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SK Hynix: 70% CapEx Growth — Smart Bet or Potential Trap? 👀 SK Hynix’s capital expenditure surged more than 70% YoY in the first half of the year, with major investment flowing into HBM, advanced packaging, and next-generation NAND capacity. For the memory industry, that immediately raises an uncomfortable question: Is Hynix securing the next AI growth wave — or expanding aggressively near the top of the cycle? The concern comes from a familiar pattern: Strong demand → aggressive capacity expansion → new supply comes online → prices fall → margins collapse → CapEx gets cut. This time, however, SK Hynix has a strong incentive to expand. If it moves too slowly, Samsung and Micron could capture more HBM market share. But there’s another risk investors shouldn’t ignore: double booking. When AI capacity is scarce, customers may over-order to secure supply. If AI infrastructure spending eventually slows or cloud providers become more focused on ROI, memory demand could be revised lower. And unlike GPUs or leading-edge foundry technology, memory remains a relatively cyclical business. That means a sudden decline in DRAM/NAND pricing could turn newly built capacity from a growth engine into a heavy depreciation burden. For me, the key question isn’t whether AI demand is real. It’s whether AI demand will grow fast enough to absorb all the capacity being built. If AI spending remains strong, Hynix’s investment could become a major competitive advantage. If the cycle turns, the same CapEx could become a major risk. The biggest opportunity and the biggest risk may be coming from the same place: AI-driven memory demand. $SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU #AI #Semiconductors #HBM #NAND #海力士扩产提速