37度-流动性猎人
BTC holder since 2013 Building @SpiderPool_com 创业老兵|币圈踩雷达人|远洋捕捞体验者|2016交易所|2017挖矿|2022暴雷破产|2026AI机房/OKX最高排行第9交易员 首创流动性交易，擅长Liquidity Hunting
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Is ledger safe
Established and open-source, it's reliable. Cold wallets (hardware wallets) carry almost only personal risk, while exchange risks are nearly global. Hackers worldwide target the funds on exchanges, and with AI support, exchanges manage vast hot and cold wallet systems, extensive products, and user bases, which have many vulnerabilities. This is a long-term battle of offense and defense. Funds stored in cold wallets can at least ensure survival in the worst-case scenario. Ideally, you avoid suffering major setbacks or returning to square one due to force majeure or black swan risks. This portion of funds does not seek high returns; safety comes first, and once deposited, it should be moved as little as possible. The primary role of exchanges is trading, matching orders, and providing liquidity, not custody. My principle is to build positions at the bottom and immediately transfer to cold wallets, only moving funds when selling at high points. After selling, I immediately transfer the USDT back to cold wallets and diversify profits into cash, stocks, gold, etc. Besides keeping some cash myself, it's best to transfer more funds to a few trustworthy relatives as a fallback. In case of operational mistakes, relatives, especially parents, can safeguard the funds (assuming they are reliable and not susceptible to scams). In the previous cycle, my biggest concern was exchanges suddenly halting withdrawals or collapsing, so I bought and sold in batches, never exceeding $100,000 per transaction, executing market orders and withdrawing immediately. When I cleared my Ethereum at the top, I didn't even want the coins to leave my wallet; I directly swapped them for USDT within the wallet's aggregated DEX. I was willing to accept higher slippage for safety, considering it a worthwhile cost. At least half of my Ethereum position never left the hardware wallet.
$BTC 854 and 829 hit 123 times✅
$BTC 854 and 829 hit 123 times✅ This prediction has been verified again, 829 was almost precisely hit, 854 missed by just over 100 dollars, the main force showed some respect. Reviewing this market segment, this is a small bull market driven by ETFs, Wall Street entered, BTC rapidly broke through multiple options resistance levels on its way to 90k, showing extreme strength. Being too strong can be fragile, as macro conditions worsened due to Iran's toughness and the sudden spike in US Treasury yields, it was suppressed sharply at the high level and returned to being constrained by options positions. With options expiry at the end of the month, I mentioned in the quote that "the main force will try to keep the price between 84-86k these days, taking liquidity from both sides," which is indeed the case. The quickest breakout is expected tomorrow, Monday, with a reasonable timeframe around October 1st. A breakout means returning to the place where people call each other fools. After this options expiry and this consolidation, the main force will have to choose a direction again. I've been thinking these two days: are the fools going up or down? What do you think? I'd like to hear everyone's opinion. Here's mine first: If it goes up, it will break through the 90k gamma wall and open up upward space. If it goes down, it will enter the negative gamma zone, accelerating the decline, volatility will expand rapidly, plunging to 80k or even 75k. I'm not sure, but I judge that the fools going up is the higher probability. BTC has risen 51% from the bottom to the highest point. If this monthly candle closes up, it will be the third consecutive month of gains, and the probability of a strong pull in the fourth month is smaller. Quarter
Duge, why do I always lose money even when I hold on?
Knowing when to stop — the two most helpful characters I learned from the Tao Te Ching. I once wrote them in my WeChat name, in the notes of my frequently used apps, everywhere. They still remain in my most used app: Knowing when to stop, knowing when to stop means no danger. I don't know how to describe the wisdom of knowing when to stop in words. I'm still practicing it, but I think it suits you now. You can ponder it yourself, feel free to share.
Also, people who stubbornly hold on actually have an advantage. You just need to adjust your investment targets — switch to BTC and major US tech stocks, and you will definitely get rich. You won't have the trouble of knowing when to stop, you don't need to study it. Your advantage becomes your cash machine.
Investing is about finding a way and advantage that suits you, then leveraging that advantage. Don't compete with others on returns.
Others bought BTC at 57k and you hate yourself for not buying then? That's not it. Buying at the bottom is their advantage, not yours. But if you hold firmly at 70k for 10 years, and BTC reaches 1 million USD per coin, your returns will most likely far exceed those who bought at 57k.
Others made a profit with contracts at A9, but your contracts only involve holding positions and liquidation, and you hate yourself for being so stupid? That's not it. You're suited for a slow and steady way of making money. Even the market makers turn their heads when they see you, sighing: "What kind of stubborn retail investor is this, so tough and so stubborn!"
Others play with memecoins, easily making 1 million or 10 million, but you play with memecoins and even your own pet dog disdains you, and you hate memecoins and yourself? That's not it. Memecoins are not your track; slow and steady is your path.
A certain exchange was hacked, and I won't kick someone when they're down. What I want to say is that over the past five years, most KOLs have been bought off by exchanges. KOLs and exchanges are in cahoots, so the term "cold wallet" is rarely heard, cold wallet security is seldom promoted, and hardly anyone talks about moving funds to personal wallets. The phrase "private key" only appears when hackers steal assets through chain breaches... When everyone believes exchanges are very safe, that is the biggest industry risk. This will inevitably lead to a major setback sooner or later. The mistakes I've made will be repeatedly played out in the industry.
