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Hazi-X
#CPI and PPI are cooling simultaneously, but the divergence around future interest-rate policy is widening.
Inflation is slowing, but it’s still not fully under control. Core CPI remains around 2.5%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and hawkish Fed officials have not completely abandoned the possibility of keeping rates higher for longer.
The market may currently be pricing in too much confidence around a September pause. If upcoming Federal Reserve commentary turns more hawkish, rate expectations could quickly shift again—and that would put pressure on risk assets.
$BTC
On-chain data continues to show miners and large holders moving BTC toward exchanges, suggesting that selling pressure hasn’t completely disappeared.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also experienced periods of net outflows, indicating that buying momentum remains insufficient to absorb the supply overhead.
With significant resistance and selling pressure above $64,000, it may be difficult for BTC to immediately reclaim its previous highs. If the bullish macro narrative is already priced in, a pullback could follow.
$XAU
Gold remains elevated, but rising U.S. Treasury yields could become a headwind.
The 10-year Treasury yield still has room to move higher, potentially toward 4.8%, which could limit gold’s upside and increase short-term volatility.
Trading Plan
For now, I’m avoiding aggressive long positions.
If $BTC rebounds toward $63,800+, a small short could be considered with strict risk management.
For gold, short setups above $4,370 may be worth watching, but position size should remain controlled given the potential for sharp volatility around Federal Reserve speeches.
The key is simple:
Don’t chase the bullish narrative. Let price confirm the direction first.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000
