Costco has already proven consumer demand remains strong, and Micron's AI storage demand is very likely to be good as well. But the logic of “good data = aggressive rate hikes” is still the market's tightening curse.

#BTC pullback after a surge, has market rotation begun? What happened? $BTC and $XAU gold suddenly surged together! Last night’s scene was really a bit unexpected. BTC jumped directly from 83,500 back to 84,900, and gold also rebounded sharply from 4,251 to 4,278. Both candlesticks jumped up together, leaving me stunned. I quickly checked the news. It turned out that several Fed officials like Barr and Collins collectively turned hawkish again, shouting that there’s still a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike in October. Logically, with rising rate hike expectations, risk assets should fall, so why did they rise instead? Simply put, it’s the "bad news is already priced in" scenario playing out again. After the rate hike landed, BTC stubbornly held from 75,600 all the way up to 87,000, rising 13%. ETF funds flowed back nearly $1 billion in a single day, plus shorts were forced to cover in a squeeze, which propped up the market. Gold’s situation is even more absurd; the market is no longer trading on rate hikes but on "currency devaluation trades" — with the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repos, concerns over the dollar’s credit and debt have long outweighed the impact of short-term rates. Seeing through this logic actually calms me down. This kind of market just slaps you back and forth; chasing highs when it rises easily traps you, and panic selling when it falls hurts the most. What to watch next? Tonight about $15 billion worth of $BTC options expire, which is a big test. If the selling pressure can be absorbed, it means this rebound is backed by real money.