Exchanges should be treated like governments—placed in an untrusted position, assumed to be malicious by default, and subject to multiple layers of supervision and checks. But crypto exchanges are all like dictatorial emperors.
Here’s a reminder:
1. Keep the vast majority of your coins in personal wallets, preferably hardware wallets, secondly mobile wallets. Regardless of hot or cold, these are safer than keeping them on exchanges.
2. Diversify asset risk by holding coins, stocks, physical gold, etc. The principle is diversification.
3. If you can't do the above two, then spread your assets across three major exchanges.
Risk control, in my opinion, has nothing to do with asset size. Risk control is the foundation. If the foundation is not solid, no matter how large your assets are, you will have to pay it back. This is my painful experience 😭
$META $INTC are rallying against the trend, both about to hit new highs, one with an unrealized gain of 33%, the other 40%
My US stock account is back to break-even but still short 500,000😀
There are really many opportunities in US stocks, looking globally, from now on no one will miss out, brothers, don’t just focus on crypto, US stocks lead far ahead in liquidity, safety, and returns, for investing, it’s a must, to turn things around, it’s essential
US Stocks
$META was the standout last night, the brightest star on the floor, my largest position. Even though the market plunged yesterday, my overall position barely dipped. Meta went from being disliked by everyone to now being chased by all. This is non-hedged risk and reward. Anyone with a bit of foresight knows this is a bargain. The bloggers strongly recommending buying meta these past few months are worth following; they have independent thinking and stick to their convictions.
$GOOG dropped right after I bought it. At this price, I suggest everyone buy at my bottom and hold long-term. If we lose money, we'll seek Buffett's protection 😀
The pace of AI development will surpass most human understanding; you must heavily bet on it!
$ZEC 167 hit, the 121st time✅
Precisely hit 167, didn't hit 170 due to market influence, will save it for later
Before going to bed last night, I saw big players starting to go long on ZEC, so I followed the plan and cleared the spot at 1529
This wave from 1441 to 1529 didn't earn much, but the certainty was high, so I made a profit, which is okay
ZEC moves quite standardly, with fewer tricks, easier to trade, watching the market trend, I will continue to trade this asset later
$BTC New Range
873
854
842 Current Price
829
822
Yesterday, the main force took advantage of Iran's tough stance causing macro deterioration to execute a sharp drop, with a maximum pullback of nearly $4,000. Everyone should know, I have been mentioning the 25th; my original plan was to expect a market shift around the 25th, near 90k, but the main force chose to rush to 87k on the 21st, which was too fast. The market shift around the 25th turned into a drop. I originally planned to complete my position building before the 25th, waiting for a break above 90k, but it turned into defense. So, as you saw, I decisively took profits on contracts and altcoins a couple of days ago.
Currently, Gamma resistance is at 85k. The main force will try to keep the price between 84-86k these days, eating liquidity on both sides. Therefore, the 829 level is very unlikely to be eaten, 822 is a bit tougher but still quite probable. If the macro situation worsens further, breaking 822 could lead to around 800; on the upside, 854 is very probable, while 873 is unlikely under the current macro conditions unless the macro environment improves.
The current market is overheated, mainly reflected in altcoins, but BTC remains very strong, as can also be seen from the US stock crypto sector, which has basically not dropped much.
A bit luckier, I can sleep on time tonight, all confusion has vanished, feeling clear and transparent
37度-流动性猎人
Why at this time do I close contracts and reduce altcoins, but keep strong tokens and BTC?
Each cycle is each cycle. At the start of a bull run, before the main upward wave begins, altcoins usually explode with gains ranging from 1 to 10 times. At this time, the market is extremely FOMO, and various explosive rallies fuel a wave of enthusiasm. The later script is mostly Bitcoin sucking liquidity; most altcoins falter, with only a few strong tokens able to sustain independent rallies. Because most altcoins in this early bull phase have no selling pressure above, it's like air. Spending $10,000 can double your investment, while most who spend $1,000,000 can't even imagine the gains. After prices rise, selling pressure arrives, and real money is needed to support the price. Many altcoin project leaders are also broke, especially after the last bull market where most altcoins suffered heavy losses, VCs were cut off and almost wiped out. Before this bull run, I haven't seen altcoin projects raising $50 million or $100 million with valuations of $1 billion. This round, project teams are the poorest, but also the altcoin market is undergoing the most thorough shakeout (1011+ bear market), which ironically results in the lowest cost for price surges. Therefore, this round's altcoin opportunities will be bigger than the last, so I have also added some air. If broke, then find money. There are many projects but little capital; most projects cannot find follow-up funding to push prices. Projects that can't find money will wait until the bull market to get funded because investors are also convinced by bull market gains. These projects suddenly start to exert strong force in the later stages, aiming to fuel the market sentiment to its peak. Returning to the early bull phase, most of this altcoin season is hype, making it hard to distinguish authenticity. I call this the first season of altcoins. Starting from the second season, the fake will be weeded out, leaving only strong tokens able to sustain independent rallies without being drained by Bitcoin, while a small portion of others will slightly have...