Публикация

September Fed hike expectations have moved up quickly, but I don’t think the decision is settled yet. Right now, markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of a September rate hike, after the Fed’s tone turned more hawkish around Jackson Hole. But we still have one very important piece of the puzzle coming: the August jobs report. This is where things get interesting for me. If NFP comes in stronger than expected and unemployment stays contained, it becomes much easier for the Fed to argue that the economy can handle another hike while inflation remains above target. But if hiring looks noticeably weaker, the conversation becomes more complicated fighting inflation is important, but the Fed also can’t completely ignore deterioration in the labor market. Personally, I think this NFP matters more than usual. I’m not only watching the headline jobs number; I’ll also be looking at unemployment and wage growth before deciding whether the report actually strengthens the hike case. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds $BTC